Worldwide Politics

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 7164
  • Start date Start date
Opposing candidates for the upcoming election challenged Erdoğan to a debate on national television. Erdoğan refused, saying "He doesn't want to get caught up with that stuff and doesn't want them to make a name for themselves off of him."

Would be perceived as something that could influence the election in the West, right? Unfortunately, nobody gave a damn about it here. It wasn't even a news story.
 
@The Flash as you might imagine, there is quite some coverage of the Turkish elections here currently. Although most media here take great lengths to explain that a prediction is impossible, there is a lot of clutching at straws that Erdoǧan wouldn't get the absolute majority because he is making major mistakes in his campaign and that if the opposition unites behind İnce in a run-off, Erdoǧan may end up losing. Do you think this is possible? Do you think the oppositional politicians are serious about a reversion of the constitutional changes? Is, to put it naively, İnce a good guy?
 
Perun said:
@The Flash as you might imagine, there is quite some coverage of the Turkish elections here currently. Although most media here take great lengths to explain that a prediction is impossible, there is a lot of clutching at straws that Erdoǧan wouldn't get the absolute majority because he is making major mistakes in his campaign and that if the opposition unites behind İnce in a run-off, Erdoǧan may end up losing. Do you think this is possible? Do you think the oppositional politicians are serious about a reversion of the constitutional changes? Is, to put it naively, İnce a good guy?
Click to expand...

The Turkish public is divided into two camps, pro-Erdoğan and anti-Erdoğan, and they're damn near 50%-50%. That was reflected in the referendum, which ended 51.4% to 48.6%. Since the referendum, Turkish economy has been dealing with serious issues, the value of the Turkish lira has plummeted. That has to do with Erdoğan interfering with the free market and the Central Bank policies. His supporters are adamant that the economic situation is due to "outside forces trying to push Erdoğan out the door by influencing the market". However, the less fanatical people who had been voting for Erdoğan for economic reasons may react differently.

The media is correct in saying that a prediction is impossible. This is the first time since I've been following politics closely that I don't have a clear idea about the outcome. The few respectable polls in the country point to an election that is very much on the fence. Gun to my head, I'd guess Erdoğan and his allies lose the majority in the Parliament and the presidential race goes to a run-off, but Erdoğan ends up winning the run-off. I would not be surprised with any outcome, though.

As for İnce, he's good, I'll be voting for him. He's from a Kemalist background but has softened his stance on a lot of issues and has embraced a more social democratic platform in his campaign. That has been the case for his party, CHP, as a whole under the leadership of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Kılıçdaroğlu never quite got the crowds behind him though, because he's not much of a public speaker. That's İnce's strength. In terms of support in the run-off, it'll depend on the religious conservatives who don't support Erdoğan, really. The Kurds seem to be okay with the idea of supporting İnce in a run-off, as do a lot of the Turkish nationalists. An Islamic conservative party is allied with CHP for the parliamentary race, but whether they can convince their voters to vote for a secular social democrat over a religious conservative that they don't care for is questionable.
 
The Flash said:
The Turkish public is divided into two camps, pro-Erdoğan and anti-Erdoğan, and they're damn near 50%-50%. That was reflected in the referendum, which ended 51.4% to 48.6%. Since the referendum, Turkish economy has been dealing with serious issues, the value of the Turkish lira has plummeted. That has to do with Erdoğan interfering with the free market and the Central Bank policies. His supporters are adamant that the economic situation is due to "outside forces trying to push Erdoğan out the door by influencing the market". However, the less fanatical people who had been voting for Erdoğan for economic reasons may react differently.

The media is correct in saying that a prediction is impossible. This is the first time since I've been following politics closely that I don't have a clear idea about the outcome. The few respectable polls in the country point to an election that is very much on the fence. Gun to my head, I'd guess Erdoğan and his allies lose the majority in the Parliament and the presidential race goes to a run-off, but Erdoğan ends up winning the run-off. I would not be surprised with any outcome, though.

As for İnce, he's good, I'll be voting for him. He's from a Kemalist background but has softened his stance on a lot of issues and has embraced a more social democratic platform in his campaign. That has been the case for his party, CHP, as a whole under the leadership of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Kılıçdaroğlu never quite got the crowds behind him though, because he's not much of a public speaker. That's İnce's strength. In terms of support in the run-off, it'll depend on the religious conservatives who don't support Erdoğan, really. The Kurds seem to be okay with the idea of supporting İnce in a run-off, as do a lot of the Turkish nationalists. An Islamic conservative party is allied with CHP for the parliamentary race, but whether they can convince their voters to vote for a secular social democrat over a religious conservative that they don't care for is questionable.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the insight. It's really hilarious to see German journalists struggling to find some ground for prediction, and some of them just openly admit that they can't tell us anything.

