European Politics

Randalf said:
If this is all, or even partly true, I think this very well underlines how Putin and co. lives in a completely different world with a very different state of mind than most.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1490230129229848578

As mentioned: no-one - absolutely no-one - in Europe threatens Russia. Russia threatens Europe. European countries do not seek to invade and annex areas from other, sovereign nations. Russia does, even if not directly. Russia is constantly meddling with other countries' affairs and who knows, maybe there will be more hybrid operations targeted to their neighbors if the situation escalates further.

Even here in Finland, it's Russian pro-Putin organizations that are supporting some (pathetic, but dangerous nonetheless) groups and feeding dispute and strife. And of course the "web-brigades" are another thing...

Oh well, most of this has been talked here already. But this is just very frustrating. Too bad humankind hasn't learned that much from the past wars. Hopefully the next generation will - finally - be wiser. :)
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Of course this is not real. Beginning with the fact that there is no such thing as an "All-Russian Officer's Assembly."
 
Perun said:
Of course this is not real. Beginning with the fact that there is no such thing as an "All-Russian Officer's Assembly."
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Yeah, and it's probably quite unlikely for such thing to get this public in the first place - at least so quickly. And of course it seems quite fake and whatever, but nonetheless, it's disturbing how messy and cloudy this all has become all over (social or otherwise) media platforms. There's widespread and probably intended confusement around.

Still, at this point it seems more and more unlikely that Russia will just fall back and rely on diplomacy. It would make them (from their perspective, anyway) seem too "weak" and make them laughable, given the amount of pressure and threats recently. They must do something and given that Putin is indeed playing his own games in his own world, we'll probably see some worrying escalation soon enough.

How extensive... well that is the question.
 
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Randalf said:
If this is all, or even partly true, I think this very well underlines how Putin and co. lives in a completely different world with a very different state of mind than most.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1490230129229848578

As mentioned: no-one - absolutely no-one - in Europe threatens Russia. Russia threatens Europe. European countries do not seek to invade and annex areas from other, sovereign nations. Russia does, even if not directly. Russia is constantly meddling with other countries' affairs and who knows, maybe there will be more hybrid operations targeted to their neighbors if the situation escalates further.

Even here in Finland, it's Russian pro-Putin organizations that are supporting some (pathetic, but dangerous nonetheless) groups and feeding dispute and strife. And of course the "web-brigades" are another thing...

Oh well, most of this has been talked here already. But this is just very frustrating. Too bad humankind hasn't learned that much from the past wars. Hopefully the next generation will - finally - be wiser. :)
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This letter is original, not fake, I checked russian sources. I'am fluent in Russian. Dear Westerners, Guys, please don't think about Putin as a 'normal' democratic leader. Putin is a head chef of military mafia. Along with his KGB colleagues, he usurped governance of Russia for many years. Russia as a country is indeed in systemic crisis. They have nothing to offer for Russia's people, except, Russia as a 'Castle under Siege' paradigm. They want to cause destruction, because cannot create a better life. Russia is a corrupted country as hell. And Putin is one crazy mother*ucker with Tzar ambitions. Just think for a minute, he is blackmailing sovereign country with war to abandon it's goals.
 
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If russian military people starting to think 'Putin is a problem', there's a good chance, the problem will be 'solved' from the inside :dead:
 
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Night Prowler said:
Why does Russia want to invade Ukraine?
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They don't.

They don't want Ukraine per.se. they want uninterrupted Black Sea access which they had for last 150 years or so.

They would "leave Ukraine alone" (from their perspective) if their new ownership of Crimea gets legitimized and Russia stops having sanctions because of it.

At one point due to reasons, valid or invalid, Russia came to expect they'll be ditched from having naval bases under concession on Crimea.

