With the first debate a couple week and Joe Biden officially in, we're starting to get a clearer picture of who the eventual nominee may be. I know that seems kinda ridiculous when the first primary is still about half a year away, but 'Murica.
Even though there are a ton of candidates, there are really only 5 serious candidates: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete, Kamala Harris. I really don't see anyone else having a real shot.
Before Biden entered the race, I made a couple predictions and said this about Biden:
I’m not mentioning Biden in any of this cause he’s a total wild card. I’m not convinced he’s actually going to run and if he does I don’t think he will be the powerhouse people are expecting. He’s obviously concerned about the toil of a presidential campaign so I don’t expect him to even make it to Iowa unless he has a real shot. He’s polling fine now but that will change when the debates start and the public really gets to know the candidates.
His polling had a huge surge when he entered, but it is already starting to taper off, while others are improving in polls (mostly Bernie, Warren, Mayor Pete). I still stand by what I said. So far he is running a really poor campaign. He is really going out of his way to sell himself as Republican-lite, which isn't going to cut it. Right now he is doing fine in polls because most people don't know him for anything other than the Obama association. He seems electable and the closest thing to a third Obama term, but I'm certain that once there are debates and his platform becomes more widely known, he will drop further.
Meanwhile, Warren has really picked up some ground after a shaky (to say the least) start. She's really starting to grow on me as a candidate and I could see her taking the progressive vote from Bernie (Bernie is still a favorite though). I like her more than Bernie, personally. I hope that, when a clear frontrunner between them emerges, they join forces in some form.
The boost Mayor Pete saw a couple months ago seems to be legit. If you're an establishment dem, this is the guy you should be getting behind. Not Biden. I hope the establishment realizes this and migrates toward Mayor Pete. I don't think it's far out of the realm of possibility either.
Kamala Harris has had a few moments but isn't really getting the same coverage as other candidates. It could be sexism, it could be something else. I personally think she is the most qualified of the bunch and maybe that will be more apparent on the debate stage. Hard to say at this point.
I don't see a dramatic change in polling, at least in terms of who the frontrunners are. I think these low polling candidates have the potential to surge after the first debate: Andrew Yang, Tulsi Gabbard, Cory Booker. Yang has a ton of charisma and is running on only one issue (UBI) that nobody else is talking about. He isn't going to become formidable, but I think he is going to get his ideas into the DNC platform and will probably end up with a job in the administration of whoever the nominee is. Tulsi Gabbard is kind of similar, probably gunning for a secretary of defense type of position. They both have small but cultish fanbases, not unlike Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina. That won't translate to a primary win, but they will be more impactful than pretty much every other candidate in their position. Cory Booker is pretty boring on policy but charismatic and a skilled politician. I think he will look good on the debate stage. Everyone else is wasting everybody's time and should drop out/run for a different office. Beto's campaign in particular is turning into a joke. He used to have appeal for being young and charismatic, but Mayor Pete has all those qualities and does it better/is also more qualified.
A big part of this is also that there will be two debates to account for the large crowd. This is honestly the biggest problem with the primary field size. We really should be seeing the frontrunners together, but the DNC isn't going to do that because they don't want to come off as if they are meddling in the process. Seeing Joe Biden debate a bunch of no-names with no chance is a waste of time and not good for the process. Unfortunately, who is on which debate stage is going to be totally random.
