USA Politics

[Vaenyr]

Well, if Biden unexpectedly dies before the convention, then it's anyone's game. But short of that, yeah, it looks like the DNC is ensuring that Biden gets to roll to the nomination as undemocratically as possible.

True. My post was under the assumption that no accidents or twists of fate are going to happen before the election.

 

[Mosh]

I can't tell if you're joking or not... But seriously, are you joking?

I just looked over the electoral map. He can’t really do it in just 2 states, but any three of the following will win Trump the election:

Michigan
Wisconsin
Arizona
Nevada
Georgia
Pennsylvania

These states in the past two elections have been decided in as little as less than a percentage point (I.e. a few thousand votes). Trump won all of them except NV in 2016. They also tend to swing the same way, I.e. whoever wins WI will probably also win PA and MI.

That’s the math, I’ll be back with some thoughts on how I actually think it’s going to go.

 

[Mosh]

So I went back in this thread last night after NH was called for Trump because I was trying to reference some events from the 2020 campaign. If anyone has a few spare minutes, I encourage y'all to check out some of the takes in this thread because pretty much everybody commenting here who was around four years ago has some wild takes that turned out to be completely inaccurate. Including this chestnut:

Barring a major upset on Super Tuesday, Bernie is definitely going to be the nominee. The question now is more whether he does so with a majority or a plurality of delegates.

The biggest takeaway for me though was how fast it seemed like people around here came to the consensus that Trump would beat Biden handily. Well, here we are.

Granted COVID really upended the race and Biden clinched the nomination before we knew how serious of a situation it was going to be in the USA. But even when COVID started to become more of a factor, it felt like the idea that Biden's promise of stability in his 2020 campaign would be an advantage in the general was a fringe opinion. Additionally, a lot of the arguments against Biden are the same ones that are being used right now: "he's too old/white," "nobody is excited to vote for him," etc etc.

So COVID aside, I think Biden's biggest challenge in 2020 and his biggest challenge in 2024 is going to be the perception that Trump is better on the economy. The economy got fucked during COVID and eroded that advantage. Assuming that won't be a thing this year (knock on wood), the economy is going to be a big factor and I think this has been Biden's biggest weakness the last four years. It's a messaging problem - the economic numbers are getting better, but Obama had this same problem in 2012 and was able to rewrite the narrative. I'm not sure if Biden has the same discipline.

So with all of those caveats in mind, I feel I've been saying this on the forum for years now: I think Trump is an extremely overrated general election candidate. Every election since 2016 has been a disaster for the GOP and Trump only won the presidency the first time by a slim margin against a very unlikeable opponent. I think he is almost certainly going to be a convicted felon by the time the election rolls around and, just like Hilary in 2016, people don't like to vote for presidents they think are going to end up in jail.

He has a big electoral college advantage, but I think even then if you look at state trends (especially as they relate to Trump) he has much more of an uphill climb than Biden does. Going back to this list (all states Trump lost in 2020, other than NV all states he won in 2016):

Michigan - Blue wave in 2022, popular Dem governor and two Dem senators. The Democratic version of Florida, probably won't be in play.

Wisconsin - Still willing to vote for Republicans (Republican Senator Ron Johnson won reelection in an otherwise bad year for Repubs in 2022). However, a liberal justice was elected there in a special election largely due to abortion rights as well as election integrity/freedom issues, two big Trump liabilities.

Arizona - Trumpy candidate Kari Lake lost the governor election in 2022. Both Senate seats went blue since Trump got in, probably a sign of a larger shift to the left that exists beyond Trump (see also Colorado).

Nevada - Trump has never won this state, it largely went blue in 2022.

Georgia - Clearly does not like Trump. Anti-Trump Brian Kemp won his reelection in 2022 no problem, extremely Trump-aligned Herschel Walker lost the Senate race. Two democratic Senators, Trump was first Republican since the 90s to lose this state in a presidential election. High profile trial in Georgia is also probably not going to be great publicity for Trump.

