UK Politics

[CriedWhenBrucieLeft]

As I said previously, all of this should and could have been done earlier; talking options through properly, exploring all alternatives, concensus, etc. But it appears politically to be too late for that. None of that is likely with May at the helm.

 

[Black Wizard]

Remain is impossible. How could the UK remain now?

I agree to a certain extent. The cat is out of the bag and the UK/EU relationship will be damaged even more than it is if we leave without a deal or decide to stay. In the case of the latter I don't see the EU trusting future UK governments and parliaments for quite some time as it will always be suspicious of what the UK will do next. If the UK decides to stay after all then it will be isolated within the EU.

Also, again: What if the second referendum votes Leave again?

I answered that question. Do not dodge me please.

Did you?


With regards to the EU requiring a good reason for the exiting process to be delayed, the only reason a long delay would be accepted would be for a General Election or a referendum. There's no way that Theresa May can allow the EU to dictate those terms as it's just ammunition for hard Brexit fans. If we have another referendum the anti-EU brigade will say "the EU are making us do this, how dare they, this proves that it is dictating out laws, we should leave with no deal" and we still vote to leave.

The parliament is in gridlock, and I don't see anything but a No Deal Brexit happening.

The only way to break that gridlock is to have a General Election (which I am not keen on). Theresa May has lost control of the exiting process, the government, the cabinet and the Conservative Party so a General Election is almost inevitable sometime this year. There is no guarantee that will solve anything though as we could end up with a new Conservative PM who supports Hard Brexit, a hung parliament that can't agree on anything, and the same MPs give-or-take 20 who haven't changed their minds.

 

[Forostar]

Another basis for getting out of gridlock, more optimism:

= = =
European Council President Donald Tusk has said he will appeal to EU leaders "to be open to a long extension" of the Brexit deadline, if the UK needs to rethink its strategy and get consensus.

His intervention came as UK MPs were set to vote on seeking to postpone the 29 March deadline to 30 June.
EU leaders meet in Brussels on 21 March and they would have the final say.
Prime Minister Theresa May has said that if her Brexit deal is not approved a longer extension may be necessary.
After two resounding defeats in the House of Commons, she will make another attempt to push her Withdrawal Agreement with the EU through next week.
All 27 other EU nations would have to agree to an extension, and Mr Tusk, who is the bloc's summit chairman, will hold talks with several leaders ahead of next week's Brussels meeting.
While European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has insisted that any postponement "should be complete before the European elections" at the end of May, Mr Tusk made clear a longer delay was on the cards.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47557216
= = =

More in the article can be found on some individual nations looking at this:

Germany losing faith but keen to help...
France will demand tough conditions...
Poland says anything but No Deal...
Netherlands waits and hopes for the best...

Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok has told the BBC his country would look "with benevolence" at any request to extend Article 50. But "without a clear goal an extension won't solve anything", he warned.
The mantra "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" underpins the Dutch approach, and Mr Blok was at an event showcasing the government's preparations for a no-deal exit.
"I'm looking forward to any solution that will solve the problem, but that has to come from London now."
The Dutch never wanted the UK to leave the EU but respected its choice. Now they view any possible extension a little like tearing off a sticking plaster. Ideally it should be done rapidly to get the pain over with.
"We're living in the reality Brexit has dealt us", says foreign trade minister Sigrid Kaag, gesturing towards a stream of trucks trundling on to a ferry bound for the UK port of Felixstowe.
"(The Netherlands) is your natural gateway to Europe. With a stable government. We're not sitting idle, we're not panicking, we're getting ready for any eventuality."

Italy says: 'Tell us what you want'...

 

[LooseCannon]

The problem is that the UK does not know what they want. I agree that there's no political capacity for a new referendum. The Conservatives would need to be the ones tabling the motion, and that's not going to happen anytime soon. Labour might want it, but Labour doesn't get a say in the current Parliamentary situation.

It seems likely that the EU will agree to an extension this time. It seems unlikely that the current Parliament will ever support something similar to the May deal. Eventually one of those two factors will have to change.

A general election will need to be called before a second referendum is palatable - with the caveat that Labour would have to run on a second referendum platform.

I think it's slightly more likely that May cancels Brexit on her own and takes the bullet. I do not consider this option to be at all likely.

