Official Iran Thread

And it turns out that they had absolutely no weapons, no weapons programs, nothing except for a few husks of missiles left over that still had US serial numbers on them from the Iran-Iraq war. I can't see Obama allowing them to dick him around, and I doubt either Clinton or Jeb would either.

You assume Iran will try to backdoor their way out of this - but you don't know until you try.
 
bearfan said:
Iran does not deserve the benefit of the doubt. Name one thing they have done to indicate proof that they will not continue that behavior.
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Name one thing they have done to indicate proof that they will behave like that. You said they will "continue" that behaviour, but your post revolved around Iraq and their behaviour, not Iran. They're different countries.
 
Perun said:
Name one thing they have done to indicate proof that they will behave like that. You said they will "continue" that behaviour, but your post revolved around Iraq and their behaviour, not Iran. They're different countries.
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There is plenty of actions from Iran from 1979 on to show what kind of government this is. They are a radical religious theocracy ... that people seem to want to give the benefit of the doubt for no food reason
 
bearfan said:
There is plenty of actions from Iran from 1979 on to show what kind of government this is. They are a radical religious theocracy ... that people seem to want to give the benefit of the doubt for no food reason
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You have still not produced any proof that shows that Iran would do... well, what anyway? I've been going through your latest posts with a fine comb, and I haven't actually found anything precise you expect Iran to do. Only some rather muddled allusions to Chamberlain - which would indicate you expect Iran to annex neighbouring territories and kick off a continental war, which they haven't done since 1979 - and remarks about Iraq, which is an entirely different country.
 
Short of a time machine, what proof do you want of what a nation will do?

A deal with Iran is fine .. assuming it is a good deal. The US had all the cards here along with the other countries that (finally) agreed to sanctions. Why give that away for a deal that gives Iran 24 days notice before certain inspections.

I am fully aware Iraq is a different country, but the weapons inspection regime put in place there is also an example in the past to look at what may happen in the future.

This was a deal for the sake of saying, "we made a deal" and in the end ,we have helped a regime that treats its own people (namely women) like shit and just tossed what will be a ton of money their way to continue forward. Not to mention their support of terrorism, attitude towards Israel, and they will still end up with an a-bomb (oh, I forgot, they were doing it for nuclear power)
 
bearfan said:
Short of a time machine, what proof do you want of what a nation will do?
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I want a statement that is reliably sourced and sufficiently reasoned to found a political decision on that responsibly deals with Iran and it's economy. We're talking about 78 million people here, I think they deserve more than just knee-jerk rejection.

bearfan said:
The US had all the cards here along with the other countries that (finally) agreed to sanctions. Why give that away for a deal that gives Iran 24 days notice before certain inspections.
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Why not? The foundation of this deal is trust. A little bit of that goes a long way. If the US and other countries stopped treating Iran like a bunch of rabid lunatics, chances are they won't behave that way. I know, I know, Hitler and Munich and all that, but you may want to consider that the circumstances are just a little bit different than in 1938. Namely, Iran isn't looking for lebensraum and it's still in a politically disadvantageous situation. Like, say, having American aircraft carriers at it's doorstep and knowing they will be bombed to oblivion the moment they fire a bullet.

bearfan said:
I am fully aware Iraq is a different country, but the weapons inspection regime put in place there is also an example in the past to look at what may happen in the future.
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Yes? What did the weapons inspection regime do? There were no WMD's in Iraq. News flash: Your government lied to you.

bearfan said:
This was a deal for the sake of saying, "we made a deal" and in the end ,we have helped a regime that treats its own people (namely women) like shit and just tossed what will be a ton of money their way to continue forward.
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Why don't you leave that to the Iranian people to determine? Yes, it's true that Iranian women have less rights, but it's not America's job to do anything about that. If you're so concerned with that, then how come Saudi Arabia, a country with a much worse human rights record, gets so much love (i.e. money) from the US? Why aren't you upset about that?

bearfan said:
Not to mention their support of terrorism, attitude towards Israel,
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It's true that the Hezbollah has Iranian origins and funding, and they are an expression of a more irrational side of Iranian foreign politics. But how about this: If major countries start to take Iran seriously, they might just be able to talk them out of supporting Hezbollah. It's something mightily unpopular among the Iranians, and it's a burden towards the government.

