USA Politics

Perun said:
And that's enough. A rhetoric against Sanders does not have to be true, nor does it have to promise good things for the people. It needs to scare the electoral college in Wisconsin, that's all.
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I don't think you get my point. I'm saying that rhetoric may not be as effective as you think, especially if Sanders (or someone like him) can counter such a strategy.

(Sanders' platform being a mostly capitalistic mixed economy, and not a planned one, is a crucial point, for example)
 
The Flash said:
I don't think you get my point. I'm saying that rhetoric may not be as effective as you think.
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No, I think Perun's right. A lot of Americans instinctively fear the concept of Communism. Bernie would have been destroyed in 2016 by Trump.
 
LooseCannon said:
No, I think Perun's right. A lot of Americans instinctively fear the concept of Communism. Bernie would have been destroyed in 2016 by Trump.
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I'm not talking about 2016. Sanders' platform wasn't even strong enough among liberals in 2016, obviously it'd be a tall order for him to challenge Trump. It is strong enough among liberals now, though. We don't know how things might look during a campaign when that's the case.

"A lot of Americans" is a lot of people, but they're not a majority. I highly, highly doubt any liberals buy the idea that Sanders is a commie. All you need is to convince the Trump voters that voted for Obama twice in 2008 and 2012.

I will say this though, Sanders isn't helping his cause by referring to himself as a socialist when he's actually a social democrat. It boggles my mind that he does so. The Nordic model isn't a socialist one, it's a mostly capitalistic mixed economy one.
 
The Flash said:
It is strong enough among liberals now, though. We don't know how things might look during a campaign when that's the case.
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I'm not convinced there's enough actual liberals in the United States to win an election, though. There's an increasing middle ground as the Republicans lose registrations, but most of those people are certainly never-Trumpers who would not make up a reliable middle ground for a Sanders or Sanders-style presidency.
 
LooseCannon said:
I'm not convinced there's enough actual liberals in the United States to win an election, though. There's an increasing middle ground as the Republicans lose registrations, but most of those people are certainly never-Trumpers who would not make up a reliable middle ground for a Sanders or Sanders-style presidency.
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You're acting like US elections have been dominated by conservatives in forever. 4 of the last 7 elections were won by the Democratic candidate, and all three of the Conservative wins were by a hair, including two where the popular vote went to the Democrats.

If there aren't enough actual liberals to win an election, where are the Democratic votes coming from?
 
I have a lot more to say on this but I’m busy for the next few hours. I will say a significant chunk of democratic voters are not liberals though.
 
Only thing I can think of is minorities who fear being disenfranchised by the GOP candidate, but I don't see why their choice would change with Sanders.
 
Forostar said:
Collin, Cornfed, Bearfan, Travis come to mind. And someone called AlexS, I think.
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I am cool with some of the stuff Trump has done (tax cuts and some deregulation come to mind), I still think he is a world class jackass and did not vote for him (nor would have ever voted for Hillary) .. and will not vote for him in 2020.

The choice was a real world kobayashi maru ... no way to win
 
The Flash said:
I don't think you get my point. I'm saying that rhetoric may not be as effective as you think, especially if Sanders (or someone like him) can counter such a strategy.

(Sanders' platform being a mostly capitalistic mixed economy, and not a planned one, is a crucial point, for example)
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I get your point, I simply don't agree with it. I don't think there is an effective counter to Trump's strategy. When it comes down to it, "He's a Communist!" is a stronger argument than "He's a douchebag!"

bearfan said:
The choice was a real world kobayashi maru ... no way to win
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But there is a way to beat Kobayashi Maru...
 
Trump has made himself the symbol of a prevalent mixture of views and attitudes. It makes little difference what he does, any attack on Trump may as well be a direct attack on individuals who feel this way. I remain convinced that the person who ends Trump's political career will be Trump himself. He'll probably get bored with the novelty and sick of the inconvenience.
 
Perun said:
I get your point, I simply don't agree with it. I don't think there is an effective counter to Trump's strategy. When it comes down to it, "He's a Communist!" is a stronger argument than "He's a douchebag!"
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But that's not the argument that Sanders would use to communicate with people. According to recent surveys, a majority of Americans now support medicare for all and tuition free education. The latter sentiment is especially strong among young voters who are drowning in student loan debt. Trump has cut down unemployment a bit, but the wages are inadequate, and increasing the minimum wage is a part of Sanders' platform.

If he manages to connect with people on things that actually affect their lives, the "He's a commie" rhetoric won't work, at least not to the extent you think. Economic disenfrachisement was one of the most significant factors in Trump's election, and by far the leading reason in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I think you're underrating the impact of actual daily-life issues on voters by focusing on groups of people who already are partisans. Sanders' target should be to get the partisan Democratic vote, energize the young voter that doesn't show up to the polls and win over the Trump-voting workers that have voted Democratic in the past.
 