Pennsylvania - Trump-aligned Doctor Oz lost the Senate race, Josh Shapiro won a massive victory in the governor's race against another Trumpy candidate.

Even if you give Georgia and WI to Trump, which I think are the two most likely states to swing in his direction, it's still not enough. I just don't see it happening. Additionally, I don't think enough attention is being paid to the fact that Trump's numbers in Iowa and NH aren't great when you consider he is being treated like an incumbent. I think most of these voters ultimately come home to Trump, but I will also not be surprised if many of Hayley's voters are 2020 Biden republicans who are going to vote for him again in 2024.

I said before that Trump is a few thousand votes away from the white house again which is entirely true, he is dangerously close to becoming president again and I don't want to give the impression that I think his victory is impossible, but I do think his chances were overblown in 2020 and are overblown now.

Edit: While I was typing news came out that Biden is being endorsed by the Auto union. The fact that these endorsements are coming in and coming in early is a huge deal, especially for the rust belt. It's a pretty strong indication imo that the Biden coalition from 2020 is going to come out again to whoop Trump. Now that Trump is clearly the nominee, keep an eye on polls as well as Biden's approval numbers, I think you are going to see a pretty huge swing back to the Biden side.

 

[Vaenyr]

Great post Mosh, thanks for the detailed write up.

I agree with your conclusion. There are plenty of people who would like to vote blue but for someone else than Biden. There are plenty of legitimate criticisms to be had (like his handling of the Palestine-Israel conflict for example). I think the closer we'll get to the election, the stronger the support for Biden will become. Granted, there will be a not insignificant number who'll vote against Trump, instead of for Biden, but if that's what it takes to defeat Trump (and by extension avoid Project 2025) then so be it.

 

[Yax]

Never mind the clickbait headline all political commentary channels have to run with, but Farron is looking at some polling here. I follow his own channel, but he's a frequent RoF guest, like on here.

What he's not adressing though is the fact that getting people that support Biden, or opposes Trump or bothm to actually go out in masses and vote instead of stayin home is just as an important factor as independent voter support.

 

[bearfan]

I generally agree with what @Mosh said. But a few things to add

1. Michigan, there has been more of a disconnect on UAW and members voting over time. They always endorse Democrats, but that seems to have a bigger impact on state races than national. Also there is a significant Muslim/pro-Palestinian voting block there that is not happy with Biden at the moment, they are certainly not going to go Trump's way, but they might just sit out the election which could put Michigan in play
2. Nevada and the other states have been really close the last several elections .. and I think this applies to a lot of states in the list, they have all been so close, it really comes down to turnout. There is a strong anti-Trump vote, that I do not think is really so much pro-Biden (he certainly has his supporters, but it is not a passionate base like Obama, Reagan, etc) and Trump supporters are very passionate, but they are not large enough in numbers.
3. Third Party votes will matter, they will not be massive (most likely), but in narrow states, .5% could end up being a big deal
4. Haley has a really small window in a now 2-person race to take advantage of it. I think Trump probably still wins the nomination, but if she has a shot, now is the time to do something. She has to win some states and in the ones she loses, not lose badly to keep the delegate count semi-close (more like 9 versus 12 she got in NH versus the 8 versus 20 (maybe more if Desantis' 9 go to Trump) in Iowa).
5. Things will happen between now and November (really late October with early voting) that could make a difference and shape the race slightly to massively different than it is now (Trump legal issues, economic problems, terrorist attacks, broadening of wars, etc) . Obviously no way to predict these.


Honestly, I wish we had better choices .. but I think at this point it is most likely Trump v Biden v 3rd Party ... and it is a tossup

 

[Mosh]

I think most of what you lay out is Trump's best case scenario, which imo speaks to how dire of a situation it is for him. #5 is the best shot I would say, specifically an economic downturn would be lethal for Biden's campaign. Otherwise, with all of the legal issues Trump has I would say he is more liable for a bad October surprise.

