In other news, have you guys checked out Bernie’s town hall? He’s not my favorite candidate, not even in my top three, but if he puts on the same sort of performance during the debates he is going to easily win the nomination and crush Trump in the general. That was a masterclass of politics and really impressed me even as a Bernie skeptic. He easily dodged all the attempts at gotcha questions (it was on Fox News) and he was able to present his ideas in a way that seemed feasible and made sense to a general audience. Most importantly, he delivered to a rust belt audience, where Obama voters switching to Trump handed him the election. That region is Trump’s only path to victory. I’ve talked about Bernie before and I’ve been very critical of him and his chances of winning, but I’m starting to rethink my position on that.
The primary has taken some interesting turns and the first debates are fast approaching. A ton of candidates are polling below 1% including some who should be doing better.
The surge from Mayor Pete is really surprising. I’ve even heard rumors that the democratic establishment is looking to get behind him, which isn’t necessarily a bad idea. Not including Joe Biden, I see 5 major players in this race.
If I was to make a prediction (which is a foolish thing to do this early), I’d say Bernie, Beto, Pete, Harris, Warren, Yang, Gabbard make it to Iowa. Yang has no realistic chance but he has a devoted following and has probably has enough money to go into the convention to act as a sort of spoiler. Tulsi’s campaign isn’t going well but she has the most potential of any of the below 5% candidates of increasing her profile after a debate. Warren and Harris drop out after losing MA and California respectively. I kinda think Beto will drop out in time to run for senate again, same with Hickenlooper. The race will ultimately come down to Bernie vs Mayor Pete. The VP will obviously be a woman, either Kamala Harris or maybe even Stacy Abrams.
I’m not mentioning Biden in any of this cause he’s a total wild card. I’m not convinced he’s actually going to run and if he does I don’t think he will be the powerhouse people are expecting. He’s obviously concerned about the toil of a presidential campaign so I don’t expect him to even make it to Iowa unless he has a real shot. He’s polling fine now but that will change when the debates start and the public really gets to know the candidates.