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Btw I'm not saying Sanders would be the favorite over Trump. It's still an uphill battle. In terms of unquestioning, complete support, Trump has one of the strongest voter bases in recent times.
 
The Flash said:
If he manages to connect with people on things that actually affect their lives, the "He's a commie" rhetoric won't work, at least not to the extent you think. Economic disenfrachisement was one of the most significant factors in Trump's election, and by far the leading reason in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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Correct, and I think that is one of the main reasons why the Democrats should have gone for Sanders had they wanted to win the election. However, this does not mean that Sanders can win the Rust Belt after it already went to Trump. Trump has the significant advantage of having been present there ever since 2016, so it's his home turf. People cheer when he's name-calling, and there's a lot of names he can call Sanders. Worst of all, Sanders is a favourite of the Liberal coast elite, and the Rust Belt hates these people.
I'll give you one thing, there is no sign of an evil spirit such as Steve Bannon in sight for 2020, at least as far as I'm aware. But I'm not sure how much he would be needed. Somebody just needs to teach Trump the words "snowflake" and "SJW", and the madness will ensue.
 
Perun said:
I'll give you one thing, there is no sign of an evil spirit such as Steve Bannon in sight for 2020, at least as far as I'm aware. But I'm not sure how much he would be needed. Somebody just needs to teach Trump the words "snowflake" and "SJW", and the madness will ensue.
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I think Trump has alienated some of his alt-right crowd, actually. I don't think they expected him to be in such strong support of Israel, get so involved in Syria and certainly not to increase ties to Saudi Arabia so strongly. They still like him for other reasons, but with the alt-right being such a strongly anti-Semitic and Islamophobic movement, those things probably turned them off some.

"Snowflake" and "SJW" stuff again are argument that speak to people that are already there. The people who are calling all progressives "libtards" "cucks" "snowflakes" or "SJWs" already voted for Trump in the last election, so no gains would be made on that end.
 
The Flash said:
Only thing I can think of is minorities who fear being disenfranchised by the GOP candidate, but I don't see why their choice would change with Sanders.
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Blue collar workers in the Midwest (the famed Obama-Trump voters), people with religious/traditional values but aren’t fanatics (many American Catholics and Jewish people fall in this category), “fiscal conservative/socially” liberal types. These people all have voted for Democrats but I wouldn’t necessarily classify them as liberals. When you average things out, America as a whole is a center right country IMO.

I do think progressivism can win in 2020 and there’s a real chance they will have comfortable majorities in the legislative branch. However, a lot of seats the Dems are picking up now are in Trump country and they are going to run into problems with the agenda when those new representatives won’t go for progressive legislation (they had this same problem with Obamacare).

To Perun’s earlier point, I think whataboutism works sometimes. It is always effective for the base and works for swing voters when you have a bad candidate (such as Hillary). I don’t think it’s all that effective with a good candidate though.

There are some disappointed alt righters who might not show up in 2020, but I think these people will be replaced with Republicans who have warmed up to Trump because Trump pretty much governs like a generic republican.

I don’t think Trump is that unstoppable either. He won by tiny margins and continues to be unpopular. Florida is on the verge of electing one of the most progressive governors in the country. All other states being the same in 2020 as in 2016, flipping Florida is all the Democrats need to win the presidency. The biggest obstacle is that by then, Trump will have been president for four years. It’s going to be difficult to use the argument that Trump is inexperienced or a threat in any way when most Americans’ daily lives haven’t really changed all that much. People are getting tired of the constant drama and political outrage though. They might be attracted to a level headed and scandal free alternative. It’s a long way to 2020 though, especially with a new Congress coming soon.
 
Mosh said:
Blue collar workers in the Midwest (the famed Obama-Trump voters), people with religious/traditional values but aren’t fanatics (many American Catholics and Jewish people fall in this category), “fiscal conservative/socially” liberal types. These people all have voted for Democrats but I wouldn’t necessarily classify them as liberals.
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I mean, the first ones clearly don't belong to any camp and are winnable, I doubt the second group ever cares for a fiend like Trump, and the third type probably ends up voting libertarian in case of a Sanders vs Trump scenario. Doesn't seem like it'd stand in the way of Sanders or a Sanders-type politician being a legitimate candidate.

Mosh said:
To Perun’s earlier point, I think whataboutism works sometimes. It is always effective for the base and works for swing voters when you have a bad candidate (such as Hillary). I don’t think it’s all that effective with a good candidate though.
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Yeah, that's pretty much my point. Can't pull the whataboutism card if the candidate doesn't have a lousy record. Hillary was the easiest target ever for whataboutism.

Mosh said:
There are some disappointed alt righters who might not show up in 2020, but I think these people will be replaced with Republicans who have warmed up to Trump because Trump pretty much governs like a generic republican.
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I actually edited in something about regular Republicans replacing the lost alt-righters in my last post, but it appears that I didn't confirm it. So yeah, I agree. You can tell about this shift by looking at previously non-Trump conservative commentors' current views on him.
 
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