USA Politics
- Thread starter Genghis Khan
- Start date
You have to, once this primary gets wrapped up after NH (barring an upset Haley win), I expect a mass endorsement for Trump and probably a big Mar a Lago event with establishment republicans.
It seems DeSantis was encouraged to drop out now to salvage some credibility, but I’m not really sure what that gets him besides a future senate run. Trump is never going to endorse him for a presidential run, even if he wins this year he’ll pick somebody else to be his successor in 2028. The way I see it, the party either becomes a Trump monarchy or they move away from Trumpism in which case DeSantis wouldn’t really be a viable candidate (the sixth week abortion ban will also forever be a national albatross).
But man, what a historically disastrous campaign. He got compared to Scott Walker a lot but I think he’s closer to a Jeb Bush or Kamala Harris type candidate. Just a total train wreck.
Yeah, I've seen some analysis that suggests he might go down in history as the worst run GOP primary campaign of all time, which is wild.
He's an uncharismatic lump, which is fine for Florida but won't fly at the national stage.
Onhell
Infinite Dreamer
100%. Not that long ago Howard Dean murdered his own campaign with a simple "Yeehaw." Amazing what it takes now-a-days to be worse than THAT.
Trump wins NH, that's it for the GOP primary. For those who don't pay close attention, this means Trump is about a year and a few thousand votes in 2 or 3 states from becoming the president again.
IMO Hayley should stay in until the convention. If Trump dies or ends up as a convicted felon maybe she can get the nomination as a second choice. She'll probably pick up some delegates over the course of the race.
IMO Hayley should stay in until the convention. If Trump dies or ends up as a convicted felon maybe she can get the nomination as a second choice. She'll probably pick up some delegates over the course of the race.
Vaenyr
Ancient Mariner
I can't tell if you're joking or not... But seriously, are you joking?
Yax
Ancient Mariner
No, he's not and he's right. That's how thin the margins are in this race and how the electoral system is fundamentally undemocratic, as there are zero electoral votes awarded to whoever wins the most overall votes. It's all about how many, and which, states you win.
Jer
'Til Tomorrow
Well, unless Trump gets disqualified in enough states or convicted before the general election, we’re probably fucked now. Thanks, DNC.
Yax
Ancient Mariner
Still a 50-50, and once Biden and co. actually campaigns, I expect them to make gains. It's remarkable how terrible at public communications the Dems are. Mindblowing, really. They could form a pretty solid case on the back of Biden's accomplishments, but they are close to inept at actually doing so.
srfc
Ancient Mariner
Yax
Ancient Mariner
If Trump gets elected, he'll never leave. Don't take my word for it, ask Liz Cheney. When the government apparatus is stacked with loyalists, who is going to stop him? Laws, like the amendment that grants only two terms, only mean something if they are upheld.
Jer
'Til Tomorrow
He's old and overweight, so age will take care of the Trump problem before too long. And honestly, aside from the heartburn over his chances of winning, I'd rather have Trump keep running and losing vs. some of the other options.
The problem this time around is the astonishing weakness of Biden as a candidate, which puts Trump at risk of squeaking out a win again. I think Nikki Haley was correct in her NH speech that whichever party dumps their senior citizen boat anchor first will win the 2024 election -- but if we get Biden vs. Trump redux, it's going to come down to what the economy feels like in November, what's going on with the southern border, and whether Trump gets convicted of anything before the election. The economy is anyone's guess -- I don't see the price gouging on food magically disappearing by then, which is one of the major issues for lower-income folks. The Republicans seem intent on doing nothing about the border until the election so they can run on it as an issue. And so far Trump has been successful at procedural moves that could delay his federal trials, so the chances of a pre-election conviction continue to dwindle.
Maybe if Trump wins but the Republicans lose the House we could get a third impeachment when Trump decides to blanket pardon himself or direct the DOJ to drop his prosecution, and maybe just enough Republican senators could decide enough is enough, and booting Trump to give his VP a head start as an incumbent for 2028 might look appealing to them -- but I doubt it.
I agree that he'd attempt this, but at the end of the day I would still expect the Secret Service and/or the military to force him out the door on Jan 20, 2029. That said, by that point he may have already exited NATO, told Europe to go fuck itself, bombed Mexico, and started building the northern border wall, but who can say.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
I hoped Hayley could have pulled off an upset, she got what she wanted in a 2-person race which is the only shot of Trump not wining the nomination -- still really low odds, but better than a crowded field ... in any case we will most likely end up with another election with 2 candidates that poll with very high negatives .. which really sucks, yet again.
Vaenyr
Ancient Mariner
I severely disagree with the notion that a second Trump presidency would be in any way beneficial. Especially with the added context of Project 2025.
That said I'm hopeful that Biden is going to win. Don't underestimate how much people hate Trump. But I guess we'll see.
That said I'm hopeful that Biden is going to win. Don't underestimate how much people hate Trump. But I guess we'll see.
None. Newsom is probably going to be the candidate in 2028, but 2024 it's Biden, for better or worse.
Jer
'Til Tomorrow
Well, if Biden unexpectedly dies before the convention, then it's anyone's game. But short of that, yeah, it looks like the DNC is ensuring that Biden gets to roll to the nomination as undemocratically as possible.