Worst Mistake in the History of the Human Race

IronDuke

Ancient Mariner
The following was written by the Pulitzer-Prize winning author Jared Diamond (an MD at UCLA). It s one of the many things which has been occupying my time lately, and I'd love to hear some opinions on the theory:

The Worst Mistake in the History of the Human Race
To science we owe dramatic changes in our smug self-image. Astronomy taught us that our earth isn’t the center of the universe but merely one of billions of heavenly bodies. From biology we learned that we weren’t specially created by God but evolved along with millions of other species. Now archaeology is demolishing another sacred belief: that human history over the past million years has been a long tale of progress. In particular, recent discoveries suggest that the adoption of agriculture, supposedly our most decisive step toward a better life, was in many ways a catastrophe from which we have never recovered. With agriculture came the gross social and sexual inequality, the disease and despotism, that curse our existence.

At first, the evidence against this revisionist interpretation will strike twentieth century Americans as irrefutable. We’re better off in almost every respect than people of the Middle Ages, who in turn had it easier than cavemen, who in turn were better off than apes. Just count our advantages. We enjoy the most abundant and varied foods, the best tools and material goods, some of the longest and healthiest lives, in history. Most of us are safe from starvation and predators. We get our energy from oil and machines, not from our sweat. What neo-Luddite among us would trade his life for that of a medieval peasant, a caveman, or an ape?

For most of our history we supported ourselves by hunting and gathering: we hunted wild animals and foraged for wild plants. It’s a life that philosophers have traditionally regarded as nasty, brutish, and short. Since no food is grown and little is stored, there is (in this view) no respite from the struggle that starts anew each day to find wild foods and avoid starving. Our escape from this misery was facilitated only 10,000 years ago, when in different parts of the world people began to domesticate plants and animals. The agricultural revolution spread until today it’s nearly universal and few tribes of hunter-gatherers survive.

From the progressivist perspective on which I was brought up, to ask "Why did almost all our hunter-gatherer ancestors adopt agriculture?" is silly. Of course they adopted it because agriculture is an efficient way to get more food for less work. Planted crops yield far more tons per acre than roots and berries. Just imagine a band of savages, exhausted from searching for nuts or chasing wild animals, suddenly grazing for the first time at a fruit-laden orchard or a pasture full of sheep. How many milliseconds do you think it would take them to appreciate the advantages of agriculture?

The progressivist party line sometimes even goes so far as to credit agriculture with the remarkable flowering of art that has taken place over the past few thousand years. Since crops can be stored, and since it takes less time to pick food from a garden than to find it in the wild, agriculture gave us free time that hunter-gatherers never had. Thus it was agriculture that enabled us to build the Parthenon and compose the B-minor Mass.

While the case for the progressivist view seems overwhelming, it’s hard to prove. How do you show that the lives of people 10,000 years ago got better when they abandoned hunting and gathering for farming? Until recently, archaeologists had to resort to indirect tests, whose results (surprisingly) failed to support the progressivist view. Here’s one example of an indirect test: Are twentieth century hunter-gatherers really worse off than farmers? Scattered throughout the world, several dozen groups of so-called primitive people, like the Kalahari bushmen, continue to support themselves that way. It turns out that these people have plenty of leisure time, sleep a good deal, and work less hard than their farming neighbors. For instance, the average time devoted each week to obtaining food is only 12 to 19 hours for one group of Bushmen, 14 hours or less for the Hadza nomads of Tanzania. One Bushman, when asked why he hadn’t emulated neighboring tribes by adopting agriculture, replied, "Why should we, when there are so many mongongo nuts in the world?"

While farmers concentrate on high-carbohydrate crops like rice and potatoes, the mix of wild plants and animals in the diets of surviving hunter-gatherers provides more protein and a bettter balance of other nutrients. In one study, the Bushmen’s average daily food intake (during a month when food was plentiful) was 2,140 calories and 93 grams of protein, considerably greater than the recommended daily allowance for people of their size. It’s almost inconceivable that Bushmen, who eat 75 or so wild plants, could die of starvation the way hundreds of thousands of Irish farmers and their families did during the potato famine of the 1840s.

So the lives of at least the surviving hunter-gatherers aren’t nasty and brutish, even though farmes have pushed them into some of the world’s worst real estate. But modern hunter-gatherer societies that have rubbed shoulders with farming societies for thousands of years don’t tell us about conditions before the agricultural revolution. The progressivist view is really making a claim about the distant past: that the lives of primitive people improved when they switched from gathering to farming. Archaeologists can date that switch by distinguishing remains of wild plants and animals from those of domesticated ones in prehistoric garbage dumps.

How can one deduce the health of the prehistoric garbage makers, and thereby directly test the progressivist view? That question has become answerable only in recent years, in part through the newly emerging techniques of paleopathology, the study of signs of disease in the remains of ancient peoples.

