European Politics

I think when Putin's forces reach Kiev and displace the goverment, he will be willing to negotiate again.

However, the west might not be at that point and war will go on.
 
Well, there wouldn't really be any concessions to make at that point. The wolf is already feasting.
 
Yax said:
I read that Putin issued warning to Russia's people not to participate in any anti war protests. We all know what happened the last time there were large protests is Moscow.

Edit: AFP claims 700 protesters have been arrested in Russia.
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Over 1,000 I believe.
 
Yax said:
Well, there wouldn't really be any concessions to make at that point. The wolf is already feasting.
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If he has Kiev, he can negotiate with the west then, while holding Kiev hostage. Also, Russian businessmen started to question Putin, since the Russian stock marked crashed. The only thing he said was that "there was no other choice".

If this doesn't stop soon, most of the companies might migrate abroad.
 
matic22 said:
If this doesn't stop soon, most of the companies might migrate abroad.
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They should. But Putin might not let them. He's a gangster and tzar crossover, why would he let them walk away. But I meant that there would be next to zero reason for the west to negotiate, that would only embolden him; Putin would rather not become a pariah though if it can be avoided, so he could throw in a few bandaids, but I guess that's about it.
 
matic22 said:
I think when Putin's forces reach Kiev and displace the goverment, he will be willing to negotiate again.

However, the west might not be at that point and war will go on.
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So, what is there to negotiate about between Russia and NATO? Ukraine isn't part of NATO. It's the victim of a predatory empire, but it's non-aligned. Tell me, pray, what negotiations are supposed to be about.
 
European military security order (again)? NATO expansion is threatening the tzar's Soviet Union ambition.
 
Perun said:
So, what is there to negotiate about between Russia and NATO? Ukraine isn't part of NATO. It's the victim of a predatory empire, but it's non-aligned. Tell me, pray, what negotiations are supposed to be about.
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Not NATO. Ukraine.

There is nothing to negotiate with NATO. I think what Putin wants is that while holding Kiev hostage, Ukraine might bend over and give him what he wants (Donetsk, Lugansk, new goverment and deal that Ukraine will never join NATO). But that might last for months and we could see Sarajevo part 2. Again, it'll probably be the question of who gives up first.
 
On a related note, Sweden's weapons export policy is insane. It makes no distinction between victim and aggressor. Ship the anti tanks weapons to Ukraine. Pronto. Why the hell would anybody help Sweden militarily (which our entire security doctrine is based upon) with our bizarre and contradictory neutrality policy? NATO membership- Now. Change the damn export policy, and not soon, but now, like Ukraine is asking us.
 
LooseCannon said:
Negotiations at the barrel of a gun aren't negotiations, they're demands.
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True. I wrote it like this because I was reading that Lavrov said "we are still prepaired to negotiate, blah blah blah".

In reality it's more like... When we reach and take Kiev via Chernobyl, we will express our demands. Then we will hold Kiev until most of our demands are met.
 
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Yax said:
On a related note, Sweden's weapons export policy is insane. It makes no distinction between victim and aggressor. Ship the anti tanks weapons to Ukraine. Pronto. Why the hell would anybody help Sweden militarily (which our entire security doctrine is based upon) with our bizarre and contradictory neutrality policy? NATO membership- Now. Change the damn export policy, and not soon, but now, like Ukraine is asking us.
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Well, write the government and demand it. If ever there was a time to join NATO, it's now, when Putin is unlikely to be able to project force to stop it.
 
Yax said:
Good US sanctions coming all along, but they can do more (and Biden said they would be willing). Why not add all of the Duma members to the personal sanctions list as well, just like in that link somebody posted earlier, suggested?
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I think we should be careful to not cross a certain line with sanctions. I'm not against them, but the Russian stock market has already crashed 50 %. And what's more, when Swift payments were discussed in context of sanctions against Russia in 2014, Putin said that for him that would signify a declaration of war against Russia. And we don't want a hot exchange between two nuclear superpowers.
There's also been talk about trying to "re-activate" Angela Merkel, as apparently she is one of the very few politicians Putin respects, because she speaks Russian and whatnot.
 
LooseCannon said:
That would be assuming the United States can't do two things at once. Pretty sure it can.
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Oh, it certainly can. But whether Xi recognizes that or not is an open question. Our non-response when Hong Kong’s freedoms were snuffed out a couple decades early may have emboldened him.
 
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