Since Soviet authorities who gave Crimea to Ukraine did not expect Soviet Union ever breaking down, the question of hosting the warm water part of the fleet was never asked. When Russian and Ukrainian SFR sat down and broke Soviet Union into independent countries, this was solidified. Crimea stays Ukrainian, the referendum in Crimea gets ignored, Russians stay in the military bases.

This is part of the centuries old thing, (The Trooper).

The Donbass/Luhkansk are buffers where Russia decided to implement a scorched earth policy to move the conflict away from Crimean border, to control rest of infrastructure that's connecting Crimea's natural land bridge to the peninsula.

The "get the NATO off our borders thing" is nice wishful thinking, yes they would gladly have situation where NATO can't monitor their stuff that's not hidden deep in landmass, but it's never been so and they've always had a bad spot when it comes to snooping.
 
So are you saying all this is basically to have international approval for the annexation of Crimea? Could Luhansk and Donezk be bargaining chips in this thing too?
 
Perun said:
So are you saying all this is basically to have international approval for the annexation of Crimea? Could Luhansk and Donezk be bargaining chips in this thing too?
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100%.

btw Russia can't expand, they're already in a huge trouble due to Crimea, where they had majority approval, I'm not talking democracy, but the fact they didn't have to quell some grassroots movement or resistance.

They took it with least effort and it got them downfall of GDP due to losing international renome, and a burden of investment. Like walking to a bank and taking a loan, at the same moment your paycheck gets automatically cut in half.

Suppose that tomorrow they genocide and / or expel the entire Ukrainian population in those eastern areas and areas adjacent to them in Ukrainian control that Ukraine wouldn't be able to defend(*). The state of their economy would not be able to invest into those areas e.g. they wouldn't ever be able to pay them off, even if they got no further sanctions. In reality, every new meter of Russian control on the European east will have to be paid by diminishing GDP due to sanctions and shut off from international trade, and Russians will have to pay an upkeep for that 1 meter. Turning that into a profit is a mission impossible.

(*) they would. Unless Russia starts throwing their most modern conventional weapons at them. Russia would be giving up a stockpile earned in last 15 years. Just a loss of a fighter squadron on the ground due to artillery would be such a blow to their military-industrial complex that it's simply not worth it. Nobody in their upper army echelons wants to lose tools that are parts of strategic capability against foe such as U.S. to some local conflict. Also bear in mind that there are millions of potential Russian citizens that could perform acts of sabotage.
 
Remarkable Zelensky Munich speech. Слава Україні!
And Жыве Беларусь!
And a mighty F. O. A. D. to some other peeps.
 
Dr. Eddies Wingman said:
... and basically written off Ukraine's legitimacy as a country, labeling the country more or less a mistake made by Lenin.
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Yeah, and not to draw too much attention anywhere else than where it should be right now, guess which country also got recognized by Lenin around the same time... oh yes, Finland.

The NATO door has been open for us a long time now. For some reason our politicians have been unbelievably hesitant with it. I wonder, will it be open anymore... say, on tomorrow?

Also, relevant as ever:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468206078940823554
 
The narrative Putin seems to promote is that the Tsar's empire is the proper extent of Moscow's rule. That anything that happened after the revolution in 1917 was illegitimate if it defined something as "not Russia" which had previously been under Russian rule.

I think the Baltic countries are quite happy they aren't in Ukraine's shoes now.
 
Ideologically, Russia claims Kiev because it was the origin point of the first Russian state.
Realistically, and I say this as a professional historian, if this is what comes out of people "studying" history, I wish they wouldn't do it.
 
He's gone completely mad/lying and manipulating. His history lesson in many places is inaccurate. We, Lithuanians, are certainly happy to be in EU and NATO.
After today's events, If Western countries won't impose unbearable sanctions to Russia, Putin will go for more. He wants to weaken and destroy Ukraine. He can't let Ukraine to become a thriving country. If so, his stupid nation will raise questions. Russian Facebook segment is happy right now. There's no big demonstrations in Russian cities, against the war. Mysterious Russian Soul is DEAD.
 
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