In some lucky situations, the paleopathologist has almost as much material to study as a pathologist today. For example, archaeologists in the Chilean deserts found well preserved mummies whose medical conditions at time of death could be determined by autopsy (Discover, October). And feces of long-dead Indians who lived in dry caves in Nevada remain sufficiently well preserved to be examined for hookworm and other parasites.

Usually the only human remains available for study are skeletons, but they permit a surprising number of deductions. To begin with, a skeleton reveals its owner’s sex, weight, and approximate age. In the few cases where there are many skeletons, one can construct mortality tables like the ones life insurance companies use to calculate expected life span and risk of death at any given age. Paleopathologists can also calculate growth rates by measuring bones of people of different ages, examine teeth for enamel defects (signs of childhood malnutrition), and recognize scars left on bones by anemia, tuberculosis, leprosy, and other diseases.

One straight forward example of what paleopathologists have learned from skeletons concerns historical changes in height. Skeletons from Greece and Turkey show that the average height of hunger-gatherers toward the end of the ice ages was a generous 5’ 9" for men, 5’ 5" for women. With the adoption of agriculture, height crashed, and by 3000 B. C. had reached a low of only 5’ 3" for men, 5’ for women. By classical times heights were very slowly on the rise again, but modern Greeks and Turks have still not regained the average height of their distant ancestors.

Another example of paleopathology at work is the study of Indian skeletons from burial mounds in the Illinois and Ohio river valleys. At Dickson Mounds, located near the confluence of the Spoon and Illinois rivers, archaeologists have excavated some 800 skeletons that paint a picture of the health changes that occurred when a hunter-gatherer culture gave way to intensive maize farming around A. D. 1150. Studies by George Armelagos and his colleagues then at the University of Massachusetts show these early farmers paid a price for their new-found livelihood. Compared to the hunter-gatherers who preceded them, the farmers had a nearly 50 per cent increase in enamel defects indicative of malnutrition, a fourfold increase in iron-deficiency anemia (evidenced bya bone condition called porotic hyperostosis), a theefold rise in bone lesions reflecting infectious disease in general, and an increase in degenerative conditions of the spine, probably reflecting a lot of hard physical labor. "Life expectancy at birth in the pre-agricultural community was bout twenty-six years," says Armelagos, "but in the post-agricultural community it was nineteen years. So these episodes of nutritional stress and infectious disease were seriously affecting their ability to survive."

The evidence suggests that the Indians at Dickson Mounds, like many other primitive peoples, took up farming not by choice but from necessity in order to feed their constantly growing numbers. "I don’t think most hunger-gatherers farmed until they had to, and when they switched to farming they traded quality for quantity," says Mark Cohen of the State University of New York at Plattsburgh, co-editor with Armelagos, of one of the seminal books in the field, Paleopathology at the Origins of Agriculture. "When I first started making that argument ten years ago, not many people agreed with me. Now it’s become a respectable, albeit controversial, side of the debate."

There are at least three sets of reasons to explain the findings that agriculture was bad for health. First, hunter-gatherers enjoyed a varied diet, while early farmers obtained most of their food from one or a few starchy crops. The farmers gained cheap calories at the cost of poor nutrition. (today just three high-carbohydrate plants–wheat, rice, and corn–provide the bulk of the calories consumed by the human species, yet each one is deficient in certain vitamins or amino acids essential to life.) Second, because of dependence on a limited number of crops, farmers ran the risk of starvation if one crop failed. Finally, the mere fact that agriculture encouraged people to clump together in crowded societies, many of which then carried on trade with other crowded societies, led to the spread of parasites and infectious disease. (Some archaeologists think it was the crowding, rather than agriculture, that promoted disease, but this is a chicken-and-egg argument, because crowding encourages agriculture and vice versa.) Epidemics couldn’t take hold when populations were scattered in small bands that constantly shifted camp. Tuberculosis and diarrheal disease had to await the rise of farming, measles and bubonic plague the appearnce of large cities.

Besides malnutrition, starvation, and epidemic diseases, farming helped bring another curse upon humanity: deep class divisions. Hunter-gatherers have little or no stored food, and no concentrated food sources, like an orchard or a herd of cows: they live off the wild plants and animals they obtain each day. Therefore, there can be no kings, no class of social parasites who grow fat on food seized from others. Only in a farming population could a healthy, non-producing élite set itself above the disease-ridden masses. Skeletons from Greek tombs at Mycenae c. 1500 B. C. suggest that royals enjoyed a better diet than commoners, since the royal skeletons were two or three inches taller and had better teeth (on the average, one instead of six cavities or missing teeth). Among Chilean mummies from c. A. D. 1000, the élite were distinguished not only by ornaments and gold hair clips but also by a fourfold lower rate of bone lesions caused by disease.