I'll be curious to see what happens with 3rd party candidates. RFK was getting a lot of attention from the likes of Fox News until it became clear in polling that he was actually taking votes from Trump, the problem is the possible candidates have been so fringe (RFK, Cornell West) that it's hard to see them getting anywhere. Gary Johnson at least seemed like a fairly normal and likable guy.

RE: Michigan, not to compare the state to Florida too much, but I think relying on Muslim voters to stay home out of spite for Biden is akin to assuming that the hispanic population of Florida wouldn't come out for Trump. I think people are mad when they talk to pollsters but will fall in line when the binary choice is in full focus.

 

[bearfan]

I think most of what you lay out is Trump's best case scenario, which imo speaks to how dire of a situation it is for him. #5 is the best shot I would say, specifically an economic downturn would be lethal for Biden's campaign. Otherwise, with all of the legal issues Trump has I would say he is more liable for a bad October surprise.

I'll be curious to see what happens with 3rd party candidates. RFK was getting a lot of attention from the likes of Fox News until it became clear in polling that he was actually taking votes from Trump, the problem is the possible candidates have been so fringe (RFK, Cornell West) that it's hard to see them getting anywhere. Gary Johnson at least seemed like a fairly normal and likable guy.

RE: Michigan, not to compare the state to Florida too much, but I think relying on Muslim voters to stay home out of spite for Biden is akin to assuming that the hispanic population of Florida wouldn't come out for Trump. I think people are mad when they talk to pollsters but will fall in line when the binary choice is in full focus.

All good points. I guess though my main point is there are plausible ways both can win

With 3rd party, you certainly have Libertarians (my most likely vote) and the Green party. But anyone of note running under "no labels" could be a spoiler. In any case it is incredibly likely there will be two main candidates running that are way underwater in approval ratings..which makes predicting turnout very difficult


Which is why I am saying it is essentially a toss-up. The RCP average at the moment is Trump +3. But that is really meaningless this far out.


My hope is Haley finds some way to rally, but the odds of that are pretty slim

 

[Mosh]

Right I forgot about no labels. Yes, if they field a solid candidate (I think Manchin is out?) that's going to be bad probably more for Biden.

I really see no path forward for Hayley although I would love to be proven wrong.

 

[bearfan]

Right I forgot about no labels. Yes, if they field a solid candidate (I think Manchin is out?) that's going to be bad probably more for Biden.

I really see no path forward for Hayley although I would love to be proven wrong.

Agree on Haley. The odds are slim as the odds always were once DeSantis flamed put. The main thing she has going for her is it is a 2 person race now and her campaign needs to find a way to capitalize on that. Short of Trump keeling over, she needs to win a state and do it soon. If she gets trounced in her some state (the next primary) it is over

 

[Mosh]

The problem is that she keeps coming up short in what she needs to do to make this work. She's actually getting decent results but the media narrative isn't favoring her. Her Iowa and NH performances were actually pretty impressive but the hype turned into "2nd in Iowa, 1st in New Hampshire" and she did neither of those.

It'll be super ironic if she wins SC and that propels her to the nomination, considering that is exactly what happened with her general election opponent.

 

[bearfan]

The problem is that she keeps coming up short in what she needs to do to make this work. She's actually getting decent results but the media narrative isn't favoring her. Her Iowa and NH performances were actually pretty impressive but the hype turned into "2nd in Iowa, 1st in New Hampshire" and she did neither of those.

It'll be super ironic if she wins SC and that propels her to the nomination, considering that is exactly what happened with her general election opponent.

