USA Politics

Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Yes, its unfortunate, but I think, ultimately, a bad choice for a VP.  To me, she's like ketchup-- just like with a cheese burger, on a good candidate she has no use; on a seim-ok candidate, she might cover the taste; on a bad candidate, she is no help at all; by her self, she has no value at all.

I wish he would have chosen one of, maybe, a dozen better female options there.

@LC, great ad.
I just saw this:  McCain has asked Obama to join him in suspending the presidential campaigning until they (as senators) help to find an acceptable plan to ease in the financial crisis.  He would like to postpone (not cancell) the debates that are currently scheduled.  He (McCain) is also asking to have he and Obama be appointed to a committee to adress these issues.

The article also stated that it put Obama in a bind; if he doesn't accept the offer it will seem as if McCain is above politics while Obama is entrenched in them.  However, if Obama agrees, he will be seen as a follower, and not a leader.  Personally, I don't know if that is really an issue.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Hmm.  Canny move by McCain.  I expect Obama and McCain will both suspend their campaign till Monday to get this done.  However, the debate may continue as scheduled.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Yeah, it is.  So far, both Yahoo! and MSN are thinking that Obama is not 'inclined' to give up on the debate.  I'll be interested in hearing his press release.

Also, seems that Bush, the mighty Dubbya, is going to be on tv tonite explaining his bail out program. 
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

____no5 said:
she is the right woman, that's why she raised Mc Cain in polls
she gives the feeling of the woman of the next door, thus a very good choise for republican profile

Here's the problem with that - and I won't take credit for what I'm about to say. I got it from an editorial written by Roger Ebert (yes, the movie critic) which got quite a bit of publicity a couple of weeks ago (Google for it if you care).

You don't want the President of the USA - supposedly the most powerful person in the world - to be someone like you. You want the President to be better than you. You want the President to be brilliant and courageous - among the best that the human race has to offer. For the vast majority of people, thinking "that candidate is just like me" ought to eliminate the candidate from consideration, not make you want to vote for them.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Funny, I thought Bush got elected because most hill billy idiots could identify with him, not because he was better than them...
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Nah, he got elected 'cause Jeb hooked him up.

And I agree with Roger Ebert (through SMX), I want a president that's better than me... that makes sense to me.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

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What Nobody's Saying: The Bailout Will Kill the Dollar

Highlights:

...besides the direct bill handed to taxpayers for this gigantic con, there is the fact that adding that much to the national debt is also going to drive the dollar down precipitously against foreign currencies. We’re already seeing that happen, even while they’re just talking about the bailout. The dollar is falling against all major currencies—the Euro, the Yen, the Renminbi and the British pound. And it will continue to fall as the details of the bailout come out.

This will add to already powerful pressures in countries like Saudi Arabia and China, which hold huge quantities of US dollars and US dollar-denominated debt, to shift out of dollars and into other currencies—particularly the Euro and the Yen. Last week, an article in China’s People’s Daily, which like Pravda in the old Soviet Union, is the official voice of the leadership in China, called for just such a move. Russia is also calling for an end to the dollar as the underpinning of the global economy.

As long as the dollar has been the reserve currency—the currency in which key commodities like gold or oil were priced, and the currency that exporting nations stocked in their treasuries as a store of value – it was protected against collapse. But once it loses that status, there will be nothing to prop it up any longer, and it will quickly slide to a value that it deserves. We got an inkling of what is going to happen today, as crude oil prices leapt in the course of one hour by 25%, the biggest jump in the history of the oil market. This was purely a move caused by loss of confidence in the dollar. There was no oil supply disruption. In fact, demand for oil has been sinking as the economic crisis grows. Oil producers and traders simply realized that the dollar is going poof, so they radically jacked up the cost of oil in dollars.

Since agriculture has been killed off in most of the US, in favor of giant agribusiness enterprises situated in the western part of the country and some parts of the Midwest, most people elsewhere will not have local produce available, and the cost of transporting food from California to places like New York or Pennsylvania will be prohibitive once the dollar collapses, since oil is priced internationally. Meanwhile, goods like TV sets, computers, phones, cars (or at least the key components of cars), clothing, etc., are no longer even made in the US, and will thus be completely unaffordable. As for the service jobs that are supposed to have replaced our old manufacturing sector, no one will be interested in buying what they’re offering, because they’ll be scrimping just to buy the key staples they need to survive, so of course joblessness will soar.