Similar contrasts in nutrition and health persist on a global scale today. To people in rich countries like the U. S., it sounds ridiculous to extol the virtues of hunting and gathering. But Americans are an élite, dependent on oil and minerals that must often be iimproted from countries with poorer health and nutrition. If one could choose between being a peasant farmer in Ethiopia or a bushman gatherer in the Kalahari, which do you think would be the better choice?

Farming may have encouraged inequality between the sexes, as well. Freed from the need to transport their babies during a nomadic existence, and under pressure to produce more hands to till the fields, farming women tended to have more frequent pregnancies than their hunter-gatherer counterparts–with consequent drains on their health. Among the Chilean mummies for example, more women than men had bone lesions from infectious disease.

Women in agricultural societies were sometimes made beasts of burden. In New Guinea farming communities today I often see women staggering under loads of vegetables and firewood while the men walk empty-handed. Once while on a field trip there studying birds, I offered to pay some villagers to carry supplies from an airstrip to my mountain camp. The heaviest item was a 110-pound bag of rice, which I lashed to a pole and assigned to a team of four men to shoulder together. When I eventually caught up with the villagers, the men were carrying light loads, while one small woman weighing less than the bag of rice was bent under it, supporting its weight by a cord across her temples.

As for the claim that agriculture encouraged the flowering of art by providing us with leisure time, modern hunter-gatherers have at least as much free time as do farmers. The whole emphasis on leisure time as a critical factor seems to me misguided. Gorillas have had ample free time to build their own Parthenon, had they wanted to. While post-agricultural technological advances did make new art forms possible and preservation of art easier, great paintings and sculptures were already being produced by hunter-gatherers 15,000 years ago, and were still being produced as recently as the last century by such hunter-gatherers as some Eskimos and the Indians of the Pacific Northwest.

Thus with the advent of agriculture and élite became better off, but most people became worse off. Instead of swallowing the progressivist party line that we chose agriculture because it was good for us, we must ask how we got trapped by it despite its pitfalls.

One answer boils down to the adage "Might makes right." Farming could support many more people than hunting, albeit with a poorer quality of life. (Population densities of hunter-gatherers are rarely over on eperson per ten square miles, while farmers average 100 times that.) Partly, this is because a field planted entirely in edible crops lets one feed far more mouths than a forest with scattered edible plants. Partly, too, it’s because nomadic hunter-gatherers have to keep their children spaced at four-year intervals by infanticide and other means, since a mother must carry her toddler until it’s old enough to keep up with the adults. Because farm women don’t have that burden, they can and often do bear a child every two years.

As population densities of hunter-gatherers slowly rose at the end of the ice ages, bands had to choose between feeding more mouths by taking the first steps toward agriculture, or else finding ways to limit growth. Some bands chose the former solution, unable to anticipate the evils of farming, and seduced by the transient abundance they enjoyed until population growth caught up with increased food production. Such bands outbred and then drove off or killed the bands that chose to remain hunter-gatherers, because a hundred malnourished farmers can still outfight one healthy hunter. It’s not that hunter-gatherers abandonded their life style, but that those sensible enough not to abandon it were forced out of all areas except the ones farmers didn’t want.

At this point it’s instructive to recall the common complaint that archaeology is a luxury, concerned with the remote past, and offering no lessons for the present. Archaeologists studying the rise of farming have reconstructed a crucial stage at which we made the worst mistake in human history. Forced to choose between limiting population or trying to increase food production, we chose the latter and ended up with starvation, warfare, and tyranny.

Hunter-gatherers practiced the most successful and logest-lasting life style in human history. In contrast, we’re still struggling with the mess into which agriculture has tumbled us, and it’s unclear whether we can solve it. Suppose that an archaeologist who had visited from outer space were trying to explain human history to his fellow spacelings. He might illustrate the results of his digs by a 24-hour clock on which one hour represents 100,000 years of real past time. If the history of the human race began at midnight, then we would now be almost at the end of our first day. We lived as hunter-gatherers for nearly the whole of that day, from midnight through dawn, noon, and sunset. Finally, at 11:54 p. m. we adopted agriculture. As our second midnight approaches, will the plight of famine-stricken peasants gradually spread to engulf us all? Or will we somehow achieve those seductive blessings that we imagine behind agriculture’s glittering façade, and that have so far eluded us?
 
This person makes a few fundamental mistakes.

First, he (she- what kind of name is Jared?) attempts, at all costs to look for one event that can be labeled as the worst mistake. That is, in my opinion, an antiquated view of history- the greatest leader, the most decisive battle, the most smelly fart. This way of looking at history makes us learn nothing.
The purpose of studying history can not be to single out and study the facts, but instead must be approached with the idea of regarding history as one continuous progress. Otherwise, we simply learn nothing of it.