 

[Perun]

With regards to the EU requiring a good reason for the exiting process to be delayed, the only reason a long delay would be accepted would be for a General Election or a referendum. There's no way that Theresa May can allow the EU to dictate those terms as it's just ammunition for hard Brexit fans. If we have another referendum the anti-EU brigade will say "the EU are making us do this, how dare they, this proves that it is dictating out laws, we should leave with no deal" and we still vote to leave.

It seems likely that the EU will agree to an extension this time. It seems unlikely that the current Parliament will ever support something similar to the May deal. Eventually one of those two factors will have to change.

To be fair, I don't see a reason why any EU members would object to a delay. It really makes no difference, and I honestly don't think that sort of grudge against the UK exists. I'm wondering more about what the point would be. Most media I read about this agree that a delay until the EU elections is too short to get anything done, and that's not even getting into what it is the UK wants to get done. There's no point in trying to re-negotiate the deal, the time would be too short for a referendum cycle, so what's the point? It's just going to prolong the misery. Just pull the plug already.

The only way to break that gridlock is to have a General Election (which I am not keen on). Theresa May has lost control of the exiting process, the government, the cabinet and the Conservative Party so a General Election is almost inevitable sometime this year. There is no guarantee that will solve anything though as we could end up with a new Conservative PM who supports Hard Brexit, a hung parliament that can't agree on anything, and the same MPs give-or-take 20 who haven't changed their minds.

The problem is that the UK does not know what they want. I agree that there's no political capacity for a new referendum. The Conservatives would need to be the ones tabling the motion, and that's not going to happen anytime soon. Labour might want it, but Labour doesn't get a say in the current Parliamentary situation.
...
A general election will need to be called before a second referendum is palatable - with the caveat that Labour would have to run on a second referendum platform.

Running on a referendum platform would be very risky. I understand it would be helpful to actually have opposing political stances in an election, but doesn't it basically risk both major parties splitting? There are parts of Labour who want Brexit and part of the Conservatives who don't want it. Rather than providing new clarity and strong factions, I really only see it deepening the crisis the parties are in.

I think it's slightly more likely that May cancels Brexit on her own and takes the bullet. I do not consider this option to be at all likely.

There's a small kernel in me that has always wanted to believe that this has really been May's strategy all along: To take charge of Brexit, expose what a terrible idea it was and how incapable the political establishment is of handling it, and then, in the nick of time, go before the nation and say, "You little shits. You fucked up the referendum, handed over control to a bunch of muppets and made our glorious nation look like a kindergarten. We're blowing this off, no Brexit for you!" Wishful thinking, I know... but I do agree that May sacrificing herself this way is actually the only way to avoid a No Deal Brexit now. Which basically means there will be a No Deal Brexit.

 

[bearfan]

I really do not see the point of a delay unless there is a realistic chance something will change ... otherwise you are just in the same spot X months later.

 

[LooseCannon]

I agree that I don't see the point of a delay, but politicians love to delay when they can't get what they want. That is why I believe a delay is likely.

 

[Onhell]

Most of the articles I've read regardless of source (the Guardian, Bloomberg, Washington Post, Time, etc.) Basically say May is fucked, UK is fucked and a remain option would be a fucking miracle.

Is the situation that dire?

 

[Black Wizard]

Is the situation that dire?

Yes.

 

[LooseCannon]

Yeah, pretty much. May can't get the deal done, so it's definitely the end of her career. UK will be in for a lot of hardship if there's a no deal Brexit. And a way to remain now would require a majority-Brexit Parliament to suddenly not be a majority-Brexit Parliament.

 

[Perun]

I agree that I don't see the point of a delay, but politicians love to delay when they can't get what they want. That is why I believe a delay is likely.

There is the possibility that this will get delayed indefinitely, sort of like Catalan Independence.

 

[LooseCannon]

There is the possibility that this will get delayed indefinitely, sort of like Catalan Independence.

That's what I see is the more likely option than anything - or at least until a General Election in the UK changes the government.

 

[bearfan]

That's what I see is the more likely option than anything - or at least until a General Election in the UK changes the government.

Of course the problem there is what happens if/when you end up with essentially the same parliament .. along the same lines of what happens if/when there is a second referendum and the same result occurs. It seems to me that having this hanging over the economy might be worse than leaving (deal or no) ... and no deal would really force a series of smaller deals out of necessity (for both the EU/UK) rather than trying to agree on a grand deal to cover everything

 

[Perun]

That's what I see is the more likely option than anything - or at least until a General Election in the UK changes the government.

