Official Iran Thread

What I don't understand is how Iran doesn't seem to understand the meaning or importance of the word "diplomacy". Something very similar happened in 1979 with the U.S. embassy and how they think this is a good idea is beyond me, its basically equivalent to declaring war on a country. I might be ignorant of the situation and if someone could explain I'd be grateful, but to my knowledge Iran is the only country that seems to have this kind of reaction any time sanctions of any kind are imposed against them. Is it because they feel like Western countries should mind their own business? Is there some kind of sub-culture that embraces invading embassy's? When sanctions were imposed on Austria back in the 90's I didn't see hordes of students invading the embassies of other EU countries...

On another note, I hope your mate is ok Perun.  :S
 
Perun said:
I still don't get what you mean by him being hypocritic. But let's leave that to be discussed between the two of you.

Well, lots of people didn't take this situation seriously (threats by Iran, and threats to attack Iran) but now things have suddenly changed.

Maybe the word hypocrite is a bit on the heavy side (and I don't mean it that negative), let me just say that I am surprised that people suddenly follow Iran more serious, now that one of theirs, or Western allies is involved more directly. Things went wrong for a long time already.

Well, I hope all people have finally woken up.
 
Natalie said:
What I don't understand is how Iran doesn't seem to understand the meaning or importance of the word "diplomacy". Something very similar happened in 1979 with the U.S. embassy and how they think this is a good idea is beyond me, its basically equivalent to declaring war on a country. I might be ignorant of the situation and if someone could explain I'd be grateful, but to my knowledge Iran is the only country that seems to have this kind of reaction any time sanctions of any kind are imposed against them. Is it because they feel like Western countries should mind their own business? Is there some kind of sub-culture that embraces invading embassy's? When sanctions were imposed on Austria back in the 90's I didn't see hordes of students invading the embassies of other EU countries...

The circumstances were different in 1979. Back then, Iran was in the middle of a revolution, and the seizure of the US embassy had a very particular background. It was not the Iranian government that instigated the seizure, but a group of fanatical students. The reason is quite simple. The government the Iranian people had just overthrown was regarded to have been imposed on them by the US government, not without reason, if I may add. The seizure was an entirely irrational heat of the moment action by a few armed militia. Whatever official Iranian authorities existed at the time, and that was basically the individual of Ayatollah Khomeini, later approved of it because the seizure had a very strong popular support. Keep in mind also, that the hostage-takers had very clear demands that Khomeini later approved of: Turning over the shah, who had been seeking asylum in western countries, and an apology for imposing him on the Iranian people. When the shah died in the middle of the crisis, the demand for the apology remained, and it still stands, incidentally.

What needs to be taken into account, and this is something people overlooked then, and still overlook now, is that at the time, there was no authoritative Iranian government to speak of. Nobody quite knew where the revolution was taking them. And indeed, government posts rotated like crazy at the time, the only face that existed was Khomeini's... and I am leaning to the point that he was more of a figurehead than an actually capable leader. That is my personal opinion gathered from bits and pieces, you won't find this point in any authoritative source on the revolution. The point I'm trying to make is that there was no "Iran" that seized the US embassy, and no "Iran" that had any capability of coordinating any sort of foreign policy at the time. As it later turned out, the Iranian government that did emerge in the course of the 1980s, needed anti-Americanism for propaganda purposes, but it needed America even more in its war against Iraq. What followed was a classic ketman policy, in the sense of saying one thing (condemning America and Israel), and doing something else (buying American and Israeli weaponry). That was, mind you, in the eighties... things have changed drastically now.

Be as it may, what stuck with many people at the time was that the seizure was a triumph of the revolution, because the seemingly invincible American juggernaught had been defeated, and all American military and diplomatic personell had been expelled from Iran. The hostage-takers of the time are now officially recognised as heroes. Today's people...don't really care.

