UK Politics

[CriedWhenBrucieLeft]

I find it lame to leave out personal wishes.

I've stated my views on Brexit, in this thread, before; why should I reiterate them again? Go & read them. We're now talking about what's happening in Parliament right now not our personal wishes. At least, everyone else is.

I want to know who I am talking to, not just to people who show what they make of it.

You want to know what people really think and feel; I get that. I refer you to my previous comment.

 

[Forostar]

What good can constructive talk do. I do not know what you guys want in this matter. I do not know where you stand.

 

[Forostar]

We posted at the same time, sorry. I will read that and then decide for myself how believable I still find it.

 

[CriedWhenBrucieLeft]

Stand now? Or where I stood three years ago (your "personal wishes")? In respect to the latter:

What we needed was cross-party talks early & a united parliament to take "the British position" to the EU & negotiate from there. May failed to do that & now it's too late. Corbyn/Labour are floundering around. It's all really disappointing but I don't suppose surprising looking at how politicians normally behave.

This is what should have happened. My "personal wishes". Why you want to keep going over this is beyond me. This is, now, totally irrelevant as it's not where we currently are.

 

[Forostar]

I can't believe this has even happened; I'm in total shock.

This was a vote for old Britain; a vote for the uneducated; a vote for xenophobia & prejudice; a vote for foreigner-mistrusters & for migrant-haters; a vote for bigots, and for racists; a vote for the narrow-minded & the inward-looking; a vote for the misinformed, and the selfish; a vote against "The Establishment" & a vote for mistrust; a negative vote against everything & for very little; a vote for years of financial uncertainty; a vote for UK constitutional chaos; a vote for English "independence". A vote for Little England.

If you voted Leave, this is sadly the company you're in. Is this what control feels like? The markets have reacted with total hysteria; Cameron is gone; Labour has totally lost its political compass; there's talk of a border poll in NI (a referendum on a united Ireland); and a second Scottish Independence Referendum is almost inevitable.

I have a partner who isn't a British National; I'm in a precarious current employment situation, without a permanent contract; I don't have kids, but I really worry about the lack of support for Leave by the next generation. This was unexpected, unnecessary; it feels politically dangerous. I'm not happy; it's feels like a terrible decision. But we will see how things develop.

This is it then. Yes we will still see how things will develop. The likely scenarios have been sketched, unlikely scenarios "may" and can still happen. Where's hope, there's unconstructive fantasies.

 

[Forostar]

Stand now? Or where I stood three years ago (your "personal wishes")? In respect to the latter:

This is what should have happened. My "personal wishes". Why you want to keep going over this is beyond me. This is, now, totally irrelevant as it's not where we currently are.

Yeah, yeah, I know you've said this. I will stop going against the grain. Meanwhile enjoy the dark scenarios people.

 

[CriedWhenBrucieLeft]

Meanwhile enjoy the dark scenarios people.

What people? You've quoted me, are you talking to me? There is no sensible discussion while you continue to make remarks like this.

 

[Forostar]

Yes you included. Or are you / is reality more optimistic than I have interpreted?
It's too late, shall we leave it at that?

This is the constructive, realistic view we all better stick too:
There will be Brexit soon. We will not have any disagreements about that. Makes for interesting discussions when we all agree. And we do not show opinions, especially not wishing-to-Remain-opinions.

It is not that it feels as if I am forbidden to talk otherwise, it is rather a lonely thing to do.

 

[Black Wizard]

is reality more optimistic than I have interpreted

It's not about optimism or pessimism. You know that. It's about reality - it is what it is - and the legal fact that it is not easy to change UK and EU law in such a short time frame. Is that so difficult to comprehend?

 

[LooseCannon]

I supported Remain, and I would support the UK going back to the people with a referendum, as I have stated before.

However, that no longer seems possible. Ironically, the UK lost control of their fate when they enacted Article 50. At this stage they can only back out if they and every member of the EU agree. Once March 29th hits, if all of those states haven't agreed, the link is severed. Yes, the heavens could align in order to do this, but I do not believe there is sufficient support in the UK parliament to allow another referendum, let alone simply scrapping Brexit. The best they can do now is beg the EU for an extension while the UK tries to get their shit in order.

Forostar, I'm on your side. I wish it was possible - the EU is far more important to the fate of the UK than I think most people believe. But I do not believe the political will exists in the UK to change course now. I commend your optimism, but urge you to look at the votes that have occurred already. The UK has had a gun put to their head by the EU and the members of Parliament refuse to listen. Why would they be able to agree on anything?