It would be truly remarkable if Erdoǧan lost and the constitutional changes would be reversed, all by democratic means. That would truly make Turkey a shining example of democracy, and although I know it's crazy, I'm willing to sustain my hope for that. A moderate Kemalism is probably the best thing that could happen right now, especially as I read that İnce has reached out to the Kurds. Of course, electoral campaigns and actual politics are two different things, but I suppose İnce is smart enough to follow up on his biggest promises.

I read somewhere that İnce's greatest feat is that he portrays himself as an average Turk who likes to drink a beer but also fasts on Ramadan. Is that so?
 
Perun said:
I read somewhere that İnce's greatest feat is that he portrays himself as an average Turk who likes to drink a beer but also fasts on Ramadan. Is that so?
Click to expand...

Yes. His mother and sister actually wear hijab and he has done an umrah visit to Meqqa years ago. At the same time, he's known as a staunch secularist who frequents fish restaurants that serve rakı, bars and as evidenced by the poetry book he wrote ages ago enjoys a bit of erotica-flavored poetry. Pro-Erdoğan crowd accuses him of playing to the conservative crowd by bringing up the conservative background of his family.

As for being an average Turk, he's very much that. He actually happens to be living in my neighborhood, in a flat that he recently bought. He even shops at the local supermarket that I frequently go to. Haven't seen him in person myself, but my parents have. He has claimed that he intends to keep living in that flat even if he's elected president.
 
İnce is currently speaking to a gathering of 5 million people in Istanbul and none of the major news channels are showing it live. A certain individual is also having a meeting at the same time so he's the one on there.
 
Perhaps people informing themselves solely via TV aren't his target audience.
 
@The Flash If İnce somehow wins the presidential election, either in the first round or in a runoff, do you reckon Erdoğan would find a way to cling on to power Mugabe-style? There seem to be a few parallels to Zimbabwe in Turkey at the moment: failing economy, strong man president in power for a long time, popular opponent but likely to be arrested. Is Erdoğan's wife VP?
 
Turkey isn't that far gone yet. This election might be the last exit before Turkey heads down that path. I'd say in the event of a loss, Erdoğan probably flees the country to avoid prosecution, probably goes to Sudan or something. Fleeing the country after leaving it in ruins is what his beloved late-Ottoman sultans did anyway, would be a nice tribute.

Erdoğan's wife isn't in politics, but his son-in-law is the Minister of Energy.
 
But in the event of near loss he could strike a no-persecution deal with opposition.
 
Erdoğan wins the presidency and his alliance wins the parliamentary majority. His party suffers in votes, but the allied nationalist party performs way above expectations and gets him the victory.

Having held the opinion that this was the final exit of our democracy, I have no hopes left. The only wish I have is to not see the wrath of oppression affecting our personal lifestyles. That, I am not entirely hopeful of, either.
 
Not a hair on my head ever thought Ince or anyone else could win. Even if he had more votes the results would have been mercilessly changed. They probably were changed. With so much persecution and lack of democracy, how can I have faith in this?

Only a huge mass rebellion, or another coup, can change matters. If that ever happens, it won't be without violence, I'm sorry to say. But it probably won't happen. The circus will meekly continue. The few critical media that are left will also be silenced until all Turkey becomes a one opinion state. More persecution is needed to completely eradicate opposition.
 
It's a shame. This could have been a triumph of democracy, but the result seems to be so strong that a fraud wasn't necessary, even if it took place.
 
Opposition candidates disappeared out of thin air after the results were confirmed, no speeches. İnce, Akşener and other candidates had previously stated that they'd do their utmost to prevent voting fraud. There were rumours of fraud in multiple places, but the candidates appeared to accept the loss. Speaker of CHP, İnce's party, said nothing but words asking for people to remain calm in his rambling post-election speech.

With pro-Erdoğan crowd celebrating on the streets by firing guns into the air and opposition people also on the streets waiting for the result, it is speculated that the response of the opposition came in order to avoid the outbreak of a massacre, which would then excalate into civil war. Only a speculation, but I will leave the judgment to you.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top