This seizure of the British embassy is probably some sort of propaganda coup trying to rehash that glory. The more I think about it, the more I get the feeling that what the government is trying to do is build some sort of emotional bridge to those days of the revolution. Fact is, most Iranians separate the revolution itself from what came afterwards, namely the Islamic Republic. Nobody except the most stubborn monarchists in Paris and LA will say that the revolution in itself was bad - because it was initiated, and carried out, by the Iranian people as a whole (so it wasn't a coup d'état as most political upheavals in the Third World had been). What the government is probably counting on is that people remember the seizure of the US embassy as an act of the revolution, and not of the Islamic Republic.

There is something else to it. There is a very deep emotional, and hence irrational, aversion to the British in Iran. This is deeply rooted in history, because British domination over Iran, however unofficially, began in the course of the 19th century. Hence, the English (the name that is primarily being used), are something like the root of all evil in the collective Iranian mind, whatever that may be. Even the American dominance over Iran that began in the 1950s, is being linked to the English, again not without reason. It is my impression that Iranians who have witnessed the shah and the revolution, and who have been politicised in their country or by their countrymen will, whatever political side they join, blame the English on everything that is wrong in Iran. This may be the loss of their values, to the economic misery the country is enduring currently, to either the terrors the shah imposed on Iran, or the terror the Islamic Republic is imposing, whatever they see fit: It always, somehow, narrows down to the English. I'm not making this up: I have endured many a rant along those lines. One guy actually told me that the clerical comission that made Khomeini Grand Ayatollah, hence making him invulnerable politically, was appointed by the English! So maybe by seizing the British embassy, the government is somehow hoping to capitalise on these emotions. It's quite easy to blame the English at the moment, since all sanctions that have been imposed on Iran are approved both of the US and the UK.

So, to answer my own questions after some pondering, I think this is an attempt by the Iranian government at gaining some popular support, and a quite lame one at that. The idea behind it probably is that the government does not believe the British or their allies will go so far as to attack Iran over this, and when it comes to other consequences, Iran has very little left to lose. The sanctions that are pressing on Iran can hardly be raised substantially. The government just wants to tell the people it's "the English" who are to blame, and not themselves. I think that this is where the government is indeed somewhat detached from reality. The people who are in the government today are all people who witnessed the revolution, and who grew up hating the US and the UK. What they don't realise is that the majority of the population, indeed those who protest against the government on the streets, was born or grew up after the revolution, thus being significantly more friendly towards the west. The popular revolutionary fibre was burned up in the war against Iraq in the eighties, but this has somehow evaded the current ruling élite.

Forostar said:
Maybe the word hypocrite is a bit on the heavy side (and I don't mean it that negative), let me just say that I am surprised that people suddenly follow Iran more serious, now that one of theirs, or Western allies is involved more directly. Things went wrong for a long time already.

I have long accepted the fact that only few people take a similar interest in global politics the way I do. And let's be fair: Did you follow the events in Afghanistan before Dutch troops were deployed there? Are you currently following the situation in Bolivia or Armenia? It's natural for people to shift their focus from things when they don't affect them.
 
Forostar said:
Isn't this a bit hypocritical guys? When "one of us" is involved things are taken more seriously? Sorry, but I couldn't resist.


I don't think so. I am sick and tired of the United states MAKING UP THREATS (Iraq and WMDs anybody?). They are claiming Iran is a big threat because they MIGHT... just might, nothing for sure, ramp up their nuclear research and make weapons when PAKISTAN ALREADY HAS SAID WEAPONS and they've proven how trustworthy they are.

They went into Afghanistan because they were attacked. Fine, UNDERSTANDABLE, you are attacked you fight back. But not even in there for two years and they turn their OPPORTUNISTIC sights on Iraq, Hussein was murdered, pure and simple, that was no war. It was the U.S getting it's way. Now they are pulling out of Iraq and out of Afghanistan and already getting bored and they started talking about Iran.

Oh what's this? No crazy Iranians busting Western embassies prior to this Western talk of Iran being "the next threat." Never Mind Korea has been VERY vocal about their nuclear programs and their desire to make missles that can reach Moscow, maybe even London. But that's right, China is our frienemy and we can't upset them sense they essentially own this country financially and we wouldn't want them to cash their checks.