Second, the author points out a couple of things that can be rebutted almost immediately:

[!--QuoteBegin--][div class=\'quotetop\']QUOTE[/div][div class=\'quotemain\'][!--QuoteEBegin--]With agriculture came the gross social and sexual inequality, the disease and despotism, that curse our existence.
[/quote]

Social inequality? Despotism? Mr(s) Diamond, have you ever heard of wolves and lions? Just look at the way a wolf pack is structured. We can observe that there is a strict hierarchy of members that goes from the alpha wolf to the omega wolf.
The alpha position is usually fought about, so that it is inarguable to say that the strongest animal of the pack gets the alpha position (which is challenged as soon as the alpha wolf shows any sign of weakness).
This is mostly observable in the way the food is distributed:

* The alpha wolf gets to eat first. No quarter.
* The cubs get to eat next.
* The second-strongest wolf gets to eat next.
etc.
In the end, we have the omega wolf, which more often than not, gets the insufficient remains because he is the weakest. This way, he will remain the weakest. Do you call that social equality? Of course not! It's Darwinism. If we translated this to the human world, we would call it the most unsocial system ever!

Let's examine the way another pack-hunter manages this- the lion. Here, we usually have a pack that consists of one grown male lion, a number of female lions and lion cubs.

* The male lion is the strongest of the animals. He defends the pack from potential enemies.
* The female lions go out hunting and raise the cubs.
* The male lion gets to eat first, then the cubs, then the females.

Again, would you call this social equality? Moreover, would you call this sexual equality? If so, why ever? What about despotism? Isn't a pack leader that has all the power of defense who just lies around all day and gets the lion share (sorry for the pun) of the food for himself a despot?

Now, I have never heard of lion or wolf farmers. I tend to think that in his early stages, mankind has followed similar rules. In fact, these structures still aren't extinct. If the way societies have been politicized and organized for millennia doesn't convince you, then just look at what happens when a group of people gets into an emergency situation. A hierarchy comes into existence automatically. There are more than enough studies to prove this point (sorry if I can't quote any, will look for if you want to).

Now, I have already mentioned the sexual inequality in the lion's case. I am not sure about the wolves (I think I remember a special structure here too) because I don't have my books by my side right now.
The fact is, however, that there is much archaeological and palaeontological evidence to prove the case of a palaeolithic* matriarchy, beginning with the famous Venus of Willendorf, a small stone sculpture with strong female features. Now, I did not make this up, this point was proven by experts and is advocated by feminists.
While I believe that there have been phases of matriarchy and phases of patriarchy in prehistory, and these have relieved each other over time, there has never been a time of sexual equality during this era (or, sadly, any other era).

I will not begin to point out the ridiculosity of mentioning the disease, since that is already in obvious contradiction to what the rest of the article says.

With such glowing errors in the preface, I have difficulties with reading the article unbiased, and I must say I believe Mr(s) Diamond only won the Pulitzer for the gift of words.

Stay tuned for part two: Perun's counter-theory, coming soon in a thread near you.


----
*The palaeolithicum, also known as the Stone Age, is characterized by hunter-gatherer cultures, and therefore predates the age of farming.
 
I think Mr. Diamond (yes Perun, it is a man, and Jared is a fairly common male name in the US) is right on the money with most of this article. The development of agriculture is the worst thing that ever happened to civilization. It's simultaneously the best thing that ever happened to us.

Everything that Mr. Diamond says about problems caused by agriculture is correct. It is widely recognized by sociologists as the original source of social inequality. By relying only on foodstuffs we grow, we open ourselves to risk of malnutrition and famine. That is all true.

However, you can't improve civilization without taking risks. You can't always make something better without making something else worse. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

So the flip side of social inequality is the fact that agriculture allowed specialization in other fields by the non-farmers. There would be little science without agriculture, and no technology without science. There would be little art, and certainly no great artists who became great precisely because they could afford to devote their lives to art.

Mr. Diamond notes that modern hunter-gatherers have plenty of "free time". But the great advances in human knowledge and culture weren't done on a free-time basis. Archimedes, Aristotle, Beethoven, Newton, Shakespeare, Einstein and the other giants of history didn't engage in their crafts in their spare time: they did it full-time, every day, often obsessively. Free time isn't enough to develop science; if it was, modern hunter-gatherers would have developed better science by now.

In short, while Mr. Diamond covers one side of the issue very well here, he almost entirely ignores or dismisses the myriad benefits of agriculture. This is a case where, in the long run, the good outweighs the evil.

I've read Diamond's famous book (Guns, Germs and Steel). It's a fascinating work that I'd recommend to anyone. The research he did for that book provides much of his background for this essay. But the reason GG&S won the Pulitzer was not just skilled writing, but because it took a very balanced perspective which tried to consider all sides of issues. I hope that Mr. Diamond returns to that style soon, as I'm sure he could write an equally powerful essay about the benefits of agriculture (an issue he treated more fairly in his book).
 