Eventually, of course, entrepreneurially minded people will begin establishing local farms again where they once flourished generations ago, and small factories will be built to provide key essentials, but all this will take time, and will have to cater to a market of people operating at a much lower standard of living.

It’s not about saving Main Street, as Paulson claims. Main Street, under the bailout, is toast.

The US will be left behind, a smoking ruin, with Americans, like Weimar Germans before them, going shopping with wheelbarrows full of worthless green paper to exchange for a few days’ groceries.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Well, I've feared that if the Chinese don't agree to loan the billions needed for a bailout, that Bush will just have the Fed fire up the presses and rip out another trillion of greenbacks.
Watching McCain speak now. He's issued a lot of the same criticisms of the Paulson plan as I've heard elsewhere - basically that there is no way in hell they are going to hand Paulson a $700 billion cheque and no oversight, that the money granted must be recoverable.  Not bad.  He's not even attacking Obama.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Here's the thing.

Since the GOP convention bounce ended, McCain's numbers have been diving faster than an SBD Dauntless off of USS Enterprise at the Battle of Midway (that's a little naval aviation joke).  Then he came up with this whole idea of suspending his campaign to return to Washington and broker a deal on the economy.  I could point out a lot of things wrong with this, but I'm going to point out two things.

1. McCain isn't a member of the Senate Banking committee.  In other words, till it comes to a vote, he's a nobody.  In fact, all he's done is injected highly partisan politics into an issue that looked likely to spawn serious collaboration between the GOP and the Democrats.
2. Why can't Sarah Palin campaign for him?

So, this comes back to the diving poll numbers.  McCain got a huge boost from the choice of Palin.  Unfortunately, though, Palin's star quickly soured as people realized that she's extremely inexperienced, that she's very distasteful to left-leaning people, and indeed, that she is not ready for big-time politics.  You can't just go back on your VP, though, and so McCain's people have been trying to hide her.  She's done, count 'em, three interviews to date.  She's done a handful of rallies and town hall meetings, and answered FOUR questions from reporters.  Not joking.  A total of four.  When McCain's staff gave her a powerfully written speech she delivered it well, but since then, she's done nothing.

It's dragged McCain down to the pre-convention levels - then the economy meltdown occurred.  Now, we're just getting the polling data in now from the week following the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Merrill-Lynch and the AIG buyout.  However, they are very bad numbers for McCain.  Obama has taken a double-digit lead in Michigan and strong leads in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and New Mexico.  Ohio is still up in the air (though trending slightly McCain right now).  Both Virginia and North Carolina are too close to call but with ever so slight leanings towards Obama.

While Ohio is a true battleground state, Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia and especially North Carolina should be easy wins for McCain.  But changing demographics have altered the race dynamics in 2008, and McCain is genuinely becoming less popular in these regions.  At the end of things, he needed to do something.  He's a gambler, so he decided that he'd appear as the saviour of the system.  He suspended his campaign, said no to the debate (but if we could reschedule it over the VP debate, that'd be super), and ran off to Washington to cause havok.  Now, though, since he's been slammed by pretty much everyone from Barack Obama to David Letterman to Mike Huckabee for backing out on the debate, it sounds like he'll be in Mississippi tonight.  McCain's most recent gamble may have backfired, and you can be sure that Obama will hammer him tonight and in the coming weeks for it.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

SNL skewers Palin again... check youtube when you get the chance, I'm sure the video will be up soon but only for a moment before the rat-bastard NBC lawyers get it taken down ... holyshitIwaslaughingsoharditmademyheadhurt ... "I'd like to use one of my lifelines!"
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Washington Post has the video:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/28/gov_palin_gets_the_snl_treatme.html

Edit - I have to laugh at the message I saw at the end of the video...
"We are having trouble connecting to our server. if you have any ad blocking software running please disable it."
Yeah, right. Wouldn't that entirely defeat the purpose of using AdBlock?
I think what they mean is:
"We know you've made an effort not to be annoyed by advertisements. Stop doing that, because we insist on annoying you anyway."
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Wasted155 said:
Well, to be completely honest with you, I'm not sure how the fall/rise in the US market will affect the rest of the world.  I'm sure the strenght (or weakness) of the US market will drive, in part, how the rest of the world is affected-- I don't know to what extent.