For sure the odds are slim. Like I said if she has any chance she needs to pull out all the stops and somehow force Trump into a debate (which will only happen if she can get a win soon). The rest of the field dropping out at least gives her a theoretical chance. But it is now or never

 

[____no5]

I'm surprised that nobody brought up the Texas borders situation yet. I'm not very clear on that matter so I sneaked here hoping there will be some local insight.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/27/us/texas-eagle-pass-us-mexico-border/index.html

U.S. Detention of Child Migrants

Tens of thousands of unaccompanied children have been arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border each year, sparking debate over how to respond. How is the Joe Biden administration handling it?

www.cfr.org

 

[Yax]

Trump is explicitly attempting, and seemingly has managed to, tank the bipartisan border/ukraine/israel bill that was going to fund extensive border protection spending. He does not benefit from any narrative of the situation being "resolved".

This is also interesting:

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/27/politics/texas-border-supreme-court-what-matters/index.html

 

[____no5]

Actually after Supreme Court's decision Biden is between the hammer and the anvil; both if he acts or if he won't, will look bad.

On a side note I am not clear what was the purpose of bundling the funding for 3 completely different cases. Why not each case to be treated /approved separately?

 

[Yax]

Actually after Supreme Court's decision Biden is between the hammer and the anvil; both if he acts or if he won't, will look bad.

On a side note I am not clear what was the purpose of bundling the funding for 3 completely different cases. Why not each case to be treated /approved separately?

That's how American politics work, although more so since the political landscape turned into a battlefield of sorts. That's how you generally can carve out a compromise and everybody can tout whatever accomplishment that comes out of it, and sell the "bitter pills" to the party flanks, rather than separating them; that tend to result in gridlocks and nothing comes out of it. Because these are not separate from each other; the republicans, or The Trump Party (as he's the one that has spearheaded this. Everybody else follow) are quite literally waging a culture war combined with intentional polarization, hell bent to take contrary positions in almost every singular issue; no matter what kind of positions they have taken before.

 

[Jer]

Trump Can’t Be Dictator on ‘Day One’ — Or in a Second Term. Here’s Why.

Even with a head start in a first term, it would take Trump a long time to bend our democracy to his will.

www.politico.com

An interesting and measured take on how far Trump could realistically push autocracy if re-elected, using Türkiye as a guidepost.

 

[chaosapiant]

I've never been one to follow politics in general. I only started following things after Trump was elected and pretty much ever since. And there's a lot I don't understand, I don't trust any one news source, I don't trust anything the government tells me, and least of all do I trust Trump himself. What disgusts me is just how much of the United States stands up for Trump. If anyone else had done half the shit Trump has pulled, they'd never be a nominee, let alone ever considered by voters. But here's a man who has committed treason of the highest form in the January 6th insurrection, and voters still will vote for him. Including folks in my own family. It's disheartening, and sad. Not even sure what I was intending this post to be, so just consider it to be myself venting.

 

[____no5]

Nice article but I don't get how one can call Türkiye or Hungary a dictatorship, illiberal or anything like that. People vote for Erdogan & Orban massively and we should respect what people vote, like it or not.
Same with Trump. If we don't hear what half of US shouts and so loudly too we are in for a huge blind spot, same as Hilary had when she called half of US deplorables. And we all know what happened.
That's why I am totally against removing people's choice with means like lawfare, or legal means if the word offends you or anything like that.

We need to look ourselves in the mirror and ask: Do we really believe in democracy? If yes we must be ready to accept uncomfortable outcomes, such as Erdogan, Orban and yes, Trump.

 

[Jer]

Nice article but I don't get how one can call Türkiye or Hungary a dictatorship, illiberal or anything like that. People vote for Erdogan & Orban massively and we should respect what people vote, like it or not.

Would you say the same thinking applies to Russian elections, or is there a dividing line in there somewhere?

That's why I am totally against removing people's choice with means like lawfare, or legal means if the word offends you or anything like that.

We need to look ourselves in the mirror and ask: Do we really believe in democracy?

…except it’s right there in the Constitution. So if you uphold the constitution of a constitutional democracy you’re supposedly not really democratic…?