Actually, Per, you bring up some valid arguments. I'd only disagree with the following:

1. He (Jared is a common male name on this side of the pond) won a Pulitzer not for this article, but for his book "Guns Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies" It's probably the most revolutionary history book published in English since Braudel's "The Mediterranean in the Age of Philip II" was translated from French. (If either are available in German, I bet you'll be forced to read them at some point soon)

2. Before agriculture was wide-spread, labour was divided, but valued equally. Men hunted because of their greater physical strength and stamina; men were simply biologically more suited to chasing and killing furry things.
Women gathered roots, nuts, berries, and other foods. Both the meat and the veggies were 100% essential to surrvival, and therefore women's labour was valued equally with men's. He doesn't suggest society was egalitarian, but rather it was much less "unfair".
When agriculture came along, physical strength was the biggest determinant in how productive farms were. The stronger people (men) therefore had more say in how society was run. Women's labour wasn't as valuable, sadly.

I look forward to your other thoughts on this. I don't entirely agree with him myself, but I like opening debates.
 
hehe...sorry SMX, you hadn't posted when I first read Per's reply. It looks like I simply repeated what you've said!
 
I have my own thoughts on this, and I have for a long time. I personally believe that agriculture started as a method of maintaining a certain area of land, to protect it from one's neighbours. Back in the day, humans certainly fought with other humans for the best grounds for hunting and gathering. When a tribe forced off another tribe, it was only a matter of time until they were also forced off.

Because much of this plentiful land, the areas where you would gather fish, berries, other nuts (which make up 90% of the prehistorical human's diet) is the same land that is very easily arable, it probably didn't take long before those humans noticed that if you dropped the berry seeds in certain places, berry plants began to grow there. In fact, if you had more berries, you could safely have more babies, and thus safely have more warriors for the next time that pesky tribe comes around.

Obviously this is a bit of oversimplification, but I think my point carries. Agriculture began as a method of population increase to defend the prime hunting/fishing grounds. If you settle these areas you are far more likely to defeat marauding tribes, and keep them in possession for yourself.
 
All the posts above are long and contain a lot of information that is hard to digest so I will keep my answer short and sweet. As for the opinion in the book Duke is talking about, I cannot agree that this describes one mistake, actually a long progression of mistakes over hundreds of years.
IMO, the biggest single decision making mistake in history was made by a man call Adolf Hitler. In 1940 during the battle of Britain, the Germans were destroying the British aeroplane repair centres and storage hangars. it was Hitlers (or one of his backroom teams) stratedgy to destroy British airforce, then invade the country.
2 days from breaking point, the Nazis changed their plan and directly bombed the cities and bulit-up areas. This gave the Brits a chance to repair their aircraft and eventually ward off the Germans in scenes depicted by the popular metal song Aces High.
If Hitler kept up his campaign of bombing the aircraft repair centres and storage facilities, the Nazis would have won the war and probably dramatically changed our future. One mistake by Hitler cost him deer and than H for that.
 
If Mr Diamond is the author of "Guns Germs And Steel", it escapes me how someone so celebrated can bring up such a flawed thesis.

I'm not saying that Diamond is fundamentally wrong -which he surely isn't- but his essay is looking at it the wrong way.

Riddle me this: What major development in human history was started by one single event?


Well?


None, of course. When I'm talking about "major development", I am, naturally, not talking about the downfall of some dynasty or the discovery of a continent. Those are events. A major development is a gradual process, such as the transformation from the Copper to the Bronze Ages, or the rise of Greek culture. It is utter bullshit to say "The Greeks flourished from 514 to 323 BC" (note I'm not choosing these dates at random). Neither did the developments that led to the "Golden Age" of Greece begin in 514, nor did they end in 323. We can find the first vanguards of what was to come as early as 1500 BC, and, hey, our western civilization is based on it, so it's hardly dead yet!

Couldn't follow me? OK, let's take another example that is more easy to compare to the shift of Palaeolithicum to Neolithicum: The fall of Rome.

Ask any historian about the main factor of the end of the empire, and he will simply shrug. Anything from the Germanic invasions to the water pipes made of lead has been suggested, and each theory is as believable as the preceding one; in fact, it is impossible to single out one and say "THAT is why Rome fell!" When the empire was divided in 395, it was already crumbling; it was hardly a factor, but many people say this was the final blow. Foreign invasions have been contained before, for centuries, so why should they prove lethal now, if the empire hadn't already been weak from within? You can't single out one event, because this is impossible.