It is not about "one of us" being involved. It is about these Iranian idiots handing the West a reason on a silver platter to rev up their "they are a threat" rhetoric.
 
Perun said:
I have long accepted the fact that only few people take a similar interest in global politics the way I do. And let's be fair: Did you follow the events in Afghanistan before Dutch troops were deployed there?

Perhaps indeed not as closely as now, but I certainly have interest in areas where the Dutch are not in trouble.

Perun said:
Are you currently following the situation in Bolivia or Armenia? It's natural for people to shift their focus from things when they don't affect them.

It depends indeed on what affects us. When it comes to human rights, I follow the Syrian situation, but also Brazil, where the indians are threatened by government supported/tolerated wood destruction. Just some examples.

I also think it depends on how media distribute the news. I am quite satisfied with the Dutch media, who have lots of news correspondents in many international areas. The Belgium news and also the Polish (and probably way more countries) are more focused on their own nation (relatively seen, when you compare the amount of time used in the news program).

Onhell said:
Now they are pulling out of Iraq and out of Afghanistan and already getting bored and they started talking about Iran.

Something in the meantime has happened:

Onhell said:
Iran being "the next threat."

Never Mind Korea has been VERY vocal about their nuclear programs and their desire to make missles that can reach Moscow, maybe even London.

I don't think the political attention on Korea has weakened. In Iran things are moving now, and that's why the media focus and zoom in.

Onhell said:
It is not about "one of us" being involved. It is about these Iranian idiots handing the West a reason on a silver platter to rev up their "they are a threat" rhetoric.

Alright. I wonder what Cameron means with "serious consequences".
 
Thinking about outcome of this latest USA international crime, flying a reconnaissance drone (Lockheed-Martin RQ-170 Sentinel) over Iran. Iranian engineers said they're days away from recovering data from the drone. Americans are saying that drone was on mission inside Afghanistan, malfunction happened and it crash landed on Iranian soil. Thus, they're denying that Iranians "hacked" their gadget. However, the drone is mostly all-right with severe undercarriage damage, which would indicate a controlled crash landing, which in turn means someone had to control it. Drone doesn't contain a "black box", or log everything like a manned aircraft, because it's remotely controlled by someone somewhere and flight logging is done in-house, recording satellite relayed data from the drone. But there should be enough data logged (and encrypted) aboard the Sentinel to reveal it's flight path and mission.

So, I'm really curious to find out how United Nations will act, if it was really a covert recon/electronic warfare mission carried by USA inside Iranian airspace.
Iran is a sovereign country recognized by United Nations and it should be protected from bullshit like this.

Meanwhile in Saudi Arabia, long-time friend, business partner, and ally of United States, a woman beheaded on witchcraft allegations. With this one, Saudi Arabia executed 76 people in 2011.
 
 
A terrible number. In USA it's 43 (last updated November 18, 2011 following an execution in Idaho)

Well, system that has no social values will treat human life just as one that kills for social values.

So is Syria. But is that a reason to leave a country completely alone in all circumstances?

There are a lot of countries out there that have low human rights standards, quasi democratic government with some sort of god-given autocrat on top, you don't see us changing them, do you? It's not profitable. Iran's geopolitical position is very attractive, beside Syria and Lebanon (small countries in scale), whole Middle East including Afghanistan and Pakistan is either aligned or neutral to USA (neutral in bilateral relations, open to private investment). Iran's only remaining big thing out there.

There's a huge difference between Iran-type system and North Korean one. People have access to general knowledge in Iran. Not everyone, but those living in cities go to schools and have Internet access, etc. While North Koreans are kept in dark and brainwashed. You won't see any revolution or mass movement in North Korea, simply because people aren't capable of doing it, they don't know how to do it, nor they know why should they do it. A small percentage of them does, but repression and brutal punishment does it's thing before it can spread. Iran - yes. When majority of Iranians start calling bullshit on their government, it's going to fall. Just like Shah did.

