USA Politics

Mosh said:
NYT poll also shows Trump ahead: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html

Looks like Biden is doing a primetime interview on Friday. We'll see what happens but so far the damage control around this has not been great. Also the sudden push to give Kamala more of a presence is a bit of a signal that Biden is preparing to leave the race:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1808507302426886348
Click to expand...
Not necessarily. Giving her more media time could be them just strengthening the ticket, having her partially make up for his weakness.
 
Yax said:
Not necessarily. Giving her more media time could be them just strengthening the ticket, having her partially make up for his weakness.
Click to expand...
Maybe. But I would say a job posting focused on expanding the VP's online presence at a time when Democrats are publicly calling for Biden to leave the race and establishment officeholders are refusing to campaign with him is bad timing to say the least.

IMO you're going to see more Kamala in the next few days partially as a way to test her viability. There are undoubtedly going to private and public polling asking voters who they prefer in a two way race between Harris and Trump. I would even say that it's possible Biden only leaves the race if there's a clear signal that Harris would be more likely to beat Trump.

It could be a surrogate strategy, which many have been calling for even before the debate, but we are still not really seeing a lot of surrogates advocating on TV/etc for Biden. If it's just Kamala then I think it's more than that.
 
Mosh said:
The top priority needs to be winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If the candidate can win these three states, they can lose all other swing states and still get 270 votes. Of these three, Michigan seems most liable to flip to Trump. With that in mind, I would go for Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer as she has built a really strong coalition there and would be formidable in the other two states as well. I would also settle for any other governor such as Pritzker (IL), Polis (CO), or Shapiro (PA).
Click to expand...
I'd agree, but the problem is getting her national recognition in four months might be tricky - even though we are in the digital age. Newsom is out in the current circumstances because California is such a boogeyman in the midwest/rust belt region, although I'm interested in him going for the 2028 primaries.

I suppose on the other hand though, having someone relatively unknown in Whitmer will help with voters in the "both of these candidates suck" column that plagues both Trump and Biden. The anti-Trump coalition of voters is there regardless.

Biden held a fundraiser last night and it doesn't sound like he did himself any favors on the stamina for the job argument. He claimed the foreign travel he'd been on contributed to him being tired... he returned from Normandy seven full days prior to the debate. He has the ABC interview being filmed on Friday for a Sunday release, but, if you ask me, his schedule needs to be more packed with live events. Show you have the stamina because that's what's plaguing the perception of you right now.
 
Flaming Blimp Crash said:
I suppose on the other hand though, having someone relatively unknown in Whitmer will help with voters in the "both of these candidates suck" column that plagues both Trump and Biden. The anti-Trump coalition of voters is there regardless.
Click to expand...
This is the key imo. If it becomes a lesser of two evils thing, Trump wins. Bringing in a new candidate could mitigate or erase the "both candidates suck" vote, which is critical. I definitely think low name ID is actually helpful here. Kamala may improve Biden's numbers but is also almost certainly going to bring along some of his baggage. A lesser known candidate may be just enough to get people excited who have been complaining for months about the lack of a decent choice from either party. Right now it's looking like a 2016 type of environment, which is certainly still winnable for Biden, but a new candidate puts things more in 2020 territory which is infinitely more favorable IMO.
 
Today was probably the most eventful news day since the debate and I have to say I’m becoming increasingly convinced Biden actually will drop out of the race. The campaign is publicly acknowledging that it was a disaster and anonymous reporting suggests Biden is reconsidering and wants the week to prove he is up for the job.

The problem is that with every day he doesn’t make televised public appearances, he is demonstrating that he is not up for the job. A pre taped interview that won’t appear until Sunday is not enough. The fact that they aren’t doing this makes me think they’re either not taking the situation seriously or they see the writing on the wall. I also think they actually need the week to put a bow on everything so that they can have as seamless a transition possible to whoever the new candidate is.

Biden told his campaign that he is “absolutely not” dropping out, but it’s exactly the type of thing you say until you publicly decide to drop out. It’s classic famous last words.
 
If Harris is the candidate, it will truly be interesting. She has very low numbers among people who know her, generally - but a lot of Dems will hold their nose. Can she bring the Biden coalition together?

If it's not Harris, then the new ticket will need a woman and/or a Black person to help bind the various parts of the Democratic coalition together. Whitmer becomes likely at some level. I concur that Newsom has a name recognition advantage, but his favourability in California is down currently while Whitmer's is at its peak. Some combination of Whitmer+ another candidate may move the needle.

Kamala Harris will not be VP for two presidents. I've said Whitmer+Buttigieg before, and I think that remains fairly likely as a replacement ticket. If not Buttigieg, I'm not sure. The big disadvantage for Whitmer is that she's never run a national race and isn't vetted at that level. Same with Newsom, etc. I don't know.

Certainly, I understand why the Dems rallied around Biden, but there's two options here. 1) the guy had a bad day and everyone is freaking out over it or 2) they worked to hide the extent of his frailties. Because his public appearances have mostly been good, despite what some people keep saying in this thread. Certainly not magnificent, but good enough to suggest he was a capable candidate.
 
If it were a "bad night" or "cold" or "over-prepared" (yes AXIOS even reported that) there wouldn't be this discussion right now. Everyone knows it wasn't a bad night and that's why everyone's freaking out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Yax
I would be thrilled if Whitmer runs and beat Trump out of nowhere. I hope she does.

____no5 said:
[...]
But seeing how Obama rushed to support Biden in X, all bets are off and probably Biden will run in the end. Which is a shame, because he would be replaced very soon in the presidency by Harris.
Click to expand...