 

[Forostar]

Alright. I thought they especially could not agree on how to leave. And hoped that can result in something good.

What I comprehend is this, Black Wizard:

MPs have rejected Theresa May's Brexit deal for a second time by a majority of 149. That's a narrower defeat than the record 230 majority they inflicted on 15 January but it still leaves the question about what happens next wide open.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46393399

A further possibility is to hold another referendum.

It could have the same status as the 2016 referendum, which was legally non-binding and advisory - in common with past UK referendums. But some MPs want to hold a binding referendum where the result would automatically take effect.

Either way, a referendum can't just happen automatically. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

There would have to be a new piece of legislation to make a referendum happen and to determine the rules, such as who would be allowed to vote.

It couldn't be rushed through, because there has to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider and advise on the referendum question.

The question is then defined in the legislation.

Once the legislation has been passed, the referendum couldn't happen immediately either. There would have to be a statutory "referendum period" before the vote takes place.

Experts at University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks.

The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries).

With the government still committed to Brexit, it's very likely that a major event such as a further referendum or change of government would have to happen before such a move.

However, any delay to Brexit would certainly lead to questions about whether the ultimate destination was going to be a reversal of the 2016 referendum.

It's not totally clear what the process would be. But an act of Parliament calling for Article 50 to be revoked would probably be sufficient.

 

[srfc]

Remain is impossible. How could the UK remain now? There's too many people in the UK hell bent on Brexit that it would be in no ones interest for a new referendum, if remain won the second one it would certainly lead to violence within the UK and what good would it do the EU to keep the UK in that scenario? Sure the UK was only a semi-member to begin with, trying to stay out of most things, the euro, shengen, using kilometres etc.

The problem is caused by the remainers not accepting this. They should be working with May for a soft Brexit. If they done that then all the no deal loopers would be powerless. How many votes does the Rees-Mogg gang and the DUP have combined, probably about 50, add a few of the trots in the labour leadership to that and it adds up to a grand total of fuck all who actually want no deal but that's the most likely outcome at this stage. The vote last night changes nothing. There's only two options, deal or no deal, and the deal being offered won't change on the key issue (no border in Ireland), so therefore either Parliament will ultimately either accept this deal or it's leaving with no deal.

 

[Forostar]

Hard Brexiteers have also not helped May. There'll always be violence.

so therefore either Parliament will ultimately either accept this deal or it's leaving with no deal.

If that reflects the political will, so be it it then. Still there are other options.

 

[Perun]

I think the time for a second referendum has passed. There is no parliament majority for it, and there is no time to get one. The only way to even have a chance at getting such a majority would be by extending the Brexit deadline, but I don't expect a parliament majority for that either. The parliament is in gridlock, and I don't see anything but a No Deal Brexit happening.

Even if a miracle happens and somehow, there is both a majority for a second referendum and enough time to prepare it - here is a question referendum supporters keep dodging: What if the Leave vote wins the second referendum? What is the Plan B in that case? Will the UK go through all this again? Will they leave the day after the referendum is held? Are we just assuming that Remain wins, like we did last time?

 

[Forostar]

Yes. Set a new date, take more time, do things more properly. Go through all this again.

Leaving is no small matter.

edit: it still is not that sure that there is no majority for another referendum. It more feels like it is an unpopular thing to talk about it. Taboo. Politicians might be afraid for anger in the Brexiteer crowd.

 

[Perun]

edit: it still is not that sure, there is no majority for another referendum. It more feels like it is an unpopular thing to say. Taboo. Politicians might be afraid for anger in the Brexit crowd.

Uh... politicians keep talking about this all the time. Labour has even said it supports a second referendum. How is it a taboo?

Also, again: What if the second referendum votes Leave again?

 

[Forostar]

I answered that question. Do not dodge me please.

Yes. Set a new date, take more time, do things more properly. Go through all this again. Leaving is no small matter.

 

[Perun]

What does the "Yes" refer to?

 

[Forostar]

On this:

Will the UK go through all this again?

I say: Yes. Set a new date, take more time, do things more properly. Go through all this again. Leaving is no small matter.

On this:

Will they leave the day after the referendum is held?

I say: No.

On this:

Are we just assuming that Remain wins, like we did last time?

I say: No, but we give it a chance. It would be a a much better chance this time. A more informed chance.

 

[Perun]

I'm not sure I'm bringing my point across, but I can't think of another way to phrase it right now, so I'll better leave it for now.