Has it occurred to you that majority of the people down there really want to live that way? For me and for you, that might be unimaginable.
 
Zare said:
Thinking about outcome of this latest USA international crime, flying a reconnaissance drone (Lockheed-Martin RQ-170 Sentinel) over Iran. Iranian engineers said they're days away from recovering data from the drone. Americans are saying that drone was on mission inside Afghanistan, malfunction happened and it crash landed on Iranian soil. Thus, they're denying that Iranians "hacked" their gadget. However, the drone is mostly all-right with severe undercarriage damage, which would indicate a controlled crash landing, which in turn means someone had to control it. Drone doesn't contain a "black box", or log everything like a manned aircraft, because it's remotely controlled by someone somewhere and flight logging is done in-house, recording satellite relayed data from the drone. But there should be enough data logged (and encrypted) aboard the Sentinel to reveal it's flight path and mission.

I thought the United States finally admitted that they were spying on Iran...
 
I would have been disapointed if we were not spying on Iran .... I am assuming they are spying on us as well
 
Common sense, countries spy on other countries .... especially those that you go out of your way to declare as a Great Satan, etc.
 
So what kind of reaction would you expect from your government, if they caught covert Iranian military aircraft inside United States airspace?
 
I would expect pretty much what Iran has done, what the USSR did when the U2 got shot down in the 50s, what the US did when it caught Russian Spies, etc.  The US is lucky from a geographic perspective that makes it difficult for lower flying aircraft, but I have no doubt there are foreign agents on the ground and satellites from Russia, China, etc pointed at us.  I assume we do the same types of things in other countries as well

I see nothing wrong with the US gathering intel in other countries, it is expected other countries do it to us, it only becomes a problem when someone/thing is caught.
 
"Nothing will remain" of Israel if it takes military action against Tehran over its controversial nuclear program. click

.... Such warnings and references to Israel's destruction have been made before by Iranian officials. But Gen. Jafari's comments to a Tehran news conference were an unusually detailed, strongly worded and comprehensive listing of the means that Iran says it has to retaliate against a strike on its nuclear facilities .....

... Should the U.S. launch a strike, Jafari suggested that Iran could respond with missile salvos at U.S. bases in the Gulf. "The US military bases sprawled around Iran are considered a big vulnerability. Even the missile shields that they have set up, based on information we have, could only work for a few missiles but when exposed to a massive volume of missiles, the shields will lose their efficiency and will not work," he said. ...

- - - - -

This sort of contributions certainly helps us believe that the government of Iran has nothing to hide. ::)
 
I read the other day that there was a leaked invasion plan from Israel with estimated death tolls and everything, in 1 month. What I found funny was that they said they were expecting something like 500 israelis dead... seriously Israel? People should just stick to diplomacy, for world's sake
 
"Nothing will remain" of Israel if it takes military action against Tehran over its controversial nuclear program. click

.... Such warnings and references to Israel's destruction have been made before by Iranian officials. But Gen. Jafari's comments to a Tehran news conference were an unusually detailed, strongly worded and comprehensive listing of the means that Iran says it has to retaliate against a strike on its nuclear facilities .....

... Should the U.S. launch a strike, Jafari suggested that Iran could respond with missile salvos at U.S. bases in the Gulf. "The US military bases sprawled around Iran are considered a big vulnerability. Even the missile shields that they have set up, based on information we have, could only work for a few missiles but when exposed to a massive volume of missiles, the shields will lose their efficiency and will not work," he said. ...

- - - - -

This sort of contributions certainly helps us believe that the government of Iran has nothing to hide. ::)

*shrugs*

Honestly, have we heard anything substantially different in the past five, ten, twenty or thirty years?
 
The Royal Navy and USN are moving additional battle fleets to the Strait of Hormuz. I have a really bad feeling about this.
 
I have to admit that I am expecting a military strike sometime soon. It will probably happen somewhere around the US elections. My predictions have often enough been false, so I have to resort to hoping for the best and expecting the worst.
 
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