USA Politics

Mosh said:
I will happily vote for Biden’s corpse over Trump. Sadly, I don’t live in a swing state and I am not the type of voter Biden needs to reach. That is what worries me about the way they’re handling the situation.
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This. The Democrats need to look at what will most effectively swing persuadable voters in swing states at this point, as well as what will maximize turnout there. I think most left-leaning people engaged with politics will go vote for the Democratic candidate, whoever that is. The question is how to best tick up those numbers in the states that matter based on campaign strategy, up to and including the replacement of Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.
 
His speech today was good, but again, it's later than it should have been. If he is the nominee, then he needs to hammer the next debate. The bar is so low now he should be able to get over it.

But I'm not convinced he should be the nominee.
 
There won’t be another debate imo.

Assuming it’s Biden, their best strategy is going full negative on Trump. January 6 stuff, pinning abortion on him, Trump lying at the debate (but cut out the Biden split screen). This is only going to work if people are energized to vote against Trump.
 
www.nbcnews.com

Chuck Todd: It's still about Trump

Analysis: Biden’s struggles during and since the June debate tie back to a longer-term, fundamental miscalculation about his political rise against Trump.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
An interesting review of Biden’s 2020 campaign and how it applies to the 2024 situation.
 
The calls from other elected officials don't appear to be subsiding after yesterday's meetings.

EDIT: Rob Reiner, who was at a Democratic fundraiser shortly after the debate, is now also calling for Biden to step aside for 2024.
 
A majority of voters (67%) said President Biden should step aside as the presumptive Democratic nominee, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll published Thursday.

I think it is possible he can change the narrative somewhat and improve those numbers, but the issue is that will take a long time to reverse the impression people have of him from that debate, the majority of his campaign will be "I'm not senile" ... versus normal campaigning. If he were running against a more traditional Republican (say, Romney, for example) ... this would be one of the biggest landslides in US history; the only thing keeping him in decent shape is Trump is so divisive.
 
Mosh said:
Well, barring (another) turn of events, it seems like the party is sticking with Biden. Progressive members are coming out vocally in support (AOC, Bernie) and, critically, the congressional black caucus doesn’t appear to be budging at all in their support of Biden. I would say as long as the CBC support holds, there is no way to get Biden out without causing a schism that can’t be fixed. We’ll see what happens. It’s incredible disappointing that congressional leadership doesn’t seem to even be seriously entertaining the conversation that needs to happen.
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I just want to say now that I posted this partially to put enough energy in the universe for me to have yet another wrong prediction in this thread. :D

www.nytimes.com

Some Biden Advisers Are Discussing How to Convince Him to Step Aside

Close allies of the president are developing a case for why he should end his re-election campaign, though it is not clear that the discussions have reached him.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
Good news for Biden supporters, he is still leading the 13 keys to White House. By a lot! This guy almost never failed, except 2000 when he predicted Al Gore would win.

By the way, Biden's appearance at NATO event was very solid. In my opinion, better a Biden than SOTU.

politicalpulse.net

Allan Lichtman Prediction for 2024 Presidential Election Fails

Allan Lichtman Prediction for 2024 Presidential Election: Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, predicts Kamala Harris will win the upcoming presidential election.
politicalpulse.net politicalpulse.net
 
Kinda funny how the focus is on this gaffe, which he immediately corrected, and not on the fact that he managed to give pretty convincing answers to some complex questions. There was a double question where he answered both, while keeping them separate and coming back for the different points. That's not a sign of mental decline. He's always done stupid things like that, like back in 2007 or whenever that was, where he told Chuck Graham, who is paraplegic, to stand up.

 
It doesn't matter though. What matters is that the public perception probably makes him unelectable. That's what matters, because on the campaign trail, his state would be what people would focus on.
 
Spaldy said:
He introduced Zelensky as "President Putin". The man has to step down.

www.theguardian.com

Biden introduces Zelenskiy as ‘President Putin’ at Nato summit

US president says ‘Ladies and gentleman, President Putin’, before realising mistake and correcting himself
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Ok yes, but apart from that he was quite solid. He may win after all.

I really trust the 13 keys to Whitehouse and this time Biden’s dominance is something like 9 -4 or something, unusually big gap.
 
I am not sure if the press conference did more than squash rumors that Biden has a neurodegenerative disease. Although the people spreading those rumors are either doing so with malice or don’t know what they’re talking about, so it might not matter. It’s a step in the right direction for Biden, but he needs to be out there more performing in this way unscripted. On the other hand, it also feels like the ship has sailed and polls continue to be abysmal. If donors continue to pull money from Biden and congress people keep campaigning as if Biden has already lost, it might be a lost cause.
 
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