USA Politics

Forostar said:
Do you have more info on this?

Probably, I'd call moderate (in the middle) US people also right-wing (conservative), but I wonder what you mean.
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Here’s an example: http://www.people-press.org/2017/10...reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/#

If you add up the left-leaning categories they’ll be consistently over 50%.

You can find some polls that try to compare self-identified “liberals” to self-identified “conservatives” and show a big lead among conservatives, but the results are skewed because the right managed to turn “liberal” into a dirty word here, so many left-leaning folks in the U.S. use other terms like “progressive” instead, and therefore aren’t counted in the liberal category in those sorts of polls.

As far as U.S. left-wingers vs. European ones, I’m not in a great position to judge, but you’re probably correct that the U.S. left is generally not as far left as in other places.
 
There are typically more people identify as Democrat than Republicans. https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx More people are registered democrat as well: https://www.axios.com/democrats-cru...rms-872f7ad2-7a3b-4f7c-97b0-8070448e2df4.html

As you'll notice, most people aren't affiliated with either party (myself included). I would have to do more research but I want to say Independents tend to lean more toward dems.

So as an electorate, Right Wingers are in the minority. You also see this when they have only won the popular vote in one presidential election in the last 20 years.
 
Today's Senate Polls
State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
Arizona Kyrsten Sinema 52% Martha McSally 48% Oct 27 Oct 30 Vox Populi
California Dianne Feinstein* 36% Kevin de Leon (D) 29% Oct 10 Oct 24 YouGov
Florida Bill Nelson* 50% Rick Scott 50% Oct 27 Oct 30 Vox Populi
New Jersey Bob Menendez* 51% Bob Hugin 39% Oct 25 Oct 31 Stockton U.
Pennsylvania Bob Casey* 54% Lou Barletta 40% Oct 28 Nov 01 Muhlenberg Coll.
Tennessee Phil Bredesen 44% Marsha Blackburn 44% Oct 22 Oct 29 East Tennessee State U.
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin* 53% Leah Vukmir 44% Oct 29 Oct 31 Emerson Coll.

If those Tennessee numbers hold, that will be really interesting. Bredesen might have an anti-incumbent effect somewhat as Blackburn is from the holding party. The NJ numbers seem to go against the narrative of Menendez losing. Florida is going to be extra tight.
 
Every other TN poll has Blackbburn with a lead from 4 to 9 points

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/30 -- -- 49.2 44.0 Blackburn +5.2
Emerson 10/28 - 10/30 632 LV 4.0 52 44 Blackburn +8
FOX News 10/27 - 10/30 718 LV 3.5 50 41 Blackburn +9
CNN 10/24 - 10/29 764 LV 4.3 49 45 Blackburn +4
East Tennessee State University 10/22 - 10/29 495 LV 4.4 44 44 Tie
NBC News/Marist 10/23 - 10/27 471 LV 5.7 51 46 Blackburn +5


I don't think Menendez is losing, but other polls (known polls, what is Stockton U?) has it closer, but in any case, the Dems are spending time and money in what should be a really safe seat because Menendez is seriously ethically challenged, which is why it is even any kind of race to start with


RCP Average 10/10 - 10/30 -- -- 49.8 42.2 Menendez +7.6
Stockton University* 10/24 - 10/30 598 LV 4.0 51 39 Menendez +12
Emerson 10/24 - 10/26 659 LV 4.0 47 42 Menendez +5
Rutgers-Eagleton 10/12 - 10/16 496 LV 5.1 51 46 Menendez +5
Quinnipiac 10/10 - 10/16 873 LV 4.3 51 44 Menendez +7
Monmouth 10/11 - 10/15 527 LV 4.3 49 40 Menendez +9
 
bearfan said:
I don't think Menendez is losing, but other polls (known polls, what is Stockton U?) has it closer, but in any case, the Dems are spending time and money in what should be a really safe seat because Menendez is seriously ethically challenged, which is why it is even any kind of race to start with
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Agreed - Menendez is really quite weak. The GOP nominated someone who is also similarly challenged, so maybe it's just New Jersey? Of course, Menendez's baggage is far wider known. Should be safe.
bearfan said:
Every other TN poll has Blackbburn with a lead from 4 to 9 points
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Agreed - hence, I said "if". It's probably an outlier, but if a few more polls show Bredesen tightening, it could be indicative of motion towards him.
 
