As I've just written in the "Last tour?" thread, I'm currently more inclined to belive Nicko will get replaced:
I'm cca 65:35 inclined to think it is not going to be their last tour. And that whatever 'Arry had said before, they are going to replace Nicko (amicably, he'll probably stay connected to the band, like with Jukka Nevalainen and Angela Gossow) and keep on touring for as long as 'Arry is going to be able to, which - and now I'm completely pulling numbers out of my arse - might be until, say, 2030.
I don't really want that - to me, he's the second most important member, sound-wise - but I also don't think 'Arry and the boys will kill the band because of him, nor is there any rational reason why they should - apart from sentimental reasons and keeping some hardcore fans happy; most concert-goers probably won't care at all, like it or not.
Now, regarding the matter who will it be - I won't speak on behalf of 'Arry's probably predictable nepotism (
NP has had that covered on this very page) which is the most likely outcome.
However, ideally, if it were upon me, I'd try to replicate the feel Nicko gives off (and which is really important, I can't stress how big a reason for me having the first three Maiden albums as the lowest in my personal ranking is the lack of Nicko), which is very busy, juicy, with a lot of ... "feel" (this is really the worst word ever, but it describes something ineffable - it's not really swing, it's not really power, it's not really the fills, it's not really the
potential for clave (even if he doesn't play it), it's not the smoothness of the base drum foot, it's not the ear for drum sounds and which parts of the kit he uses for what; it's everything combined and more).
Honestly, the first comparable sound I have in my head comes from
two drummers - I mean, literally a
drummer duo: The Allmen used to have two drummers and the busy, interlocking rhythms always gave me a somewhat similar pleasure to Nicko. I'd say a two drummers might be able to give a somewhat dignified show of that ol' Nicko charm. But that's something that's almost 100% impossible to happen. The logistics, the general idea (unless you're a band that had it that way from beginning, to invest so many members into a fucking rhythm section...) - I won't even speculate on that.
But it's not just that; Brann Dailor has a lot of
business, but is way too idiosyncratic to be conceivable as a part of Maiden.
Bonzo would have been a great replacement, but he's dead. Collins, back in the 70s, at his height, would be also interesting to hear, but he's old and out of shape and ill (IIRC) and has tarnished his legacy thousand times over.
Purely going by feel, I'm more or less sure I'd enjoy Martin Lopez in Maiden. Not going to happen. Another one I'd be interested to hear and who has a lot of at least kinda-Nicko-ish feel is Portnoy and that is even less likely. Airto would be awesome, but he's played only jazz and fusion and he's even older than Nicko, IIRC.
(I'm kinda drubl, maybe I'll think of more drummers I'd love to hear in Maiden who are possibly even less likely to make it tomorrow)
So, in the end, we're going to have to get used to the British Lion bloke, I guess.