USA Politics

Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

I just ran a delegate projection for the Republicans, taking into account the various states' methods of handing out delegates.  I simply pulled Giuliani from the predictions, as it is difficult to tell how his voters will split (most will go for McCain, some for Romney, none for Huckabee).  Thompson's numbers are also removed from the predictions.  His voters will split between Huckabee and Romney.

The post Super Duper Tuesday total will look something like this:
McCain: 750
Huckabee: 327
Romney: 199
Paul: 11

This does *not* include PLEOs, which will give McCain around another 50 votes or so.  This means that if McCain and Huckabee do a President/Vice President deal, the race is over for the Republicans on Wednesday.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

The thing that scares me most about that is something that you posted earlier... Huckabee would be just a heart-beat away from the Presidency.  Likable guy, but (i think your quote was) 'a hint scary!'

However, I do think that a Obama/Edwards ticket would be a pretty strong one. 
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

wasted155 said:
However, I do think that a Obama/Edwards ticket would be a pretty strong one. 
Click to expand...

I think that would be the best thing that could happen to the US and the world.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Perun said:
I think that would be the best thing that could happen to the US and the world.
Click to expand...

What if their opposition was a drunk Pirate? :D
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Well, if it was a drunken pirate with a drunken sourbread pretzel baker, then i think that Obama/Edwards would loose.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Guys please don't spam this forum.  Thank you.

On the republican side...

The Governator endorses long-time friend McCain, after his other friend Giuliani drops out of the presidential race.

Republicans Battle for Votes and Money in California

From New York Times.

LOS ANGELES — Competition between Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney for California’s vast array of Republican delegates heated up on Thursday, with Mr. McCain receiving a major endorsement and Mr. Romney preparing to broadcast television advertisements in California and several other February 5 states.

Mr. Romney, who has done well with fundraising compared with his rivals but has repeatedly dipped into his own deep pockets, will buy advertising time in California’s expensive media markets, as well as markets in several other states across the country that are still being chosen, Carl Forti, the Romney campaign’s political director, said on Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has forged a moderate record and spoken out against partisanship in Washington, threw his political brawn behind Mr. McCain Thursday after the pair toured a solar energy company here.

Mr. Schwarzenegger, a longtime friend of Mr. McCain, pledged his support to the Republican front-runner while Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City who had dropped out of the presidential race less than 24 hours before, stood alongside with a noticeably pained expression on his face.

Mr. Schwarzenegger praised Mr. McCain as “a great American hero” who has “proven over and over again that he is reaching across the aisle in order to get things done.” Mr. McCain in turn praised Mr. Schwarzenegger, an Austrian immigrant, for inspiring voters with his talent and ambition. “I am doubly honored by this great, great American success story,” he said.

Mr. Giuliani, a moderate like Mr. McCain and Mr. Schwarzenegger who had hoped to receive the endorsement of the California governor for himself, was cast in the role of echoing Mr. Schwarzenegger’s accolades for Mr. McCain. Mr. Schwarzenegger, who said only recently that he was not planning to endorse before the California primary on Feb. 5, said he threw his support to Mr. McCain once Mr. Giuliani withdrew from the race.

“It’s all Rudy’s fault,” Mr. Schwarzenegger said when asked about why he changed his mind on an endorsement. “Both of them are friends of mine.” He added that he admired both men, and with both of them still in the race, “I felt like it was better to stay out of it.”

Traditionally political endorsements have made minimal differences to voters, but Mr. McCain’s advisers see the backing of a celebrity like Mr. Schwarzenegger as a big boost to them in California, where it is physically impossible for a candidate to reach all corners of the state. More than other endorsers, Mr. Schwarzenegger can attract widespread media attention and operate as the ultimate political surrogate as Mr. McCain campaigns elsewhere across the country. That said, Mr. Schwarzenegger does not help Mr. McCain with the Republican conservatives who Mr. Romney is trying to win.

The selection of the energy company, Solar Integrated Technologies, as the site of Mr. Schwarzenegger’s endorsement was meant to appeal to the large swath of California voters concerned about the environment, including many Republicans. But the issue nonetheless took a back seat to the political spectacle of the Terminator backing the Republican front-runner while the pugnacious loser, Mr. Giuliani, was on his best behavior nearby.

“Well it’s very clear that this is the proof of how much excitement solar energy can create,” Mr. Schwarzenegger said wryly to the milling crowd of reporters. “Look at this, we have 24 cameras out there, we have 100 journalists in here. I love it.”