Here you go mate:

Europe urges swift US action on financial crisis

LONDON: European leaders urged the United States to quickly revive its defeated bank bailout proposal and stabilize the global financial system, as governments across the continent on Tuesday shored up their own banks against the virulent spread of the crisis.

EU Commission spokesman Johannes Laitenberger said that the "United States must take its responsibility in this situation, must show statesmanship for the sake of their own country, and for the sake of the world."

"The turmoil that we are facing has originated in the United States," he added. "It has become a global problem. The United States have a special responsibility in this situation."


Belgium's Dexia bank became the country's second to get a government-assisted bailout in as many days, while Ireland boosted bank stocks by guaranteeing domestic bank deposits. Central banks continued to pump short-term credit into banks in an effort to unfreeze interbank lending.

Still, money markets remained frozen while stock markets seesawed in response to the rejection by the U.S. House of Representatives of a US$700 billion plan to buy bad mortgage-related debts from ailing financial companies. Russia halted trading for part of the day as markets fell.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel called on U.S. lawmakers to pass a package this week, saying it was the "precondition for creating new confidence on the markets — and that is of incredibly great significance."

Christian Noyer, head of the French central bank, said the rejection Monday was "bad news," and added that "the Americans don't have a choice, they must absolutely have a global plan."

In Europe, central banks offered more cash to the market in an ongoing attempt to provide liquidity to the financial system as banks remain unprepared to lend to each other for all but the shortest periods. The Bank of England said it was offering up US$10 billion to a maximum of 10 bidders, while the European Central Bank offered US$30 billion to banks in an overnight operation with a minimum bid amount of US$5 million, and a maximum of US$3 billion.

In Ireland, banks shares surged after the government unveiled an unlimited guarantee on deposits at six domestic banks a day after the Irish Stock Exchange suffered its greatest fall in history. Investors embraced the government's dramatic intervention, reversing most of Monday's stunning stock falls.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan called on leaders across the 27-nation European Union to follow the Irish example as he also criticized American efforts as too slow.

Dexia bank got an agreement to inject of almost €6.4 billion ($9.2 billion) from Belgium, France and Luxembourg to keep it afloat. CEO Axel Miller — who immediately stepped down — said the bank had no real option to asking for state help because "our feeling was clearly that this week is going to be very tense on the market and we might be ... one of the banks that might be put under pressure."

The Dexia bailout was the latest in a rash of intervention in the European markets since Sunday, the governments of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg took partial control of struggling bank Fortis NV, Britain nationalized mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley, Germany organized a credit lifeline for blue-chip commercial real estate lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, and Iceland's government took control of Glitnir bank.

Europe has no comprehensive plan to rescue its financial systems in the case of widespread banking failures — there is so far at least no equivalent of the rejected U.S. TARP, or Troubled Assets Relief Program.

Global Insight chief European economist Howard Archer said that more cross-border rescues would be needed in Europe.

"In the eurozone, you may well see more of that because some of these banks, like Fortis, are now so big compared to the size of the country they operate in, that governments will have to work together to be able to afford to help," Archer said.

But the EU has so far rejected suggestions of an American-style cross-border bailout fund in favor of a case-by-case approach. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Monday that there had been "numerous contacts" between different European governments about the financial crisis.

"The situation calls for rapid responses," he said. "Everybody must keep a cool head and have a sense of responsibility."

Sarkozy met with the heads of France's major banks and insurance companies Tuesday to review the state of the nation's financial institutions.

Part of the problem in stopping the contagion in Europe is that the widening spotlight of fear is becoming increasingly indiscriminate. The Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, Britain's no. 3 bank with a solid business reputation, was compelled to attempt to reassure investors on Tuesday that it will not be adversely impacted by the government-backed rescue of Fortis after its shares dropped almost 6 percent.

Fortis was part of the RBS-led consortium last year that bought Dutch bank ABN Amro Holding NV for €72 billion, and RBS shares have fallen victim to suggestions that its own ABN Amro assets and planned integration of those assets could be affected.

RBS stressed that Fortis had already paid in full in cash for its ABN Amro stake, which is held in RFS Holdings, the consortium that also comprises Banco Santander SA and that should it sell that holding "the financial consequences would lie with Fortis."
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Interesting read, here.  Seems that the domino's have started to fall.  LC and talked about this (sort of) once, when he was discussing the chaos theory to me.... at that time, we were talking about the input of China's money into the US market.