Some EU states may have a problem with this, however. There will be EU parliament elections in May, and having the UK take part in them with one foot out is not something a lot of people are looking forward to. So it's well likely the EU won't let the UK do that.

 

[Dmac80]

Reading through the thread I can't help but wonder why those from the UK here 1)feel an un-elected bureaucracy of elites in Brussels is better at running your country than your own people are, and 2)if those who voted to reclaim their country are such racist, xenophobic morons, then maybe you ought to move on from supporting Iron Maiden, seeing as Bruce himself has endorsed Brexit?

Borderless chaos is lunacy, not order and the rule of law. Europe is in deep trouble and it isn't "far right" to say so. Stop being brainwashed by your media and start questioning the status quo.

 

[LooseCannon]

Before others respond, let me take a whack at this one.

feel an un-elected bureaucracy of elites in Brussels is better at running your country than your own people are

The EU isn't an unelected bureaucracy. It's absolutely a bureaucracy but there are elections that determine the course of events. There's the EU Parliament, and the EU leadership is appointed by the elected governments of the day from the member states. That's good enough for the House of Lords, and it's good enough for the EU.

if those who voted to reclaim their country are such racist, xenophobic morons

I don't believe anyone suggested that every person who voted Leave was a racist, xenophobic moron. There are certainly some racists who voted leave. I'd hazard that the vast majority of xenophobes voted Leave. And probably a lot of idiots voted for Leave too. But lots of smart, educated people voted Leave - people whom many others happen to disagree with. There was a lot of racist and xenophobic propaganda that surrounded the Brexit referendum, mind you.

maybe you ought to move on from supporting Iron Maiden, seeing as Bruce himself has endorsed Brexit?

Lovely strawman you have here. You can enjoy the music without approving of the political views of the constituent members. I saw Iced Earth last year and Jon Schaffer is anathema to literally everything I stand for.

Borderless chaos is lunacy, not order and the rule of law.

[citation needed]

Europe is in deep trouble and it isn't "far right" to say so.

I hardly think anyone disagrees that the current state of Europe is in trouble. I am greatly concerned with the way Europe is evolving, as are many others, none of whom I would call far right. However, I would suggest that the far right is causing the trouble in Europe.

My opposition to Brexit, as a non-British person (yet a proud member of the Commonwealth) is simple: the EU allows the UK to matter. Without the EU, the UK becomes a much smaller percentage. The Empire is gone and the Commonwealth is independent; the UK can never be what it once was, and to pine for that is foolish. A strong Europe with the UK as a leader would have been a preferable option. But it seems that nobody is interested in that. They are only interested in what divides us, rather than what could unite us.

 

[Black Wizard]

@LooseCannon has said everything that needs to be said on that. No further response required.

Lovely strawman you have here. You can enjoy the music without approving of the political views of the constituent members. I saw Iced Earth last year and Jon Schaffer is anathema to literally everything I stand for.

Agreed. I've heard people moaning about having to go to Wetherspoons pubs because the owner is a Brexit supporter. It gets to a point where this is just petty.

 

[LooseCannon]

Agreed. I've heard people moaning about having to go to Wetherspoons pubs because the owner is a Brexit supporter. It gets to a point where this is just petty.

Boycotts over a difference in opinion are wrong.

If Bruce came out as a rampant racist who believes that Brexit must occur to save the UK from hordes of Poles and brown people pouring into Europe, then I'd have to take another look at what I enjoy and why.

 

[bearfan]

Boycotts over a difference in opinion are wrong.

Could not agree more, there is some line for sure ... but I will not go to your establishment because I disagree with you is stupid beyond belief. Only reason I have ever boycotted an eatery (for example) is because I did not like their food or service .. because really that is all I am looking for there, food .. not validation

 

[srfc]

Reading through the thread I can't help but wonder why those from the UK here 1)feel an un-elected bureaucracy of elites in Brussels is better at running your country than your own people are, and 2)if those who voted to reclaim their country are such racist, xenophobic morons, then maybe you ought to move on from supporting Iron Maiden, seeing as Bruce himself has endorsed Brexit?

Borderless chaos is lunacy, not order and the rule of law. Europe is in deep trouble and it isn't "far right" to say so. Stop being brainwashed by your media and start questioning the status quo.

We're through the looking glass people