Bredesen was running a tight race in the polls until he said he would have voted to confirm Kavanaugh. It looks like things are normalizing again as the Kavanaugh story is no longer a hot issue.
 
Tennessee Phil Bredesen 48% Marsha Blackburn 52% Oct 09 Oct 12 Targoz Market Research
Tennessee Phil Bredesen 49% Marsha Blackburn 49% Oct 28 Oct 31 Targoz Market Research

That set of poll results - one older, one newer - is interesting in Tennessee. Targoz is based in Nashville and specializes in polling in the state, so it does read to the narrative of things tightening back up there.
 
In any case, we will find out Tuesday. Really comes down to who actually voted or will vote on election day
 
I’m hearing a lot about early voting surges in Texas and especially Tennessee.
 
I guess the question are "is it people that would have voted anyway just voting earlier because it really is easier (at least in Texas)" so you just move your votes up ... or is someone really gaining votes
 
I have a feeling a few of these races - NV, AK, TN - are going to come right down to the wire. As a foreign spectator, it should be very exciting.
 
The 538 numbers are interesting, they actually give Heitkamp a better chance of victory (25%) than Bredesen (20%). Not a good sign for the Dems. They put Beto at 2/9, so like 22%.
 
LooseCannon said:
They put Beto at 2/9, so like 22%.
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so-youre-saying-theres-a-chance-memes-com-16169791.png
 
A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds a big shift by independent likely voters has pushed Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) to a double-digit lead over challenger Bob Hugin (R), 55% to 40%.
A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the U.S. Senate race by seven points, 51% to 44% among likely voters. In the race for governor, Andrew Gillum (D) leads Ron DeSantis (R) by the same margin, 50% to 43%.
A new NBC News/Marist poll in Florida finds Andrew Gillum (D) leading Ron DeSantis (R) in the race for governor, 50% to 46%. In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Bill Nelson (D) leads Gov. Rick Scott (R), 50% to 46%.
A new NBC News/Marist poll in Missouri finds Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) leading challenger Josh Hawley (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 47%.

The Florida polls are all just outside the margin of error; the MO poll is barely within.
 
Polls seem to be showing a late uptick in general for Democrats. 538 is now giving them a 1 in 5 chance of winning the Senate, which is slightly better than where they were the past few weeks (hovering around 1 in 7). They are also giving Jackie Rosen the edge in Nevada. With that in mind, I'm standing by my prediction of a tied Senate. The blue wave is looking increasingly like a real thing and I think that (plus incumbency advantage) will be enough to stave off any losses besides ND. They might even be able to win one of the lean red races.

Dems are also seeing yet another bump in the house. Again on 538 they're up 87% with a forecasted popular vote victory of 9 points.

I expect that unless Dems take the Senate or GOP takes the house, the result will be spun as a victory by both parties.
 
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/el...-defends-vote-hacking-investigation-i-n931336


More than 35 million early votes have been counted nationwide as of Monday — well more than the total cast in the 2014 midterm elections.

That year, just more than 21 million early votes were tabulated.



The NBC News Data Analytics Lab, using voter file data from TargetSmart, found that 35,526,881 early votes were counted nationwide as of Monday. In states that have early voting, 42 percent of voters are Republican, 41 percent are Democrats, and 17 percent have either independent or have another party affiliation.

Republican-affiliated voters have outpaced Democratic-affiliated voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas. In Nevada, Democratic-affiliated voters have outpaced their Republican counterparts.

The total early vote as of Election Day in 2016, a presidential election year when turnout is much higher, was 46,314,207.
 
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