Mr. Romney and Mr. McCain are both campaigning in California but perhaps equally urgent to both candidates is fundraising. Mr. Romney is scheduled to attend two fundraisers Thursday, one here and the other in Orange County, Calif., and Mr. McCain planning to attend one here.

All the campaigns will report their fourth-quarter financial figures on Wednesday, including what they have raised and spent. Mr. Romney had given more than $17 million of his own money through the third quarter. But the new figures will not show how much he spent over the last month in his effort to win in the early nominating contests.

It is unclear if Mr. McCain, who slightly outspent Mr. Romney in television advertising in the final days of their battle in Florida, will be matching Mr. Romney in the television ad wars in the lead-up to the crush of states that vote on February 5. Mr. McCain’s advisers indicated that they will be relying mostly on their candidate’s knack for getting free media, using news conferences, rallies and interviews, and that television advertising will be modest.

For instance, political endorsements like Mr. Schwarzenegger’s traditionally have made minimal differences to voters, but Mr. McCain’s advisers see the backing of a celebrity like Mr. Schwarzenegger as a big boost to them in California, where it is physically impossible for a candidate to reach all corners of the state. And more than other endorsers, Mr. Schwarzenegger can attract widespread media attention and operate as the ultimate political surrogate as Mr. McCain campaigns elsewhere across the country. That said, Mr. Schwarzenegger does not help Mr. McCain with the Republican conservatives who Mr. Romney is trying to win.

For Feb. 5 contests, Mr. McCain is planning to focus on some of the states with the largest delegate counts, including California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Missouri.

Mr. Romney’s advisers, hoping to turn the contest into a protected delegate fight, have performed some elaborate calculations to determine what kind of return they can get for their money in each state.

Utah, with its heavy concentration of Mr. Romney’s fellow Mormons, appears in the bank already. Beyond that, they are focusing on some states holding caucuses or state conventions, where a relatively small number of people will be shaping the outcome and they believe minimal organization and spending can make a significant difference. These include Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia and Minnesota.

The campaign has drawn up a broader list of battlegrounds where they believe they can be competitive, including Mr. Romney’s home state of Massachusetts, Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee and Georgia.

One complication in the sprint to the finish for Mr. Romney is the funeral on Saturday for Gordon Hinckley, the former president and prophet of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Salt Lake City. The moment will inevitably cause a flurry of attention once again on Mr. Romney’s Mormon faith and sidetrack him from the message he is trying to drive on the economy, bringing change to Washington and painting Mr. McCain as a moderate.

Mr. Romney is scheduled to stay overnight in Salt Lake City on Friday and attend the funeral on Saturday morning, valuable time off the trail given how little time remains before Feb. 5.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

I read an interesting opinion today.  It suggested that Giuliani has been manouvering for weeks to try to get onto a McCain ticket as the VP candidate, and McCain et. al are saying they won't choose a possible VP candidate till after Super Tuesday.  Now, that is interesting, because it suggests McCain believes Romney or (more likely) Huckabee can come back and have a powerful showing in Super Tuesday.  If Huckabee can snag appx 450 votes on Super Tuesday, he becomes only 200 or so behind McCain's likely total.

Huckabee is likely to win many later races in areas like North Carolina and Texas and the midwest, so over time, he may "snowball" and grow in influence.  It sounds like they are going to weigh the pros and cons.  If McCain is in a clearly dominant position, he may declare Giuliani as his running mate; if not, he might try and broker a deal with Huckabee.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Two things I am wondering: 

1) Does anyone really take Ahnold seriously anywhere other than CA?  It just seems like a joke around here that his endorsement carries any weight to anyone outside of the Republic of California.  I saw an interview he did with Geraldo during the fires in CA this past year and his statements bordered on ludicrous.

2)  Can Huckabee really carry any other states in the midwest?  I know he won in IA, but I just cant help but think that McCain is being seen as the republican that can carry the banner against the democrats.  It seems that republicans would be voting for the candidate that has the best chance against the Obama/Clinton 'we need change' chant.  Maybe I don't get the 'big picture', but I just can't wrap my head around Guiliani or Huckabee with any real power in this country.

Of course, with either of those two as a VP, maybe that would insure any democratic candidate would win the Presidential election.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Huckabee is polling ahead in several Southern and Midwestern states, like Alabama, Georgia, and Arkansas.  Because of the method by which the RNC awards delegates, strongly Republican states get more delegates than a strongly Democratic state of the same size.  So it is possible that Huckabee can gather a lot of delegates from the south and midwest, but unlikely that he can challenge McCain's likely stranglehold.

