Well I watched a good chunk of the hearing. Caught most of the first half of Ford's testimony and then came back in the middle of Kavanaugh's opening statement. There was a pretty big contrast between the two. Ford was composed, cooperative, and (at least from what I saw) didn't avoid questions. There also seemed to be a focus on the facts and getting the complete story. The Kavanaugh bit, on the other hand, was a total partisan shitshow. Kavanaugh was combative, defiant, and skirted a lot of questions. Republicans only seemed interested in complaining about the process and Democrats stumbled a bit with the line of questioning. I think the emphasis on an FBI investigation is good, trying to paint a picture of his true character is good, some of it came off sloppily. There was a lot of campaigning going on there.
As for the actual content of the testimony. Ford seemed very credible. Her memory of what happened was pretty much what you would expect for an incident that happened almost 36 years ago. Her statements have been consistent and it's pretty obvious that she has nothing to gain from coming forward. Kavanaugh has a lot going for him though. There's presumption of innocence, for one. He also has character witnesses and the calendar as evidence. Right now you've got two people who are adamant that they are telling the truth. The right is trying to push the idea that this is a case of mistaken identity, but it now seems just as likely that Kavanaugh was so drunk that he genuinely doesn't remember this happening. If anything new came out of the testimony, I'm much more convinced now that he had (or maybe still has) serious alcohol problems. He went to great lengths to downplay the drinking and seemed most defensive when that was brought up.
The next steps are obvious: there needs to be an investigation and Kavanaugh's friend, Judge, needs to testify under oath. If this doesn't happen and he is confirmed, SCOTUS has a severe legitimacy problem. I've seen a minority of liberals suggesting that Democrats either pack the court or impeach justices when they are back in power. Initially, I thought both were awful ideas, but Republicans are really opening themselves up to, at the very least, an investigation against Kavanaugh while he is on the bench. I can't even imagine the shitshow that will come with a sitting justice under investigation. Kavanaugh said it himself. Regardless of what happens, this will be hanging over him for the rest of his career. I don't know why he would even want the job still at this point, other than to give a finger to the senators who are standing in the way of his confirmation.
To that end, even if we assume he is 100% without a doubt innocent, this hearing made it more obvious than ever that the guy shouldn't be on the court. His temperament was really inappropriate for someone who is expected to act impartially. How can anyone believe that this guy will be capable of judging without his emotions getting in the way? Not to mention that if he wasn't a hyperpartisan before this all went down, he certainly is now. The court is already partisan, but neither Kavanaugh or his supporters are attempting to even pretend that isn't the case anymore. He is no doubt going to enter the SCOTUS with a vendetta against liberals. Again, even if he is completely innocent, as unfair as the process may have been, the whole thing is so tainted that there is no salvaging him as a valid justice.
Of course the vote could still fail. I'm thinking Kavanaugh has a 60% chance right now. Ben Sasse was thought to be a swing vote (I'm not sure how he was ever in the conversation) but is definitely a yes after this hearing. Flake gave no indication to how he would vote, but I'm thinking a no is still in the realm of possibility. I'm not going to even try and dissect his non-statement. I have a really hard time imagining Murkowski and Collins voting yes without hearing from the other accusers or without testimony from Judge. But who knows how the next three days will play out. It's certainly a nailbiter.
As for the actual content of the testimony. Ford seemed very credible. Her memory of what happened was pretty much what you would expect for an incident that happened almost 36 years ago. Her statements have been consistent and it's pretty obvious that she has nothing to gain from coming forward. Kavanaugh has a lot going for him though. There's presumption of innocence, for one. He also has character witnesses and the calendar as evidence. Right now you've got two people who are adamant that they are telling the truth. The right is trying to push the idea that this is a case of mistaken identity, but it now seems just as likely that Kavanaugh was so drunk that he genuinely doesn't remember this happening. If anything new came out of the testimony, I'm much more convinced now that he had (or maybe still has) serious alcohol problems. He went to great lengths to downplay the drinking and seemed most defensive when that was brought up.
The next steps are obvious: there needs to be an investigation and Kavanaugh's friend, Judge, needs to testify under oath. If this doesn't happen and he is confirmed, SCOTUS has a severe legitimacy problem. I've seen a minority of liberals suggesting that Democrats either pack the court or impeach justices when they are back in power. Initially, I thought both were awful ideas, but Republicans are really opening themselves up to, at the very least, an investigation against Kavanaugh while he is on the bench. I can't even imagine the shitshow that will come with a sitting justice under investigation. Kavanaugh said it himself. Regardless of what happens, this will be hanging over him for the rest of his career. I don't know why he would even want the job still at this point, other than to give a finger to the senators who are standing in the way of his confirmation.
To that end, even if we assume he is 100% without a doubt innocent, this hearing made it more obvious than ever that the guy shouldn't be on the court. His temperament was really inappropriate for someone who is expected to act impartially. How can anyone believe that this guy will be capable of judging without his emotions getting in the way? Not to mention that if he wasn't a hyperpartisan before this all went down, he certainly is now. The court is already partisan, but neither Kavanaugh or his supporters are attempting to even pretend that isn't the case anymore. He is no doubt going to enter the SCOTUS with a vendetta against liberals. Again, even if he is completely innocent, as unfair as the process may have been, the whole thing is so tainted that there is no salvaging him as a valid justice.
Of course the vote could still fail. I'm thinking Kavanaugh has a 60% chance right now. Ben Sasse was thought to be a swing vote (I'm not sure how he was ever in the conversation) but is definitely a yes after this hearing. Flake gave no indication to how he would vote, but I'm thinking a no is still in the realm of possibility. I'm not going to even try and dissect his non-statement. I have a really hard time imagining Murkowski and Collins voting yes without hearing from the other accusers or without testimony from Judge. But who knows how the next three days will play out. It's certainly a nailbiter.