Forostar said:
EU Commission spokesman Johannes Laitenberger said that the "United States must take its responsibility in this situation, must show statesmanship for the sake of their own country, and for the sake of the world."

"The turmoil that we are facing has originated in the United States," he added. "It has become a global problem. The United States have a special responsibility in this situation."

I think that the US does have a responsibility-- to a point.  First off, the responsibility is to its people, and how they are affected.  However, I still, really, have an issue with the gov't stepping in and doing too much.  It has been proven time and again that when the market isn't allowed to react naturally, it gets hurt.  Now, these are special circumstances, but I also think that its not the time for knee-jerk reactions.  So, I'm not opposed to the time that Congress is taking to make sure this works right.  (its hard to see where the ripples will move)
Belgium's Dexia bank became the country's second to get a government-assisted bailout in as many days, while Ireland boosted bank stocks by guaranteeing domestic bank deposits. Central banks continued to pump short-term credit into banks in an effort to unfreeze interbank lending.

Now, maybe I'm misunderstanding this, but the last part sounds not unlike the FDIC program, which has been around the states for a while.  Each person has up to $100k safe, per bank (not per account).  While I think its great that they are doing things like this, the US has been doing those things-- and the problem that they have right now is that they (the States) don't have the assets to cover all the FDIC accounts, if they were called upon to cover them... bad news.
Still, money markets remained frozen while stock markets seesawed in response to the rejection by the U.S. House of Representatives of a US$700 billion plan to buy bad mortgage-related debts from ailing financial companies. Russia halted trading for part of the day as markets fell.

Now, here is something that LC has stated, and I agree with: the fact that the market parameters have been taken away is a bad thing.  The fact that Russia 'halted trading' is a good move, IMO.  Something that the States had in place, but no longer is that protection there (I think LC said sometime in '99, just a few years before the nice tech crash)

German Chancellor Angela Merkel called on U.S. lawmakers to pass a package this week, saying it was the "precondition for creating new confidence on the markets — and that is of incredibly great significance."

Christian Noyer, head of the French central bank, said the rejection Monday was "bad news," and added that "the Americans don't have a choice, they must absolutely have a global plan."

I don't know... and that's an honest answer.  I'm not an economist, but I just don't know that stating its 'bad news' and that we 'don't have a choice' is all that accurate.  Granted, something must be done, but I also think that it is very important that the right amount of due diligence be given here.  The only thing worse than not acting at all, would be to react quickly and make a larger cluster fuck than is already there.
In Europe, central banks offered more cash to the market in an ongoing attempt to provide liquidity to the financial system as banks remain unprepared to lend to each other for all but the shortest periods. The Bank of England said it was offering up US$10 billion to a maximum of 10 bidders, while the European Central Bank offered US$30 billion to banks in an overnight operation with a minimum bid amount of US$5 million, and a maximum of US$3 billion.

In Ireland, banks shares surged after the government unveiled an unlimited guarantee on deposits at six domestic banks a day after the Irish Stock Exchange suffered its greatest fall in history. Investors embraced the government's dramatic intervention, reversing most of Monday's stunning stock falls.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan called on leaders across the 27-nation European Union to follow the Irish example as he also criticized American efforts as too slow.

Dexia bank got an agreement to inject of almost €6.4 billion ($9.2 billion) from Belgium, France and Luxembourg to keep it afloat. CEO Axel Miller — who immediately stepped down — said the bank had no real option to asking for state help because "our feeling was clearly that this week is going to be very tense on the market and we might be ... one of the banks that might be put under pressure."

The Dexia bailout was the latest in a rash of intervention in the European markets since Sunday, the governments of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg took partial control of struggling bank Fortis NV, Britain nationalized mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley, Germany organized a credit lifeline for blue-chip commercial real estate lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, and Iceland's government took control of Glitnir bank.

Europe has no comprehensive plan to rescue its financial systems in the case of widespread banking failures — there is so far at least no equivalent of the rejected U.S. TARP, or Troubled Assets Relief Program.

Global Insight chief European economist Howard Archer said that more cross-border rescues would be needed in Europe.

"In the eurozone, you may well see more of that because some of these banks, like Fortis, are now so big compared to the size of the country they operate in, that governments will have to work together to be able to afford to help," Archer said.

But the EU has so far rejected suggestions of an American-style cross-border bailout fund in favor of a case-by-case approach. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Monday that there had been "numerous contacts" between different European governments about the financial crisis.