Also, I ran a delegates comparison for Obama vs. Clinton using polling data.  I did make one blanket assumption: that Edwards voters will break for Obama 3:1.

The results?  After Super Tuesday Clinton will lead Obama 1282 delegates to 1175 delegates.  An extrapolation of my formula suggests that Clinton will win, but if Obama wins a few major states, splits a few, he can certainly continue steamrolling after Super Tuesday into Louisiana, Nebraska, and other states that vote over the next few days.

Regardless, recent polling and the split of John Edwards voters suggests, certainly, that the race will not be over.

Running the projection again, assuming that Edwards delivers 9:1 to Obama (in theory with an endorsement), we see this:

Clinton: 1235 (actual Super Tuesday total: 1005)
Obama: 1222 (actual Super Tuesday total: 1070)

The key to equality is this: Obama and Clinton are neck and neck in California.  Clinton is leading in New York and Massachusetts.  Obama is trouncing in Illinois.  Remember - delegates are all proportional!  So if Obama wins the South and Midwest, he can easily make up the delegates missing from NY and Mass.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Genghis Khan said:
Guys please don't spam this forum.  Thank you.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the advice GK, but that is what the mods are for, I doubt they would have let it go on for longer than that... just a quick jab at any rate.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Clinton is speaking at my Alma Mater tomorrow... it's free, but unfortunately I'll be asleep during her talk so... I won't go :p
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Mitt Romney has won Maine.

Maine caucuses are held over three days, and so far, only about 70% of the vote has been held, but it appears that Romney will win Maine.  Romney will get most, if not all, of the Maine delegates due to Maine's matter of selection, and the fact that he has 52% of the vote compared to 21% for McCain and 19% for Ron Paul.

The media is scarcely covering Maine (just like they scarcely covered Wyoming) and so it doesn't seem to matter to anyone.  What's interesting is that a sparsely populated early state like Iowa gets so much attention, but many other early states (Wyoming, Nevada, and Maine) get very little attention.  Regardless, the big day is coming up.  Romney will trumpet Maine as a great win, but it is unlikely to affect his numbers.
New polls are in for the Democratic and Republican races.  While the Republican race doesn't seem to change much (McCain with appx. 45% of the vote, Romney with around 20% and Huckabee with 10-15%), Obama is gaining ground.  Most notably, recent polls show him leading in California, though still in a near-statistical tie (his lead is in the margin of error).  A bevy of polls also suggest Obama is nearly tied in New Jersey with Clinton.  New Jersey was polling very strongly towards Clinton until very recently, so these polls could be outliers - or they could suggest a trend towards Obama since Edwards dropped out.

Illinois is still Obama country, and New York is still Clinton country, as is Massachusetts, but Obama seems to have the South locked up, where he has a lot of support from African-American voters.  The winner of Super Duper Tuesday may very well hinge on the midwest and mountain states, where Obama and Clinton remain neck and neck.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

In watching the news today, it is projected that Obama will pull ahead on Super Tuesday, but as we know anything can happen.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

He seems to be leading in national polls.  As it becomes more and more obvious that McCain will be the GOP candidate, a lot of people are turning to Obama for a counter.  Obama is young and vibrant, certainly opposite to McCain's rather old and damaged visage.

However, delegates are what counts.  Only 2 days left...
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Onhell said:
In watching the news today, it is projected that Obama will pull ahead on Super Tuesday, but as we know anything can happen.
Click to expand...

ah yeah ?? let's hope it will happen so  :wub:

anyway, what I find very interesting in that story is that Obama or Clinton,
democrates will go either for the first woman president ever, or for the first black
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

I am currently watching an Obama ad featuring Caroline Kennedy.

Obama and Clinton are still neck and neck in California.  California has a lion's share of the delegates that are up for grabs tomorrow, and splitting it evenly would seriously limit Clinton's lead in NY and Massachusetts.  Obama looks like he's going to win huge in the South and in Illinois.

Interestingly enough, Mitt Romney is surging in California.  California doesn't have quite the importance in the GOP primary because of the way the GOP hands out delegates (states get bonus delegates for voting Republican), but it's still a big state with around 200 delegates.  Romney also has a rather large lead in Massachusetts and Utah.  In Utah, he is polling at around 85%, entirely because of his religion.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Romney is a HUGE surprise to me, BECAUSE of his religion. I'm glad to see that "the people" are looking more at his politics, he clearly is surging for a reason other than his beliefs... well except in Utah of course. I wish they could treat all other candidates on said basis (read a black man and white woman...).
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Well, the day is here, and nothing at all is certain!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top