Black Wizard
Pleb Hunter
I don't think you are eligible to vote in the United States NP.
Mustaine/Schaffer 2024?
Mustaine/Schaffer 2024?
USA Politics
- Thread starter Genghis Khan
- Start date
Collin
Chasing Ponce De Leon's Phantoms
Nugent/Mustaine would really get people riled up!
Jer
'Til Tomorrow
You have a point, but Hillary wasn’t much further to the left of Bill and she still managed to get the nomination in 2016. (I’m sure her gender and last name played a role, of course.) But she’s clearly on the right-leaning end of today’s Democratic party.
A lot of that is perception. The right tried (and in many ways succeeded) to tie Hillary to the progressive wing of the party even though she's really not. It didn't help that Bernie pulled her campaign further to the left. I think policy-wise she would've been more of a 90s style Democrat, especially with what would've probably been a Republican controlled congress.
Decided to try my hand at predicting the Senate today. It's pretty early and things will probably change between now and November but this is what I've got so far:
With just a week before the election, I thought I would revisit this. I still predict a 50/50 split on the Senate, which is a huge win for Democrats. However, I've changed my mind on some individual states after recent events and polling. I think MO and FL will stay safe for Dems, but they will lose ND. Polling looks really bad for Heitkamp, but at the same time I don't think it is a lost cause like many are treating it. ND is a state where polling could easily be off. They will probably not flip TN. AZ and NV still flip. Polling is favorable to the Republican incumbent in NV, but I think the political environment is going to allow a small upset victory. This is also a state that favored Trump in the polls but ultimately went for Hillary.
I still don't think they will flip Texas, but I have to admit I'm getting a bit of Beto fever. He is really running one of the best state level campaigns in recent history.
It's really going to be an exciting night though. Everything is really a polling error away from Republicans preserving their majorities in both houses or Democrats flipping both.
You didn't specify the country.
Black Wizard
Pleb Hunter
This is the US Politics thread.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
She had a ton of money and the "it's that person's turn" factor .. ala Bob Dole in 1996 .. and she was able to pretty much clear the field outside of Bernie
Edit: If it were Bill instead of Hillary (or maybe even Hillary now) they would get hammered by #metoo and what they did to women who made claims against Bill when he was in Arkansas. maybe something happened, maybe it did not .. but they really tore into anyone making a claim
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
I don't know .. if you look at the polling, the GOP will pick up 2 seats and have a shot at 1 or 2 more ... I have a hard time seeing 50-50 .. of course polling can be wrong
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html
Yeah it's not looking great right now for the Dems in the Senate. I think this is a year the polling will be wrong, however, just because this is the most enthusiastic midterm since 2010 (and it surpasses that election in many ways) and polling models often have a hard time dealing with surges in people who were previously unlikely to vote (see Trump, Donald J, 2016).
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
I think most people (Dems included) admit they lose North Dakota for sure , probably Indiana and Missouri ... Montana and Florida maybe (hard to tell post hurricane especially given Scott has gotten good marks for it and it obviously makes polling hard), outside shot at New Jersey (due to Menendez being a scumbag, but if anything the Dems are having to spend a lot of money on a seat that should be incredibly safe for them). Their only real good shot at a gain is Arizona ... anywhere else is a longshot. I just do not see where they gain seats given which Senators are up for re-election this year.
So, probably GOP plus 2 .. possibly plus 4
So, probably GOP plus 2 .. possibly plus 4
I could see GOP picking up anywhere from 1 to 5 seats, but the national environment will protect most of the incumbents IMO. The opposing party rarely loses any seats anyway, so I expect Dem losses to be pretty minimal. That being said, it is looking to be a high turnout year and will be pretty unconventional for a midterm. Like I said before, that could mean anything from a democrat upset to GOP picking up 5 seats and everything in between.
No. Nevada is very tight as well. I agree that short of insane polling mistakes that Heitkamp is done. Missouri is closer than Indiana - the dem there is polling ahead of his challenger, who was another very right-wing fellow. Jersey has the same chance of flipping as Texas. I think we end up where we stsrted, 51-49.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
I think that is probably true . but keeping in mind the Dems need to get to 51 seats (because of Pence) to control the Senate, their chances of getting there are pretty much zero.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
Forgot about Nevada .. but Heller seems in decent shape there. Polling models are more difficult now more than ever .. they could be missing a Dem surge, they could be missing a GOP counter surge ... who knows ... but again, I think the Dems winning the Senate is highly unlikely just due to the fact the map favors the GOP this year ... a different map would probably be a different story.
The Dems will almost certainly win the House .. the question is my how much (and will it be enough for the liberal wing to be able to pass things without depending on the remaining Blue Dogs .. who will not support large chunks of their agenda .. which would never make it past the Senate and President anyway, but there is still value in at least passing things for reconciliation conferences
Black Wizard
Pleb Hunter
What is the difference between the House and the Senate? Is it an upper and lower house sort of thing?
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
Exactly .. Senate is 50 seats (2 per state), approx 1/3 of the Senate is up for election every 2 years, they serve 6 year terms.
House is 435 Seats (allocated to states based on population), all are up for re-election every 2 years. So all 2 year terms
Any legislation needs to pass both both and be signed by the President.
Senate is considered the upper house, the House the lower house
Well based on polling it’s more like a 20% chance dems take the senate. 
I really don’t think it’s that far outside the realm of possibility though. All it takes is a polling error in AZ (which happened in 2016) + an upset in one of the three lean reds (Texas, ND, TN). It’s a long shot but definitely a non zero chance.
Electorally the House is much larger with representatives proportional to the population (higher population states have more representatives). They’re elected by district. Each state only gets two senators, regardless of the size. So there are 50 senators and they are elected by the entire state they represent.
Edit: Sniped by Bearfan
I really don’t think it’s that far outside the realm of possibility though. All it takes is a polling error in AZ (which happened in 2016) + an upset in one of the three lean reds (Texas, ND, TN). It’s a long shot but definitely a non zero chance.
I touched on this in an earlier post. I think a lot of the victories in the house this year will come back to bite them when they control all branches of government and are unable to get votes from Blue Dogs. Similar problem GOP has had with the tea party.
Most things need to pass both chambers to get to the president (some exceptions like Judicial/Presidential appointments which are just voted on by the Senate). Most of the time legislation starts in the House and then is adjusted, passed, or voted down by the senate. Anything involving a budget has to start in the House, but other than that the Senate could create legislation too. Impeachment also starts in the House and the investigative committees have subpoena power (although it’s very likely this will be tested by the Supreme Court in the near future).
Electorally the House is much larger with representatives proportional to the population (higher population states have more representatives). They’re elected by district. Each state only gets two senators, regardless of the size. So there are 50 senators and they are elected by the entire state they represent.
Edit: Sniped by Bearfan
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
Well based on polling it’s more like a 20% chance dems take the senate.
I really don’t think it’s that far outside the realm of possibility though. All it takes is a polling error in AZ (which happened in 2016) + an upset in one of the three lean reds (Texas, ND, TN). It’s a long shot but definitely a non zero chance.
It is not a non-zero chance .. but it is pretty close to zero IMO. Too many unlikely things need to happen.
20% seems to be right. I prefer this site: https://electoral-vote.com/ for my senate predictions and they have a pretty hefty GOP pickup of 2 seats right now (ND and MO). I tend to think Nevada will break towards the Dems in the end due to the anti-incumbency effect in undecideds (which significantly helped Trump in 2016, as Hillary was running essentially as an incumbent). I think we're looking at 45-50 seats for the Dems to pick up in the House.