USA Politics

There you go. That second answer especially is moderate speak for “I’m not going to vote for an obvious ploy to add senate seats.”
 
Mosh said:
There you go. That second answer especially is moderate speak for “I’m not going to vote for an obvious ploy to add senate seats.”
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Especially when it will diminish his personal power. If DC & PR go through and they add 4 new Democratic Senators, all of a sudden Joe Manchin has no power.
 
50% in and this is looking very very good for Democrats. It's almost bizarre to see an election where the Dems are ahead from the outset. I feel comfortable predicting that at least Warnock is going to win his race, but it's looking good for Ossoff too. This might be a shorter night than expected.
 
Mosh said:
50% in and this is looking very very good for Democrats. It's almost bizarre to see an election where the Dems are ahead from the outset. I feel comfortable predicting that at least Warnock is going to win his race, but it's looking good for Ossoff too. This might be a shorter night than expected.
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Yeah, it's looking very good for the Democrats. And if it holds, we're talking about a pretty significant swing to the Dems from the November election night, as well, which plays well into my personal theory of "some Donald Trump fans simply cannot be polled, but will only show up if Donald Trump is on the ticket".
 
Alright. none of the networks are calling the race and I don't expect them to tonight, but I feel comfortable enough to say that Warnock and Ossoff have this in the bag. The only remaining votes are from heavily blue areas in Atlanta, there's still outstanding mail in votes, and Democrats have reliably outperformed Biden in every area where it mattered and Republicans have had disappointing turnout and underperformed in every area where it mattered. The only path to victory is if there are less votes to count than what the election offices have already reported.
 
Some preemptive takeaways, acknowledging that the race hasn’t been called yet. But the math for Republicans to win doesn’t seem to be there (this feels like PA all over again).

  • I agree with LC’s take that Trump voters are difficult for pollsters to reach, and also tend to be low propensity voters who only show up for Trump. I hope that this result + the 2018 results make it more apparent that under normal circumstances, polling is usually pretty accurate.
  • Similarly, Republicans who act like Trump but aren’t Trump struggle to win statewide elections. I hope the presidential hopefuls in the Senate are taking notes here.
  • Stacy Abrams is the most important asset to the Democratic Party since Obama. I fully expect her to run for governor again and win. I also expect her organizational strategies to be adapted by other Southern states, think the Democratic version of a Southern Strategy. Get more black people to show up, get more college educated whites in the D columns, and work to promote the south as a great place to live with a lower COL than the coastal states and you will quickly see NC, SC, Texas, and even states like LA become competitive/blue leaning.
  • Turns out screaming about voter fraud for months and telling your voters that an upcoming election will be rigged is a bad strategy for winning elections. I hope that this puts the election fraud stuff to bed. There has been speculation that the GOP has been going along with Trump this whole time because they need him to win in Georgia. It’s pretty obvious that Trump has been partially responsible for the loss in Georgia and hopefully the GOP starts to see him as politically toxic. We’ll see though, that fact should’ve been obvious two years ago. The first bellwether will be how many Republicans refuse to certify Biden’s victory tomorrow.
  • I’m curious how much the rejection of $2000 checks had an effect on this election. This was close enough that passing a popular piece of legislation (that Trump supported) may have been enough to make the difference in Republicans’ favor.
 
Perdue team is taking notes from Trump and is screaming about making sure all legal votes are counted and will use every legal option available.
 
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Dr. Eddies Wingman said:
I just caught myself wondering, just how decisive are the runoffs in Georgia? I get the numbers. If both Democrats win, the Senate is split 50-50 and the vice president has the decisive vote. But ... do the Senators always follow the party line? I would think the answer is no.

Biden would certainly need a clearer majority in the Senate to pass more progressive policies, as some Democrat senators could go against those. And on the other hand, he would still get something through a Senate with a slender R majority, but obviously that would be "compromise" politics that would not please the more progressive elements in the Democratic party.

But say, something like Green New Deal - would that be guaranteed to pass a 50-50 senate, giving Harris the final say? I'm not sure.
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At least it would not be the 6 years of obstruction Obama had to endure. *crosses fingers*
 
I'm sure the Republicans will find ways to disappoint you and me again. Especially after the next election if (probably) the Dems lose the Senate or the house.
 
January 6th will be an important day. The result of the senate runoffs will be finalized (of course if it is close enough the losing side will demand a recount) and the Republicans in Congress will have to show whether they have spines or not. (Hint: protesting the electoral vote from all the swing states Biden won just because Trump wants them to, is a sign of lack of said anatomic feature :innocent:)
 
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An ex. colleague of mine, here in Sweden, the most laid back, quiet person imaginable - She is die-hard anti china, since she practises Falun-Gong. This has resulted in her posting election propaganda videos all over her facebook wall and she really buys into it. Since Trump and Pompeo take vocal anti-china stances then they must be saviours and Biden's win orchestrated by China. Now, this is obviously extremely common in the US. There are millions and millions buying into it. I really wasn't expecting it here though. And not from this person.
 
I expect that Biden can become pretty hard vs China as well. He might even be more critical towards their approach on human rights.
But maybe I'm a little too hopeful here. We'll see.
 
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Yax said:
She is die-hard anti china, since she practises Falun-Gong.
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The irony here is that Trump empowered China, significantly so. China is much more powerful today than they were 4 years ago, and the alliances against China are weaker, thanks to the faulty ministrations by Trump. China's satellite, North Korea, is similarly empowered.

It's almost as if Falun Gong is selling a bag of goods. Now, they're allowed to worship as they see fit, but it's almost like they're participating in pro-Trump propaganda not to actually block the expansion of China, but to sell Falun Gong to MAGA-types without any critical thinking skills.
 
Comedy king Donald has Journey's Don't Stop Believing playing over the PA before giving a speech outside the White House hours before Congress will confirm his defeat :facepalm:
 
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