USA Politics

The Flash said:
I do, too.

I think Trump's edge comes more from general current attitudes expressed in American society (and Western society in general) than actual political dynamics like policy-making or electoral candidates.
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The problem with that explanation is it doesn’t account for the realities of the last two elections. Trump won with independents and he needs them to win. His base isn’t numerically strong enough to win elections. He won 2016 by small margins in states that trended back to Democrats in 2018. He needs those to win. He was able to get independents to give him a chance because he came in with no policy record that could be used against him. His extreme positions could’ve been dismissed as hyperbole or unachievable. There was a perception of him as a moderate (https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/18/upshot/donald-trump-moderate-republican.amp.html). Essentially, people could project positions on to him.

Now he has a policy record and any illusion or projection is gone. His approval among independents isn’t good (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...s-with-independents-should-worry-republicans/) and they don’t like a lot of his policies.

Right now his best advantage is incumbency, but it comes at the cost of his advantage as an outsider.
 
Black Wizard said:
Are there any Democrats you would vote for to get rid of Trump?
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I will say this, I am not going to vote for Trump. Out of the Dem announced candidates, each has a few things I agree with .. but tons of things I do not. So, like last election, I will most likely vote 3rd party.
 
Mosh said:
The problem with that explanation is it doesn’t account for the realities of the last two elections. Trump won with independents and he needs them to win. His base isn’t numerically strong enough to win elections. He won 2016 by small margins in states that trended back to Democrats in 2018. He needs those to win. He was able to get independents to give him a chance because he came in with no policy record that could be used against him. His extreme positions could’ve been dismissed as hyperbole or unachievable. There was a perception of him as a moderate (https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/18/upshot/donald-trump-moderate-republican.amp.html). Essentially, people could project positions on to him.

Now he has a policy record and any illusion or projection is gone. His approval among independents isn’t good (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...s-with-independents-should-worry-republicans/) and they don’t like a lot of his policies.

Right now his best advantage is incumbency, but it comes at the cost of his advantage as an outsider.
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I think all that is true, but as the election gets down to Trump versus whoever, the whoever will come under serious scrutiny and the polls are no longer Trump versus your ideal candidate (either a specific candidate who may or may not win the primary or a fictional person who has certain traits/positions), but Trump versus a specific person. Depending on who that person is, what their baggage is, and how they have to run to win the primary at least some of those independents might go "with the devil you know"
 
I think Trump's fate is out of his own hands. The Dems only need to move 20,000 votes per state in a few states to win the next election, and scandals will likely help. Hillary scored an own goal hard against Trump; can it happen again? Like I said before, there were a lot of things that added up to help the Donald, does incumbency balance not having most or all of those factors?
 
LooseCannon said:
I think Trump's fate is out of his own hands. The Dems only need to move 20,000 votes per state in a few states to win the next election, and scandals will likely help. Hillary scored an own goal hard against Trump; can it happen again? Like I said before, there were a lot of things that added up to help the Donald, does incumbency balance not having most or all of those factors?
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That is a good question, but it really comes down to who runs against him and how far they have to swing left to win the nomination. That is the Dems biggest problem this year IMO. In general being anti-incumbent only goes so far, you have to give people a reason to vote for you. Otherwise potential anti-incumbent voters either vote for the incumbent or sit out the election/vote 3rd party. A pretty centrist Dem would have a massive edge in 2020, but a centrist has no shot at winning.
 
I agree that being a progressive is a bigger problem than being extremely right-wing, because right-wingers tend to vote for party rather than person, and true independents clearly vote for persons over party. Centrist Democrats are likely to stay home if someone like AOC was on the ballot. Luckily for the Dems she isn't (give her 20 years, and then she could win an election as generations change). But I think there's a pool of progressive voters that would shock the hell out of some GOP strategists.
 
bearfan said:
AOC is the Dems version of Sarah Palin
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I like her for the same reasons a lot of GOP people liked Palin, but I think the difference is that AOC has a brain and Palin doesn't. Given the time she'll have to grow, she could very well become a formidable force in the Democratic Party, whereas unfortunately Ms. Palin was given one of the biggest platforms possible and crashed and burned.
 