A Tucker Carlson article suggesting that Obama is playing a double game with Joe. Maybe, maybe not, but I find it entirely plausible. We'll know in a month.
Regarding Dr. Jill's involvement, no one can deny that she is fully in for her husband running again. Which is strange. She is a fine woman, one would think that she should prioritize her husband's health upon power & wealth.
It's not that they didn't accumulate enough 50 years into the politics to live happily for 2 generations already.

IMG_3389.jpg
 
____no5 said:
A Tucker Carlson article suggesting that Obama is playing a double game with Joe. Maybe, maybe not, but I find it entirely plausible. We'll know in a month.
Regarding Dr. Jill's involvement, no one can deny that she is fully in for her husband running again. Which is strange. She is a fine woman, one would think that she should prioritize her husband's health upon power & wealth.
It's not that they didn't accumulate enough 50 years into the politics to live happily for 2 generations already.
Click to expand...
I believe Biden and his family are doing what they think is right. I also believe they are wrong, but there's nothing to suggest it's nefarious.
 
____no5 said:
If it were a "bad night" or "cold" or "over-prepared" (yes AXIOS even reported that) there wouldn't be this discussion right now. Everyone knows it wasn't a bad night and that's why everyone's freaking out.
Click to expand...
Everyone knows that some people in their 80s begin to have senior moments and slow down. Biden's major public appearances had been mostly strong until the debate.
 
I don't believe there's anyone out there thinking "I was going to vote for Joe, but he didn't perform too well in that debate, so I'm going to vote for Trump". Trump tried to overthrow democracy, it's not for like for like. If anyone is already considering voting for Trump, then they are already a lost cause, you aren't going to win them back with a different candidate.

And if it's a case of changing candidates to get your own voters to show up and vote on the day, if Trump potentially winning isn't motivating them to vote, then I can't see how a different candidate will.
 
srfc said:
If anyone is already considering voting for Trump, then they are already a lost cause, you aren't going to win them back with a different candidate.
Click to expand...
The only swing voters left at this point are generally uninformed people who are only starting to pay attention, or people who are so concerned about Biden’s mental state that they might rather have a mentally present wacko in office than a zombie. People in either of those groups might be swayed by a different Democratic candidate.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Yax
No one is switching sides this election, it's all about getting your party's voters to the ballot box.

If anyone was switching sides it was during the primaries. NeverTrump Republicans went to the Haley camp and I don't think they'll necessarily fall in line. They're plenty baffled by Haley's sudden 180 and endorsement of Trump.
 
srfc said:
I don't believe there's anyone out there thinking "I was going to vote for Joe, but he didn't perform too well in that debate, so I'm going to vote for Trump". Trump tried to overthrow democracy, it's not for like for like. If anyone is already considering voting for Trump, then they are already a lost cause, you aren't going to win them back with a different candidate.

And if it's a case of changing candidates to get your own voters to show up and vote on the day, if Trump potentially winning isn't motivating them to vote, then I can't see how a different candidate will.
Click to expand...
The worry is more about people staying home or going third party. Nobody is switching sides. If you look at the polls Trump is retaining all of his support from 2020, but enough of Biden’s 2020 voters are either undecided or flirting with third party candidates, which is enough for Trump to win the electoral college with minority support.
 
LooseCannon said:
Everyone knows that some people in their 80s begin to have senior moments and slow down. Biden's major public appearances had been mostly strong until the debate.
Click to expand...

If you say so, but there were too many minor public appearances that he showed signs that he’s loosing it, like pleading alliance to Indian flag, I want to go to bed in Vietnam, reading pause on the teleprompter etc., easily 20 of that caliper the last year or two.

To the point that the spokeswoman of the White House talked about AI deep fakes.
 
____no5 said:
like pleading alliance to Indian flag
Click to expand...
He heard a national anthem and covered his heart instinctively, a thing Americans do for some dumb reason for their own anthem. He then lowered his hand once he heard what song it was. He did not pledge allegiance to the wrong flag. https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/biden-modi-white-house-national-anthem-b2362632.html

The bed comment was a joke at the end of a press conference when someone asked him what he was doing next. It didn't land and people twisted it into his age.

Someone badly phrased a teleprompter and he kept reading. That literally happens to anyone who uses teleprompters, like every public figure.

Anyone who has known Biden knows he always makes little gaffes likes this, and this stuff isn't that uncommon. Obama said he visited all 56 states once, etc. My concern is whether or not he has the capacity to make smart decisions for the nation and respond in a case of emergency.

The only reason this stuff matters to people is because he's old and it reinforces their image of whether or not the man is too old to be president or if he has lost it. And while I don't think he *has* lost it, he's definitely slower than he was.
 
LooseCannon said:
He heard a national anthem and covered his heart instinctively, a thing Americans do for some dumb reason for their own anthem.
Click to expand...

They do it everyday in school isn’t it? Maybe that’s the answer. What I cannot stand is when US presidents salute militarily without hearing a hat. The only time you salute militarily is when you wearing a hat and you point the flag in the middle of the flag this is what the salute is about.

He had his hand in his heart for quite some time though. And Vietnam didn’t seem like joking. Anyway there are too many of those there was a video Harris and another official could’t stop laughing at Joe in an official moment. I felt so sorry for all of them.

The army people were so serious as they should, the politicians like kids.

———
I watched some videos of Whitmer. I like her a lot. She has a great smile and charm and knows how to sell her points.
She is on the progressive side for all policy matters that I’ve read, but everything was focused on internal policies.

Anyway, she’s fine. Would be a refreshment, Newsom next to her seems boring.
 
Guess it was leaked from his meeting with Democratic governors yesterday that he's going to try avoid scheduling events after 8pm.

Yeah, it's time. Incumbency is an important thing to have going into an election, but this is ridiculous. I'll vote for him if he's the nominee, but he has to get pulled.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top