European Politics

Interestingly, I ran into a guy from Holland at work today and we chatted a bit. He was essentially complaining that his mother's pension was cut and she is complaining to him and asking for money. He said he sent his Mom some cash, but essentially said he told his family they should have moved with him to the US and not rely on the government. Interesting guy who certainly has a more American view of things and it seems he has done well here.

Did a quick google news search and came up with this. It is upsetting to see the government over promise and under deliver/live in FantasyLand that nothing bad will every happen to the economy and just keep kicking the can down the road


For years, the Dutch government and many businesses systematically underfunded their employee pension plans, relying on high investment returns to make up the shortfall.

Now, a combination of record low rates, sluggish economic growth and lives that last far longer than anyone imagined even a decade ago have resulted in yawning deficits. At the end of 2012, the funds were €30bn short of what is needed to cover promised benefits.

For the Dutch, the cutbacks are the first ever in a nation which has the second largest “defined benefit” system in Europe. But defined benefit provision, under which pensioners are guaranteed a portion of their salary for as long as they live, is unravelling under the pressure of the financial crisis and ensuing recession.

In April, under orders from the Dutch central bank, 66 of the country’s 415 pension funds started cutting their payouts. The average cut is around 2 per cent of the monthly benefit, but that figure conceals a wide range.

APB, Ms Keestra’s fund and also the country’s largest with 2.8m participants, has cut payments by 0.5 per cent, but smaller funds such as those for barbers and meat packers are cutting pension payouts by 7 per cent or more.

The loss of income to pensioners has dealt a further blow to a Dutch economy that has already shrunk 1 per cent over the past year and is suffering from record-low consumer confidence levels. Meanwhile, anger over the cuts has bolstered the fortunes of the 50Plus party, which won election to the Dutch parliament for the first time last year on promises to defend the interests of pensioners.
While the woes of Dutch pension schemes are far from unique, the Netherlands stands out because its laws allow employers to cut benefits under certain circumstances.

Dutch pension schemes are among the most tightly regulated of any in Europe or North America. By law, they must hold sufficient assets to cover 105 per cent of promised benefits, unlike those elsewhere allowed to run huge deficits. In addition, they have no leeway in setting the parameters that determine estimates of liabilities, such as expected investment returns or the number of years retirees will draw benefits.

Moreover, unlike the US, UK and many other countries, the Netherlands does not operate a pension insurance scheme to pay benefits to the underfunded schemes of insolvent employers. The fallout from the failure of a company or industry-wide scheme could be devastating, which explains why the rules are so tough.

In 2007, Dutch schemes held assets covering 152 per cent of promised benefits. But that fell to 102 per cent last year due to low interest rates – which have the effect of making liabilities balloon – and sharp falls in stock and property markets.

“The law says that accrued benefits can only be reduced if it is the last resort and if it is needed to meet their minimum requirement of 105 per cent,” says Wichert Hoekert, an Amsterdam-based consultant at actuaries Towers Watson.
 
I am not that into economy but here the latest figures:

Officially the Netherlands are in a recession for 1 year now.

The eurozone as a whole isn't anymore. According to Eurostat the economy of countries with euro grew in the last three months with 0.3 percent. The recession in the eurozone took 1,5 years. Looking at some separate countries:
France is out of the recession: growth of 0.5 percent. The German economy grew with 0.7 percent. Portugal: growth of 1.1 percent.

Netherlands and Italy: economy shrank with 0.2 percent. Spain and Zweden: it shrank with 0.1 percent. Worst: Cyprus: 1.4 percent.
 
I am not that into economy but here the latest figures:

Officially the Netherlands are in a recession for 1 year now.

The eurozone as a whole isn't anymore. According to Eurostat the economy of countries with euro grew in the last three months with 0.3 percent. The recession in the eurozone took 1,5 years. Looking at some separate countries:
France is out of the recession: growth of 0.5 percent. The German economy grew with 0.7 percent. Portugal: growth of 1.1 percent.

Netherlands and Italy: economy shrank with 0.2 percent. Spain and Zweden: it shrank with 0.1 percent. Worst: Cyprus: 1.4 percent.

I was just going to write that too. As far as i am concerned, these are quite strange news.

However, these quarterly figures should be taken cautiously. Too close to call, i guess.
 
Today in the Independent and Volkskrant, David Goodhart (British journalist, commentator, author and director of the "think tank" Demos.) and Lodewijk Asscher (Deputy Prime Minister of the Netherlands and member of the Labour Party; social democratic party) co-wrote a letter for these papers to rang the alarm bell on problems around labour migration in the EU.

They state that this topic is not urgent enough on the agenda in Brussels. They plead for new rules on free traffic in the EU.
The mass movements from east to western Europe has a disordering effect on the poor and less educated civilians in the west.
They see that the newcomers take over their jobs for way less salaries. Goal is to find a way to protect the working position of these vulnerable groups without doing injustice to the principle of non-discrimination. The suppression poisons the atmosphere and feeds xenophobia.
The EU countries should collaborate together and track down malafide temporary employment agencies.


