So Trump has been acquitted from his second impeachment, except this time there was much more bipartisan support for conviction (the most bipartisan support since Andrew Johnson’s fell short by one vote).
Frankly, I was expecting 3 Republicans at most to cross over. 7 senators is really incredible. On the other hand, this was such an open and shut case that the fact that 100 senators didn’t vote for conviction is a really bad sign for the country.
The senators themselves are fairly interesting. We have the expected suspects, Romney, Collins, and Murkowski. Ben Sasse has been a pretty vocal Trump critic and Cassidy voted yes on the first impeachment vote on Monday so he isn’t much of a surprise either. Both are from safe seats and can probably easily fend off a primary challenge.
Pat Toomey and Richard Burr are from swing states and their seats are up in 2022. Toomey is from PA, which Biden won, and Burr is from NC, which Trump won. Burr has said he won’t run again, but he hasn’t formally retired yet. This seems like an indication to me that he may run again and thinks that this is the politically favorable move. In general though, NC is red enough still that Burr’s best bet is probably to be a republican. I doubt his seat will be as competitive as Thillis’ was this last year. Toomey’s vote probably indicates that he can be a gettable swing vote going forward, since he is probably going to be the most vulnerable republican senator.
With all of that being said, I don’t expect us to get another high profile bipartisan vote like this in the next two years, but it could be a decent bellweather for who is and isn’t a nonstarter for bringing Republicans over. In other words, if a republican senator didn’t vote to convict Trump, they’re not going to vote for COVID relief or anything else Dems put up.
The COVID bill will be the next thing to watch for. I doubt it comes down to party lines, you will probably get up to 3 or 4 republicans on board. Like I said before, Pat Toomey will be the one to watch for the next couple years.
Democrats also easily have the votes to bar Trump from running again, and they should do that.