European Politics

CriedWhenBrucieLeft said:
Indeed. The whole of the UK (inc. Scotland) will probably be in some sort of transition arrangement after the two-year Brexit process has passed anyway. Scotland would be in a similar position, with the UK, if it voted for independence; again, regardless of the timing of a vote. Either of these outcomes are going to start a process that will take years to run. Could Scotland use that period to negotiate entry to the EU? I don't know. I see no compelling reason why it couldn't though.
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the problem for Scotland is they are not really in control of that ... the EU (or some members could insist) might not be able to negotiate until it officially leaves the UK. I think that was the position that was taken after Brexit.

But under the best circumstances, Scotland needs to negotiate an exit with the UK, negotiate and in with the EU .. and depending on what that gap is .. what do they do for basic things (like currency) in the meantime. My understanding is (and I could be wrong) they would not exactly be trying to enter the EU as an economic super power

Scotland can vote how it wants, but they would be negotiating from a position of weakness really on both ends of the equation. But really I think they will end up worse off than staying in the UK. But I don't live there, so not really my problem
 
It depends on what kind of gap there is between voting for independence and independence. There's no prescribed timetable for that. Scotland could easily have transitional arrangements (regardless of any wish to be or not be in the EU) in place with the UK (to use Sterling for example) for several years after independence; which would be several years removed again from the vote for independence. But it would require a lot of goodwill towards Scotland from the EU, to facilitate Scotland simply stepping back into the EU after being out for, say, five years. Like you, I see no real evidence that that would necessarily be forthcoming. Scotland would certainly be in a unique position though; of being a country that had only just recently exited the EU wanting back in, in respect to being compliant with EU rules etc.
Forostar said:
You don't think being in the EU is better than being out of it? Economically?
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Being out isn't looking particularly appealing at present.
 
CriedWhenBrucieLeft said:
It depends on what kind of gap there is between voting for independence and independence. There's no prescribed timetable for that. Scotland could easily have transitional arrangements (regardless of any wish to be or not be in the EU) in place with the UK (to use Sterling for example) for several years after independence; which would be several years removed again from the vote for independence. But it would require a lot of goodwill towards Scotland from the EU, to facilitate Scotland simply stepping back into the EU after being out for, say, five years. Like you, I see no real evidence that that would necessarily be forthcoming. Scotland would certainly be in a unique position though; of being a country that has only just recently exited the EU wanting back in, in respect to being compliant with EU rules etc.
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That might be dead on .. but again it goes back to who knows. Really the main point I was trying to make is that it would be foolish for anyone to think "We leave the UK, we quickly join the EU" .. that probably will not happen .. and even joining the EU at all is not a sure thing ,probable at some point though .. but again at what point and under what circumstances.

Depending on how Scotland looks after a transition, there might not be a ton of appetite to bring in a country that would be a net deficit to the EU and you still will have some countries not wanting to set a precedent for "leave the home country and you have a place here" .. both of which could make it very difficult.

I think anyone wanting to vote yes should consider that there is a decent potential of a quite long and painful transition that might not have a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow (yeah .. I know .. that is the Irish, but still)
 
I think there should be enough common sense in EU countries to realize why Scotland left. Scotland did not leave. They were kicked out by angry Englishmen who have no clue about the consequences. It would be fair to take Scotland back in. Spain is not leaving the EU and no one else is, soon.

Even if it will take hard and long, Scotland will take their own path, unleashed in the west.
 
Spain is not leaving the EU .. the question is does Spain want a breakaway country to join the EU at all or easily ... and a lot depends on who is in control of Spain at the time. Again nothing is a sure thing if they leave .. they could end up in a worse position .. they could end up in a better position ... but it is really a crap shoot .. because it is really a 50-50 proposition at best
 
I don't think it's a good idea to have new referendums if the mess of previous ones isn't sorted out yet. There should be a general moratorium on referendums for two or three years. Worldwide.
 
Perun said:
I don't think it's a good idea to have new referendums if the mess of previous ones isn't sorted out yet. There should be a general moratorium on referendums for two or three years. Worldwide.
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Agree .. it would make sense to let Brexit work itself out first ... hard to vote for leaving something when you do not know what that something will be
 
Forostar said:
They were kicked out by angry Englishmen who have no clue about the consequences
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Isn't that a rather arrogant thing to say? Sure, it must apply to some of the leave voters - but surely not all of them, or even the majority of them? I'm sure most voters on both sides made their choice based on a mix of proper information, emotions (herein including their personal degree of susceptibility to campaigning) and which values they found most important. You can't say people are stupid just because they voted differently than you would have voted, had you been British.

Of course you have voters who make their decision without thinking it over well. But you find those in every political camp. People who vote for a particular party because they have always done so, or because they like their slogan.

On Scotland holding another referendum on FREEDOM!!! in the midst of the Brexit turmoil - I agree with Perun and Bearfan that it is a bad idea to do that now. If such a referendum is to be held, Scottish voters need to know what the consequences are. Not just the consequences of leaving, but the consequence of staying. Breaking up the UK is a big decision - so big that the consequences of Brexit need to be clear first.
 