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Asscher is from the left side of the political spectrum, so it can be quite "refreshing" to see a "socialist" (in American eyes at least) state such a tone.

I guess it basically comes down to finding a balance between: equal rights in the European Union vs protecting certain groups and preventing hate vs foreigners. The EU is especially focused on the former, and now they call for more focus on the latter, in a less aggressive tone than Euro skeptics.

Here both men discuss labour migration, a few months ago, but first Goodhart presents his (already) controversial book The British Dream. Successes and Failures of Post-war Immigration in which he says that uncontrolled immigration can undermine a welfare state (and its solidarity) and the bonds that keep a national community together: http://vimeo.com/debalie/20130513
(in English of course)

Goodhart asks left-progressives to design a progressive national story. That's food for discussion, also in the Netherlands which is unjustly tired from debates on integration. What can the Netherlands learn from ’The British Dream’, its success and failure of immigration and integration in the UK?

Personally, I am not sure what to think of it yet. I am very much to equality and can understand that people from the east want a job here. But countries have their limits so perhaps it's indeed time for the EU to take account with that.
 
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How's that? :)

You mean within the US (between states) or between USA and e.g. Mexico.

I am asking because in the EU there's (and will be) free traffic by law between states, just as freedom of religion.
 
US and Mexico ... I had three restaurant employees in three different European countries (Germany, Poland, Czech Republic) tell me they consider the Ukranians their Mexicans. A country needs to be able to account for who is living there and have some control over that. We have had that problem here with no clear answer for some time. The amnesty of 1986 clearly did not work because we are right back in the same position.

Western Europe really did not have this problem while the Iron Curtain existed.
 
The Dutch housing market is looking pretty poor ...Long article, this looks like the main part



Maureen Wachtels is trying to relax by making a Victoria sponge in her small but pristine central Rotterdam flat.

For a few moments, the whole process of sifting, mixing and baking helps take her mind off her personal plight.

Not only has she lost a well-paid and enjoyable job because of a life-threatening illness, she is also one of about a million Dutch people who suddenly find themselves in negative equity.

Maureen needs to move to sheltered accommodation as soon as possible. Yet she has only had one offer for her flat, way short of the 200,000 euros that she paid just two years ago.

But this is not just a story of over-optimistic lenders who tempted the Dutch to pile into property in the mistaken assumption that it would continue to rise in value.

The housing dam has broken. Holland is sitting on some 650bn euros in mortgage loans, with many properties worth 25% less than they were before the financial crisis.

No other EU consumers are as deeply in debt. The bursting of the Netherlands real estate bubble is now on a scale only previously seen in the United States and Spain.

'We can't sell'
Worst of all, it is endangering banks and jobs - stalling the longed-for recovery that is starting to emerge in neighbouring north European countries.

And all this in a country that until recently was seen as an exemplary economy - one that was quick to criticise others in Europe for not living within their means. The irony is not lost on Dutch citizens.

What remains one of the most open and competitive countries in the eurozone finds itself busting EU deficit limits and having to rapidly impose painful state austerity measures on its people against the clock.

For Maureen Wachtels, it is a surprising turn of events because she thought she was being frugal.

When she was in the market to buy, she borrowed some 200,000 euros, but was told she could borrow almost 500,000 euros - and many did just that.

"We were all forced to buy because at the time there didn't seem to be any property to rent. Now we are stuck with houses we can't sell," she says.

"I never expected that in just two years my asking price would come down from over 200,000 euros to 179,000.

"All I have is an offer for 153,000 euros which I have sent to the bank - but they have not responded."

She has advised her children to decline their inheritance on her death - because otherwise they could be stuck with her unexpected debts which will total some 35,000 euros.
 
Elections in Bavaria today, considered a test run for the federal elections next week. There is no doubt that the conservative CSU party will win, as in the last 60 years, but the performance of the other parties is being watched with some interest.
 
Also, this is the man nominated for chancellorship by the social democrats:

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The results from yesterday seem to make it more likely there will have to be a coalition with the social democrats
 
I've been putting my money on that for two years now. It's the only realistic prospect.
 
That does seem likely unless the Free Democrats can get 5% if they change their minds and form a coalition with Alternative for Germany if they get 5%
 
For the upcoming election, I was under the impression that if the Free Democrats get 5% there is a chance the existing coalition can continue. I read Merkel said they would not consider a coalition with Alternative for Germany

Is that not correct?
 
Oh, I misinterpreted your post. I don't know what Merkel said about the AfD, but the statements all go towards a continuation of the coalition with the FDP. However, even if they get 5%, I really doubt there will be a majority for such a coalition. The AfD will probably/hopefully not get more than 3% according to all current polls.
 
I suppose like any election turnout is the key ... I would assume parties like AfD can occasionally do well with motivated voters and if voters for other parties show up in lesser numbers than normal
 
The FDP is an old established party with a firm base - small, but firm. The AfD is a protest party, so how good they do is dependent on how loud they are. But in general, most analysts say that this week is going to bring the decision, and some of the previous elections had quite surprising results. So I'm not going to predict anything.
 
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