USA Politics
- Thread starter Genghis Khan
- Start date
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
The House will be interesting .. the Dems will have a majority, but how much of one is still TBD ... and a fair amount of their wins were more centrist candidates that probably want to have a chance to win again in 2 years and you have to wonder how reliable they are as a group for Pelosi.
If current results hold up, the GOP will be +4 in the Senate and I do think Manchin flipping parties is a possibility, with a narrow GOP majority, he had some sway as a swing vote ... with a bigger majority that is pretty much gone
If current results hold up, the GOP will be +4 in the Senate and I do think Manchin flipping parties is a possibility, with a narrow GOP majority, he had some sway as a swing vote ... with a bigger majority that is pretty much gone
I actually think Manchin is less likely to switch - he has all the freedom he needs now to vote his conscience, whatever that means. 2020 is a much more promising year for the Dems in the Senate.
It will be interesting to see what the absentee ballots bring, as they're likely to go to those in Montana, AZ, and Florida.
Beto now moves to a bigger stage and instantly a frontrunner in 2020.
It will be interesting to see what the absentee ballots bring, as they're likely to go to those in Montana, AZ, and Florida.
Beto now moves to a bigger stage and instantly a frontrunner in 2020.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
This is the million dollar question, there are some areas (like you mentioned and others) where they have common ground, but there is pressure for the left to not cooperate with Trump on anything .. even areas of agreement. It may come down to some things passing with mostly Republican votes and the newly elected centrist Dems.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
I am not sure, Colorado, Arizona, Maine (especially if Collins retires), and North Carolina are the only obvious opportunities for them. Alabama is an obvious opportunity for the GOP. Even if the Dems win all those, they are back to where they started before yesterday .. assuming current results hold up.
It will depend a lot on who the presidential candidate is, too. Obviously picking up one of the three current tossups helps them significantly in that case.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
For sure .. also depends on who retires between now and then ... but The Dems really needed to keep their loses to -2 to have a reasonable shot at taking back the Senate in 2020
Last edited:
Yeah, that makes sense. They need to win the presidency. Might be able to peel Murkowski off if they're really aggressive towards getting her in the caucus (or convince her to drop the R and go I, anyway, she's done that before).
Oh yeah, just to top up on Manchin - GOP leadership has 0 incentive to buy him over to the GOP side. Their margin for error, no matter how the issue plays out in the Senate, has certainly improved. If he switches over he probably won't even get the chair of a committee as none are up for grabs. He's better off remaining in the Dem caucus for now.
If the Dems improve in the senate in 2020 but don't win the presidency, I think that's when he switches. That way instead of being the 55th vote he's the 51st, and can almost certainly extort a committee or some significant boons for WV. Switching now would waste political capital - especially since WV already has a senator in the majority that he works fairly well with.
If the Dems improve in the senate in 2020 but don't win the presidency, I think that's when he switches. That way instead of being the 55th vote he's the 51st, and can almost certainly extort a committee or some significant boons for WV. Switching now would waste political capital - especially since WV already has a senator in the majority that he works fairly well with.
Black Wizard
Pleb Hunter
Travis should go on a road trip
No chance for a change there.
I think after last night we can safely put Alabama in the lean red territory for 2020. I don’t see any way they keep that seat unless Roy Moore wins the primary again, and even then it’s not a sure thing. So you almost have to give Republicans a +1 gain to start out with. I don’t see much of a path to victory for Senate dems in 2020. Then again, I didn’t see one for 2018 but a couple opened up as time went on even if they ended up losing anyway.
On Joe Manchin: His state is getting increasingly red but he is still more popular than Trump there and managed to avoid the fate of other red state dems. Even he underperformed last night and actually won by a pretty slim margin. Next time he will be up during a presidential election year and I'm not sure how he will do with a Democrat at the top of the ticket who will almost certainly be pretty far to the left of him. He might need to switch to survive. The timing definitely does make a difference though. I don't expect him to announce he will be switching today, but probably during this term.
I think the time is right for marijuana legalization across the board. Lots of red states getting are legalizing and this is the sort of issue that Republicans should be rallying behind. It's a great way for everyone to score political points with something that is fairly uncontroversial now.
On the other hand, it might be good to pivot toward ending corruption in Washington. Now that they have subpoena powers we're probably going to see a lot more trickle out about how shady Trump and his administration is. That could be a winning issue for them if they go about it the right way, but that also means Menendez has to go.
On Joe Manchin: His state is getting increasingly red but he is still more popular than Trump there and managed to avoid the fate of other red state dems. Even he underperformed last night and actually won by a pretty slim margin. Next time he will be up during a presidential election year and I'm not sure how he will do with a Democrat at the top of the ticket who will almost certainly be pretty far to the left of him. He might need to switch to survive. The timing definitely does make a difference though. I don't expect him to announce he will be switching today, but probably during this term.
I think the time is right for marijuana legalization across the board. Lots of red states getting are legalizing and this is the sort of issue that Republicans should be rallying behind. It's a great way for everyone to score political points with something that is fairly uncontroversial now.
I think they're going to have to work with Trump when they can. Being the party of obstruction just doesn't work for them, as unfair as that might be. And it is now clear that there really isn't that much electoral weight in the "resistance" movement. They can continue opposing him on hot button issues, but they're also going to have to prove in the next two years that they can be a functioning governing body even with a Republican president and senate.
On the other hand, it might be good to pivot toward ending corruption in Washington. Now that they have subpoena powers we're probably going to see a lot more trickle out about how shady Trump and his administration is. That could be a winning issue for them if they go about it the right way, but that also means Menendez has to go.
Black Wizard
Pleb Hunter
When do the Democrats start maneuvering for a failed bid for the White House in 2020?
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
.. about a year ago
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
Manchin is 71 ... so he will be 77 next time around ... there is a at least a 50-50 chance this was his last election
Black Wizard
Pleb Hunter
But when do people start confirming their candidacy and then the whole primary circus?
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
probably starting late summer 2019 .. though it will be really obvious before then when they start visiting New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and Iowa a lot
Depends on if he wants to follow in the footsteps of fellow West Virginian Robert Byrd...at which point Manchin has about 5 more races in him!
A minor congressman has already announced for the Dems.
You mean like Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, and John Hickenlooper have been doing?
Gillibrand has said she's out, who knows if that's true.I think Beto tosses his hat in the ring as well, quick. He's sitting on mountains of cash still.