Dr. Eddies Wingman said:
Isn't that a rather arrogant thing to say? Sure, it must apply to some of the leave voters - but surely not all of them, or even the majority of them? I'm sure most voters on both sides made their choice based on a mix of proper information, emotions (herein including their personal degree of susceptibility to campaigning) and which values they found most important. You can't say people are stupid just because they voted differently than you would have voted, had you been British.
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Proper information? You're kidding me right? The blatant lies that were spread in the leave campaign have blinded people for the negative consequences. The emotions were ten times as big a factor.

'Right to choose'
Ms Sturgeon said: "My argument is simply this: when the nature of the change that is made inevitable by Brexit becomes clear, that change should not be imposed upon us, we should have the right to decide the nature of that change.

"The people of Scotland should have the right to choose between Brexit - possibly a very hard Brexit - or becoming an independent country, able to chart our own course and create a true partnership of equals across these islands."

---

Scotland does not want to be dragged out of the EU by their bigger and angrier brother. Or at least it does want to suffer a negative outlook without having an own say in the matter.

More than some (many!) fell for the Trumpish leave campaign that was held.
 
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Forostar said:
Proper information? You're kidding me right?
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You're misreading me. By no means did I mean that all the information that motivated people to vote for Brexit, was proper. I am aware that there was a lot of propaganda, part of the Leave campaign was outright disgraceful.

However, your statement about "angry Englishmen voting Scotland out of the EU" implies that most, if not all, Leave voters were uninformed and fell for propaganda. I think that is a very simplistic way of viewing the election. You disregard other motivations. Do you believe that all who voted Remain made a well informed choice? That few or none just voted Remain because it felt safer to keep things as they were?

My point is, don't assume you know the reason why everyone who voted differently than you would, did so. In particular, don't assume they all did it for the worst reason you can think of.

@jazz from hell - the opinion on Brexit here more or less follows the lines of those who are in favour of Norwegian membership. Those who would prefer us to join, see Brexit as a bad thing, those who would prefer to keep us out (and in particular those who want to scrap the EEC as well) view it positively. Those who aren't decided on Norwegian membership mostly lean towards viewing it negatively.
 
Perun said:
@CriedWhenBrucieLeft , how would you estimate the influence of English/Non-Scottish UK companies on the Scottish labour market?
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Pretty influential. The majority of the business community was against independence during campaigning; not too dissimilar to the stance business took during the Brexit campaign. To be fair, anyone with their economic hat on was against independence.
 
Dr. Eddies Wingman said:
You're misreading me.
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And you are doing a great job yourself.
Dr. Eddies Wingman said:
By no means did I mean that all the information that motivated people to vote for Brexit, was proper. I am aware that there was a lot of propaganda, part of the Leave campaign was outright disgraceful.

However, your statement about "angry Englishmen voting Scotland out of the EU" implies that most, if not all, Leave voters were uninformed and fell for propaganda.
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It does not per se. You read out of it what you want to. I think that a large part fell for dumb arguments, perhaps not most (although I seriously do not rule it out), but enough to easily pull in the win. Just like Trump managed. It happens these days. Populist agendas can overrule wisdom and rational arguments.
Dr. Eddies Wingman said:
I think that is a very simplistic way of viewing the election. You disregard other motivations. Do you believe that all who voted Remain made a well informed choice?
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More so did. I assume that but I am truly convinced that their arguments were more rational and that their campaign was filled less with stupidity.
My view is less simplistic than the motivations to leave. I haven't heard you about assumptions when the campaign was on. I am a critical person and I voice my opinion on matters that move me. I do speak out about international matters. I do not have to be silent when something happens beyond the borders. I can be emotional, I can sound respectless, but when that happens, it's often caused by something. I am not an influential politician or business man so do not worry.
Dr. Eddies Wingman said:
My point is, don't assume you know the reason why everyone who voted differently than you would, did so. In particular, don't assume they all did it for the worst reason you can think of.
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I am not thinking all did, but I disagree or oppose most motivations.

Even if I did so, what does it mean to you? What irritates you, or what offends or scares you when I think and speak about angry Englishmen? I find the Brexit a backwards and selfish, asocial thing to do. Only a large wave of misplaced anger can have contributed significantly to a decision like that.

It is easy to confront me with "you cannot know" or "do not assume" but why don't you just admit that you do not like what I say. Yes, that was another assumption.
Sorry but I let my mind speak, this is how I look at it. I have not heard great rational arguments that convince me that it's good to leave. However great the quantity, a large group of angry Englishmen have led to Brexit and Scotland seeks a way to deal with it the way they choose.
 
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bearfan said:
It is easy with
People who follow my opinion:"Great people!"
People who don't "evil and/or stupid"
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Yes, especially lots of Americans are stupid. And also Turkish and Polish people these days. Countless of dumb nationalists and ignorant idiots. Just look at all the governments they have chosen. It takes no rocket science to notice how narrowminded and xenophobic many of these people behave.
 
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