LooseCannon said:
I like her for the same reasons a lot of GOP people liked Palin, but I think the difference is that AOC has a brain and Palin doesn't. Given the time she'll have to grow, she could very well become a formidable force in the Democratic Party, whereas unfortunately Ms. Palin was given one of the biggest platforms possible and crashed and burned.
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Much of what she has said has been pretty moronic ... she has a pretty loose grasp on facts .. and her Green whatever FAQ could have been written by a 4th grader (lower half of the class).

Edit: I will say Palin would have been better off running for a lower national office first. She was not anywhere near ready for VP. AOC does have that going for her
 
LooseCannon said:
the difference is that AOC has a brain and Palin doesn't
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Yes, exactly. I see a lot of memes abusing her and outright calling her a Moron, yet she graduated top of her class with an Economics. Looking in as an outsider, I see her as a breath of fresh air for the US. She's not 85 years old and wants to make positive changes for people's lives. America needs that voice and in 2040 bearfan will be voting for her to be president. :p

If AOC was British I wouldn't vote for her but she's significantly preferable to the Jew-hating left wing politicians the UK has at the moment.
 
bearfan said:
Much of what she has said has been pretty moronic ... she has a pretty loose grasp on facts .. and her Green whatever FAQ could have been written by a 4th grader (lower half of the class).
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The Green New Deal was written in a very...broad and ambiguous method, and it's more of a statement of intent than it is a serious piece of policy. I'd say it's clever politics in that it means whatever it wants to people. No piece of serious environmental policy has a chance of being passed today, so why not just put out a campaign piece? GOP did that all the time when they voted to repeal Obamacare whilst Obama was in office.

If the Dems can manage to pass a piece of serious policy based on the Green New Deal in, say, 2023, then I'd be impressed. Otherwise, it's just pandering to the base (a very Palin thing to do).
 
bearfan said:
Much of what she has said has been pretty moronic ... she has a pretty loose grasp on facts .. and her Green whatever FAQ could have been written by a 4th grader (lower half of the class).
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Most Americans read at a 4th grade level... there is a reason they identify with Trump so much. A president that doesn't read intelligence briefings? Talks like "one of the guys?" Repeats easy to learn, catchy slogans instead of actual policy? Yup... 4th grade.
 
Onhell said:
Most Americans read at a 4th grade level... there is a reason they identify with Trump so much. A president that doesn't read intelligence briefings? Talks like "one of the guys?" Repeats easy to learn, catchy slogans instead of actual policy? Yup... 4th grade.
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Yeah ... that is a huge problem.
 
Will history repeat again? A Rep candidate will win because the lefts/non-rights/Dem voters/however you wish to qualify this group, lack united purpose...

... because these people are going to be too divided in the end, meaning too many people pissed off about their candidate beaten by another Dem candidate, meaning they will not support that last remaining Dem person, meaning the Rep candidate will win.

Mark my words.
 
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Forostar said:
Will history repeat again? A Rep candidate will win because the lefts/non-rights/Dem voters/however you wish to qualify this group, lack united purpose...

... because these people are going to be too divided in the end, meaning too many people pissed off about their candidate beaten by another Dem candidate, meaning they will not support that last remaining Dem person, meaning the Rep candidate will win.

Mark my words.
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This pretty much is what I've been saying. Trump will be re-elected by virtue of the electoral college - even if his share of the popular vote drops - because the Democrats won't find a credible candidate to oppose him.
 
You've gotto check this out, people.

‘You’re a millionaire funded by billionaires... and what they want you to do is scapegoat immigrants instead of talking about their tax evasion.’

A quote from the interview with Bregman Fox refused to broadcast. Now the one who was interviewed released it himself. Don't watch if you cannot take some Dutch directness. Certainly do watch if you want to see Fox presenter Tucker Carlson told how it fucking is. Carlson gets mad and starts to curse!

 
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