Likewise, it is impossible to single out agriculture as The One Worst Mistake (notabene, some people suggested "starting to walk upright" or "starting to talk" because they felt the need to find one thing). There has been no One Worst Mistake, just like there has been no One Most Evil Man or One Greatest Empire in human history. I'm not going to lean out of the window too much in trying to find out why humanity seems to need to find these single reasons, but it would be an interesting study.

The fact is, using Mr Diamonds argumentation, we can just as well stigmatize the beginning of urbanization, which, arguably goes hand in hand with agriculture. And couldn't the beginning of pottery, which, as it seems, also predates agriculture, the beginning of early property -I have a pot and you don't-, which is a decisive factor in our social problems? And what about the hunter who slew three sabretooth tigers while his peers each only killed one? Isn't he a bigger hero and a stronger fellow who might be guided on an ego trip by this?

Mr Diamonds method of explaining history really makes me wonder why he is so celebrated (no, I haven't read his book).
 
It's actually Dr. Diamond, not Mr. [!--emo&:p--][img src=\'style_emoticons/[#EMO_DIR#]/tongue.gif\' border=\'0\' style=\'vertical-align:middle\' alt=\'tongue.gif\' /][!--endemo--]

but other than that, there is absolutely nothing wrong with your critique.

Admittedly, the title is misleading and meant only to grab the reader's attention, I think.
 
[!--QuoteBegin-IronDuke+Oct 27 2005, 12:44 PM--][div class=\'quotetop\']QUOTE(IronDuke @ Oct 27 2005, 12:44 PM)[/div][div class=\'quotemain\'][!--QuoteEBegin--]Admittedly, the title is misleading and meant only to grab the reader's attention, I think.
[snapback]121475[/snapback]​
[/quote]

Well, thats why you named the thread that, right? [!--emo&:D--][img src=\'style_emoticons/[#EMO_DIR#]/biggrin.gif\' border=\'0\' style=\'vertical-align:middle\' alt=\'biggrin.gif\' /][!--endemo--]
 
[!--QuoteBegin-conorsdaman@hotmail.com+Oct 27 2005, 06:00 PM--][div class=\'quotetop\']QUOTE(conorsdaman@hotmail.com @ Oct 27 2005, 06:00 PM)[/div][div class=\'quotemain\'][!--QuoteEBegin--]IMO, the biggest single decision making mistake in history was made by a man call Adolf Hitler.  In 1940 during the battle of Britain, the Germans were destroying the British aeroplane repair centres and storage hangars.  it was Hitlers (or one of his backroom teams) stratedgy to destroy British airforce, then invade the country.
2 days from breaking point, the Nazis changed their plan and directly bombed the cities and bulit-up areas.  This gave the Brits a chance to repair their aircraft and eventually ward off the Germans in scenes depicted by the popular metal song Aces High.
If Hitler kept up his campaign of bombing the aircraft repair centres and storage facilities, the Nazis would have won the war and probably dramatically changed our future.  One mistake by Hitler cost him deer and than H for that.
[snapback]121463[/snapback]​
[/quote]
I wholeheartedly disagree. Britain under Churchill was just waiting for a Nazi attack. That island was prepared for anything, and I think that the Wehrmacht would have been broken upon the British anvil had they attacked.
 
I posted this in the Aces High commentary thread at first, but upon searching the forums more thoroughly I can see that my question perhaps better belong in this thread. Moderators may delete my post in the Aces High thread if they wish.

Do you all think then, that it can it be argued that the success of the RAF in defeating the Luftwaffe and thus preventing an occupation was the first milestone towards the allies winning the second world war over Nazi Germany? And the first "crack" in the facade of the otherwise unstoppable German war machine, that perhaps they were not as unstoppable as first thought?And LooseCannon you you think that the second world war would have been over sooner HAD Hitler attacked Britain?
 
The Battle of Britain was a successful act of defense. It showed the capabilities of allied strength in the air but the facade wasn't cracked yet.

In German eyes, their loss of the Battle of Britain was a mere detail that could be rectified whenever convenient.
The point is: it never became convenient, and within a couple of years it was becoming impossible. When the Soviets started to win terrain in Eastern Europe and when the bombardments increased; that made the Germans crack.

But of course: Without Britain's survival, it is hard to see how the USA could ever have been directly involvement in the European war.
 
how the USA could ever have been directly involvement in the European war

USA landed in West Europe to stop Soviets from reaching West Europe. Simple as that. It's one of few things i'll admit to USA, their involvement in Europe gave us a chance of self-determination.
 
Interesting find. I recall that after the discussion in this thread I got myself a copy of Guns Germs & Steel, and the Duke was right - it really did have a profound impact on the way I view history. It would be interesting to have the original discussion again, seven years later.

Wait, was that really seven years ago?

I digress.

I posted this in the Aces High commentary thread at first, but upon searching the forums more thoroughly I can see that my question perhaps better belong in this thread. Moderators may delete my post in the Aces High thread if they wish.