I think you're confusing cause and effect here. This "death to Israel" and "death to America" rap is there because America and other countries try hard to subdue Iran and treat it as a second-rate country. You seem to believe the sanctions will change their attitude about it - I say the sanctions are the cause for that attitude. If America stops appearing as Iran's enemy, then maybe Iran will stop being America's enemy.

It's called 'diplomacy'.
 
Proud of our foreign Minister stating how good a deal could be, during his visit in Israel (done before the deal was made later in the day). (and he says way more on the Israel-Palestina relations)
 
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Trust is built on actions .... it would have been nice to see an action from Iran beyond those in exchange. Iran's economy is shit, thanks to the sanctions. Removal of those sanctions needs to have something in exchange .. beyond what we got. It seems this could and should have been a better deal

I am not really thrilled with Saudi Arabia or really anyone in that region to be honest, the number of good actors there is pretty minimal and the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" diplomacy is more evident here than anywhere in the world right now.

WMDs iin Iraq or not is besides the point, the inspectors did not inspect because they were not allowed do ... and Iraq was in a much weaker position coming out of the Gulf War/War with Iran than Iran is today. Iran will play nice for a bit, get their money, prop up the theocracy and go back to where they have been. That is the trend with despots and there is no reason to think it will not continue here

The US/West will get cheaper gas out of this and some companies (hopefully some I am invested in) will make some money. Cool deal.
 
bearfan said:
WMDs iin Iraq or not is besides the point, the inspectors did not inspect because they were not allowed do
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But this is factually untrue. Saddam invited inspectors in 2002; those inspectors reported in Jan 2003 that there were no WMD.

If the inspectors are not allowed to inspect in Iran, the sanctions return. Assets will be frozen. Even if those assets are in country, liquidity will be frozen - a currency that is not backed by recognized foreign currency is worthless.

bearfan said:
That is the trend with despots and there is no reason to think it will not continue here
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I don't know about that. Some despots do that, some don't. Iran doesn't have a despot, they have a government that rotates fairly regularly. The Ayatollah has a hell of a lot of power, but the Ayatollah is not forever - and he seems to go along with the government on many things. Jordan has a despot.
 
It is certainly true, the inspectors in Iraq were supposed to be able to inspect anywhere they wanted whenever they wanted. Iraq prevented that on many occasions.

The deal with Iran does not even ask for that, we need to give up to 24 days notice ... how is that verification of anything. "We'll be there in a month, don't move anything"!!
 
bearfan said:
The deal with Iran does not even ask for that, we need to give up to 24 days notice ... how is that verification of anything. "We'll be there in a month, don't move anything"!!
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This is a pretty exceptionally stupid thing to say. Normally you don't say those sorts of things, but in terms of detecting atomic research, 24 days is basically calling an hour in advance.

You can't just up and move a nuclear reactor, and reactors have tell tale signs of whether or not they were used to hide weapons-grade uranium or plutonium. Centrifuges capable of enriching atomic material to a weapons grade are almost as big and complex, and just as hard to move. These aren't things that can just be put on a truck or train and hidden in the mountains - they are massive, complex machines that take a very long time to set up, break down, build, and configure.
 
Obviously they cannot tear down a reactor, part of the deal is how much those reactors are producing. Part of the end product and documentation can be moved in 24 hours. This deal is not turning reactors off, it is regulating (yeah right) production
 
bearfan said:
Part of the end product and documentation can be moved in 24 hours.
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Absolutely, but you can't just flip a switch on a reactor and have it make weapons grade material, then turn it off when you hear the UN is coming. It takes days to ramp a reactor up or down from those levels, and when you have been using it to make weapons grade material, there's signs on the reactor itself, and those signs last quite awhile. They'd get caught, then sanctions would drop, then if they didn't give it up, pretty sure Mossad would take it from them.
 
Maybe I am mistaken .. I say I am making (as permitted by the "treaty") 1KG of material that could be used in a bomb.. I make 1.5KG ... that is detectable after 24 days.
 
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