USA Politics

I'm curious to see how 538 does this cycle. A fair few news outlets are putting pressure on Nate Silver for his formula this cycle. Imagine 2 cycles ago when nobody had heard of predictive algorithms, and now they're all the rage!
 
I'm not sure what people are getting upset at Silver about. Is it because he's projecting Trump to win in Florida?
 
Mosh said:
I'm not sure what people are getting upset at Silver about. Is it because he's projecting Trump to win in Florida?
Click to expand...

Because he is suggesting that Trump has a better shot than any other aggregators/analysts and pollsters. The left is getting nervous.

That being said, Silver has increased Hillary's chance from 63% at 7am EST to 68% currently.
 
Well Trump does have a shot and the left should be nervous, not sure what the problem is with admitting that.
 
Somewhereonline said:
Yeah, none of that is classy like the 'Nuge at this Trump rally:

Click to expand...

Not only is that not Sixes' point, Nugent's appearance at the Trump rally only strengthens Sixes' position. A person who isn't any more knowledgeable about politics than the Average Joe (in this case, less knowledgeable) is appearing on a stage in support of a candidate because of his fame in an unrelated field.
 
Mosh said:
Well Trump does have a shot and the left should be nervous, not sure what the problem is with admitting that.
Click to expand...
Nate is using a new modifier in his algorithm that almost nobody else is. If he is closer to the result, it means he is right - and everyone else plays catchup. If he is further away than the other pollers, then it means his methodology was wrong all along, and since 538 has the ability to drive things like enthusiasm amongst supporters, may have been influencing the election in ways unintended.
 
The Flash said:
Not only is that not Sixes' point, Nugent's appearance at the Trump rally only strengthens Sixes' position. A person who isn't any more knowledgeable about politics than the Average Joe (in this case, less knowledgeable) is appearing on a stage in support of a candidate because of his fame in an unrelated field.
Click to expand...

Yeah I don't doubt Trump has used some form of celebrity endorsements as well...It's fucked up no matter what side...it's the act in itself I'm against. I'm well ware that it's a long running cultural tradition in campaigns but that doesn't make it any less distasteful to hear or see.
 
I'm so glad this campaign will be over tomorrow. It's about to cross the border of being humanly bearable.
 
Somewhereonline said:
Don't forget that the VP presides over the senate and casts tiebreaker votes. It's almost like whichever party wins the executive branch gets an extra Psuedo-senator. If the Dems keep their seats and pick up 4 more + Hillary wins, the Dems theoretically control the senate.

Here's a list of how many times a VP has cast senate votes:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lis..._cast_by_vice_presidents_of_the_United_States
Click to expand...


Yeah, that is pretty rare .. but for major stuff, the key number is 60 to bring it to a final vote.
 
Mosh said:
I'm not sure what people are getting upset at Silver about. Is it because he's projecting Trump to win in Florida?
Click to expand...

They are upset at him because he is not reporting the numbers they want .. all moot after another few days anyway .. minus any close races that go on for a while.
 
The Flash said:
Not only is that not Sixes' point, Nugent's appearance at the Trump rally only strengthens Sixes' position. A person who isn't any more knowledgeable about politics than the Average Joe (in this case, less knowledgeable) is appearing on a stage in support of a candidate because of his fame in an unrelated field.
Click to expand...
This is the same as every election in every democracy ever.
 
Not much sympathy here for people who put that much worth in a celebrity's political opinion.
 
LooseCannon said:
This is the same as every election in every democracy ever.
Click to expand...

And that's supposed to make it a non-issue? Okay.

That has never been the case in Turkey, btw. You will never see celebrities on stage with candidates before elections. You won't even see them endorsing anyone. So no, it's not the same way everywhere. The amount of showbiz that goes into play in American elections is substantially bigger than anywhere else.
 
In things that really make you wonder from recent email dumps .. Hillary had he maid print out classified emails for her.
 
The Flash said:
And that's supposed to make it a non-issue? Okay.

That has never been the case in Turkey, btw. You will never see celebrities on stage with candidates before elections. You won't even see them endorsing anyone. So no, it's not the same way everywhere. The amount of showbiz that goes into play in American elections is substantially bigger than anywhere else.
Click to expand...


I wish it would go away .. but I guess these people have a right to their opinion and people have the right to be moronic enough to listen to them
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top