Do you all think then, that it can it be argued that the success of the RAF in defeating the Luftwaffe and thus preventing an occupation was the first milestone towards the allies winning the second world war over Nazi Germany? And the first "crack" in the facade of the otherwise unstoppable German war machine, that perhaps they were not as unstoppable as first thought?And LooseCannon you you think that the second world war would have been over sooner HAD Hitler attacked Britain?

There was a thread here a couple of years ago where I wrote a detailed opinion on the question of why the Germans lost the war. Unfortunately, the thread has vanished, but I recall saying that the Germans lost the war on 22. June 1941, i.e. the day Operation Barbarossa began. I still maintain this opinion, but I have learned quite a bit more on the subject since then, so my reasoning has changed.

The defeat in the Battle of Britain was a nail in the coffin of German victory, but not the only one. Certainly, LooseCannon is better equipped to explain to you why the RAF won this battle, and whether it was due to superior aviation technology, higher motivation of RAF pilots, German overconfidence or all those and other factors combined. What is certainly true is that the RAF harmed the German nimbus of invincibility by their successful defence of Britain, their sinking of the Bismarck and by starting to carry the war home to Germany with their first bombing raids. By the time Barbarossa began, the first air raids on Berlin had already taken place, and I can imagine this being a significant morale boost for the western Allies. It would be interesting to see if there is a study on what effect the RAF success had on the resistance movements in France, Poland, Norway and elsewhere.

Granted, the Germans did not take their defeat too seriously, as Forostar noted. Even if the Luftwaffe had suffered a blow, the Atlantic was infested with German u-boats that made sure not too much of Lend-Lease material and Canadian reinforcements made it to the Isle. I do not know the German strategy papers of the time, but I suppose an American entry to the war was not expected for quite a while. So for the time being, the Germans could hope to keep the British at bay with comparatively little effort. We all know that the British had much better capabilities than the Germans gave them credit for, so I would judge this as one of the fatal miscalculations that lost Hitler the war - one of them, not the only one.

I believe that the geostrategic failure of German foreign politics in 1940 was an even more serious factor contributing to their military defeat. Even during the Battle of Britain, Hitler hoped to somehow draw the British on his side, one way or the other. During that time, Germany and the Soviet Union were as close as allies could be. The idea was to somehow draw the Soviet Union and Great Britain into conflict with each other, so Germany could backstab the Soviets and fight with the British against a common enemy. The idea was to draw Soviet attention on Central and South Asia. The belief was that Stalin was pursuing the age-old goal of having a Russian harbour on a warm coast. The Germans hoped to push the Soviets into pursuing this goal on the expense of the British, a world power that was busy enough defending their own homeland against German aggression, and either invading Iran and seizing the Persian Gulf shore, or moving towards British India. There was a time during 1940 when such a move did indeed seem imminent. Iran had a strong Communist movement that was in stark opposition to British imperialist presence in the area, and India was at the verge of a violent uprising against their overlords. It was one of Gandhi's finest moments to have prevented that. Stalin did however not live up to the German expectations for reasons disputed among historians to this day. Did he try to avoid war at any cost? Did he anticipate a German attack and try to keep his forces together? Did he secretly plan an attack on Germany himself? Was he content with gaining the Baltic and Bessarabia? In any case, having failed to divert Soviet attention to other fronts, the Germans more or less ran into an open knife when attacking the Soviet Union.

The third and most dramatic failure, in my opinion, was Hitler's choice of allies. Modern historiography with all its shiny maps and sleek animations makes it seem like the Axis was a sort of monolithic superpower at no-one's mercy except Hitler's nervous fits. That is not true. Germany had a very hard time gathering allies for their cause, just as in the First World War. A few puppet states like Slovakia and Hungary don't make a broad front to fight the world. That was, however, as loyal as they got. Franco did not want to go straight into the next war having just conquered Spain after three years of heavy fighting. So what about Italy and Japan? Let us start with the latter. Germany allied with Japan in hope of getting someone who would throw themselves at Stalin's back and invade the Soviet Union from the east. The Germans actually tested the option of allying with China first, but ultimately came to the conclusion that Japan was the better bet. The gamble did not work out however, because instead of coming at Germany's aid and attacking the Soviets, the Japanese did the diametrical opposite from a strategic point of view, by attacking the United States and drawing them into the war - and Hitler, still naively thinking that he and Japan were in the same boat, declared war on America himself. Not only did this trigger the arsenal of democracy being fired at Germany with no remorse, but it also helped the Soviets significantly. First of all, the Soviets could gather fresh troops from the Far East to the European front in the winter of 1941 when they were no longer needed to repel the Japanese. More importantly however, this opened completely new ways of aiding the Soviets in their struggle. We all know the stories of the brave Allied convoys making their way to Murmansk and Arkhangelsk outrunning German u-boats and navigating through mine fields. In fact, the western route lost its importance when it became clear that the Americans would be military allies to the Soviets against Germany. Ships from American and Canadian ports could safely cross the Pacific because they were flying Soviet flags, thus not being in danger of being attacked by Japanese forces. Furthermore, Soviet and British forces had occupied Iran as early as August 1941, thus securing a supply route through Central Asia, far off from any German troops. Hence, there were three routes through which the Soviets could be supplied, and only one could be considered as truly dangerous.