"The situation calls for rapid responses," he said. "Everybody must keep a cool head and have a sense of responsibility."

Sarkozy met with the heads of France's major banks and insurance companies Tuesday to review the state of the nation's financial institutions.

Part of the problem in stopping the contagion in Europe is that the widening spotlight of fear is becoming increasingly indiscriminate. The Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, Britain's no. 3 bank with a solid business reputation, was compelled to attempt to reassure investors on Tuesday that it will not be adversely impacted by the government-backed rescue of Fortis after its shares dropped almost 6 percent.

Fortis was part of the RBS-led consortium last year that bought Dutch bank ABN Amro Holding NV for €72 billion, and RBS shares have fallen victim to suggestions that its own ABN Amro assets and planned integration of those assets could be affected.

RBS stressed that Fortis had already paid in full in cash for its ABN Amro stake, which is held in RFS Holdings, the consortium that also comprises Banco Santander SA and that should it sell that holding "the financial consequences would lie with Fortis."

Taking this last part as a whole, I am finding it interesting that some banks are needing multiple countries to back/bail them out.  The thing is a total mess, and I don't know that there is a good option going around.  It bothers me, bail outs, be cause it is very near to rewarding incompetence.  (looking back, that's probably why Dubbya doesn't have a problem with it)  Commenting on this, and something I read earlier (on this thread?)  about Bush just printing more money to cover all of this-- How much money is really out there, floating around?  I am asking, because I don't know.  What I do know, is all of this 'money' seems to be rather intangible.  Banks are only required to hold X% of savings accounts cash on hand.  It seems easier to hand out this money when there isn't a brief case full of cash involved.  "$700 billion?  sure just electronically transfer it." 
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

There's about three trillion dollars in printed money in the world, and something close to 25 trillion dollars in electronic cash.  That much I know.

Adding in another trillion to that would certainly destabilize the market more.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Thanks for reacting guys.

@Wasted: Perhaps I understood you wrong but governments taking an interest in banks is not just about rewarding incompetence. It's about securing innocent people who have money on these banks. How it exactly works, I have know clue, I'm not an economist. :)
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

I think Wasted's point is that in a true laissez faire economy, Foro, such banks would be allowed to fail as punishment for their idiocy.  Accounts in the USA are insured for up to 100k, so people won't lose everything.  Personally, I think it's irresponsible to bail out banks before making sure that they can't continue with the same practises that got them there.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Forostar said:
Thanks for reacting guys.

@Wasted: Perhaps I understood you wrong but governments taking an interest in banks is not just about rewarding incompetence. It's about securing innocent people who have money on these banks. How it exactly works, I have know clue, I'm not an economist. :)

LC was right, that was pretty much my point.  And the thing is, what I read, hear, and see on tv, this isn't really going to fix the American people.  Its going to fix the banks, which will, presumably, be more willing to extend credit, which may help the American people-- but only the ones that are going after new loans, not the ones that are stuck with the really shitty ones that the banks are getting rich off of.  As LC has stated, the bail out needs to be there to help the people in a bad spot, THAT, I think, will help the economy. 

And, yes, the banks that have proven to be totally incompetent.  Honestly, if I did my job like they did, I would be fired (at best).  Some of these people are really on the borderline of being criminal for their actions.  Fire all of them, hire new ones, and I'd be more interested in the whole bail out option.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Massive news today on the election: Obama is heading for a landslide!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

According to this site - the best of its kind out there, as far as I am concerned - Florida and Ohio are now blue states. Just barely, but blue nonetheless. And even some previously "strong" red states are downgraded to "weak" red (Texas, Mississippi and Georgia). All of these changes happened with today's update.

That site's methodology is worth noting. They don't just go by the single latest poll. Every state is an average of all polls taken in the last 7 days. So in order for a state to go blue, it means several recent polls have to be in Obama's favor.

A similar site getting a lot of attention this year is http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/. They have virtually the same electoral map, though they have Missouri and Indiana tied where e-v.com has them slightly red. The webmaster of that site was on TV the other day, noting the following:

Since 1960, no presidential candidate has come from behind to win when he's as far back in the polls as McCain is now, with one exception: Reagan in 1980. Which means that unless McCain suddenly develops the charisma of Reagan and Obama acquires the aura of failure which Carter had, it's almost impossible for McCain to win. (Assuming there's no "malfunction" in the Diebold machines.)
 
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