But believe it or not, Hitler had even one worse ally than Japan. His name was Mussolini. I would argue that his involvement was what definitely lost the war for Germany. Mussolini was a loose cannon jealous of Hitler's success, dreaming to restore the Roman Empire, and not up to the challenge. His greatest military triumphs came from invading countries like Albania and Abessinia. Then, he failed big time when trying to invade Greece. The Greeks offered steadfast resistance, throwing back Italian forces and leaving Mussolini humiliated. Mussolini called Germany for help, and Hitler was obliged to respond. The ensuing Balkan campaign was a success, no doubt, but from a strategic perspective, it was the worst timing imaginable, because it took place in Spring 1941- exactly when Germany had planned to invade the Soviet Union, thus delaying Barbarossa by several crucial months.

That was so fatal because the success of Barbarossa relied completely on German initiative. The Germans had gathered the biggest army ever and established the longest frontline in history. The idea was to throw down the Soviets in a single, massive blitzkrieg. Many historians and amateur strategists argue that the front line the Germans had established was unsustainable. That is beside the point in my opinion, because had the Germans reached their initial goals, sustaining the front line would not have been necessary. The idea was to capture Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad in the course of one parallel movement of three armies. I believe that the Germans really only lacked one thing: Time. By the time Leningrad and Moscow were reached, winter was breaking in, rendering the German army almost useless for attack. Stalingrad was not reached, but had the other two objectives been taken, that failure would have not weighed so heavily. I suppose that had the Germans had another two or three months, they could have taken the former two cities- and those months were occupied by the Balkan campaign. The winter gave the Soviets precious time to recover, and the second assault in 1942 had a much lesser impact than the first. By the winter of 1942/43, the Soviets had sufficiently recovered from the blows, and amassed their forces both from Allied shipments and their own hyper-industrialisation of the eastern territories and were ready for the counterstrike. Western forces had invaded Northern Africa, started firebombing German cities and made their way up Italy. The rest is history.

Hence, you could argue that Greek resistance against the Italians had as much an effect on the turn of the war as the RAF resistance against the Germans.
 
When I first saw the title of this thread, I just assumed it was about VIRTUAL XI. :p

Regardless of that, I wonder how the advent of the Internet/WiFi will ultimately alter the trajectory of the human race.
There is something about it that seems ironically Orwellian to me. <_<
 
I like Jared Diamond's writing, but I think he's way off-base here.

Food is a basic resource that we all need for survival, and a lack of food brings out survival instincts. Even within families and tribes, humans fought each other over food even before the advent of agriculture.
 
Perun's analysis is pretty much spot-on. I can, of course, explain the Battle of Britain in great detail if needed. A lot of people think the USSR would have defeated Germany on their own without the help of the USA and Britain, but I really take significant issue with this. Not militarily - as Zare has noted, the primary result of the D-Day invasion was not the defeat of Nazi Germany (though it hastened this defeat significantly), but to protect Western Europe from the Soviets.

A lot of the time we talk about Lend-Lease to the Soviets as sending things like tanks, planes, and artillery. But the Soviets were not really interested in these things. Oh, they used them, but they preferred their own armour, artillery, and plane designs. The real aid to the USSR from the USA was simple:

14 million pairs of felt boots.
750,000 Ford & GMC 4x4 trucks.

Without those pieces of equipment, the Soviet army did not march and it did not eat. Once the USSR passed their original borders, their advance would have stalled, as European and Soviet rail used completely different gauges. The ability of Japan to open the Vladivostok port in such an interesting way was really killer to the German war effort, as that's the port most of these things came through.
 
Defeating the Germans. I am not saying that the Soviets would definitely have done it without Western help, but I also won't say that they could not have done it without the West.

The critical years for the Soviet Union did not start in 1943 when Lend-Lease was coming on full stream, but in 1941-1942, when Western aid was still marginal. At that juncture, the Red Army did face the brunt of German airpower; it did not run short of weapons or munitions, which of necessity were mainly home-produced; and in spite of everything, it did hold out. What is more, much of the early Lend-Lease aid was unusable. British tanks were not what the Red Army needed, and British Army greatcoats (like German greatcoats) were totally unsuitable to the Russian winter. The Soviets had already gained the upper hand on their own account before Western aid began to reach them in quantity.
 
Back
Top