Or, alternately, at their very worst. This is what presidents do - they set the tone for the national conversation. Obama did a fantastic job of that last night. Love him, or hate him, he's a great man.
USA Politics
- Thread starter Genghis Khan
- Start date
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
LooseCannon said:
True, not a fan of his at all policy-wise, but he stepped it up last night and it is certainly not an accident he got to where he is now, I just hope he is where he is now only until Jan 20, 2013 and has a wonderful life and long in the private sector..
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
Palin could have done better for sure and it hurts her chances in 2012, I think this breathes life into Obama and shows him a possible path to the rest of the Presidency (above partison politics, which is pretty much what he ran as, but has not really governed as .. really the path Clinton took when he embraced some GOP ideas .. Welfare Reform as an example, but also portrayed himself as the sensible center and a brake to the left and right) ... I am not sure what it does on a party-level. This can also be really short lived.
The Tea Party itself, has really been around in many forms for some time and may go away as the Tea Party, but will be around as a voting block.
The Tea Party itself, has really been around in many forms for some time and may go away as the Tea Party, but will be around as a voting block.
Onhell
Infinite Dreamer
If you can find the entire memorial I'd recommend watching the whole thing.
In the mean time, I found this funny: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8idvGFgxLf8
In the mean time, I found this funny: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8idvGFgxLf8
It's a 2012 seat, isn't it? I don't know about that. Latino voters are making up more and more of the Texas electorate each day.
That being said, it's still not a likely Democratic pickup, but it might be a really interesting set of races in a few years.
That being said, it's still not a likely Democratic pickup, but it might be a really interesting set of races in a few years.
Nah, I don't think they'd win - but I do think it could be closer than expected (especially if the Dems run a strong candidate. If they can find one.)
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
maybe, they had a good candidate for governor eun against Rick Perry (and Perry is not a well loved politician by any stretch) and he got trounced ... The California GOP has the same problem as the Dems in Texas, with minimal office holders (mainly in the House), there is just not a good pool of battle tested people to run in a state-wide race.
Yep, it's like the GOP in Massachusetts or the Dems in Alabama. It's just one of those states. Still, unlike Alabama or Massachusetts, Texas has some changing demographics which can move it closer to going into play.
Well, it'll be a much more solid Democratic seat in Connecticut, unlike the hawkish Lieberman. It's an improvement for the Dems.
The "enthusiasm gap" that existed in 2010 is unlikely to exist in 2012 according to recent polls, which may mean the Democrats turn out a much larger number of voters, and Obama's favouritism rating is back to 50% with 59% saying he can handle the nation's challenges.
In other polling news, 54% of Americans think the economy is on the right track, 46% of Americans say that Obama's policies have helped (28% say they have hurt, the rest have no opinion/did not answer).
Interesting turn; the shoe may be on the other foot yet again.
Without looking at RCP or 438, here's how I score it:
Sure GOP Holds: Indiana (Lugar), Maine (Snowe), Mississippi (Wicker), Texas (whoever), Utah (Hatch), Wyoming (Barrasso)
Likely GOP Holds: Tennessee (Corker)
GOP in play: Massachusetts (Brown), Nevada (Ensign)
Dem in play: Missouri (McCaskill), Montana (Tester), North Dakota (whoever), Ohio (Brown), Virginia (Webb), Wisconsin (Kohl)
Likely Dem Holds: Florida (Nelson), Maryland (Cardin), Nebraska (Nelson), New Jersey (Menendez), Pennsylvania (Casey), West Virginia (Manchin)
Sure Dem Holds: California (Feinstein), Connecticut (whoever), Delaware (Carper), Hawaii (Akaka), Michigan (Stabenow), Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Mexico (Bingaman), New York (Gillibrand), Rhode Island (Whitehouse), Vermont (Sanders), Washington (Cantwell)
Missouri & North Dakota are guaranteed to flip, imo. Nevada could get picked up, especially if Ensign gets primaried out. Brown is probably safe as long as he keeps being a moderate in the fashion of Snowe and Collins. Webb is in the most danger of all the other Democratic Senators, but will benefit from Obama running like a boss in Virginia. I don't think Senate control is in play.
The "enthusiasm gap" that existed in 2010 is unlikely to exist in 2012 according to recent polls, which may mean the Democrats turn out a much larger number of voters, and Obama's favouritism rating is back to 50% with 59% saying he can handle the nation's challenges.
In other polling news, 54% of Americans think the economy is on the right track, 46% of Americans say that Obama's policies have helped (28% say they have hurt, the rest have no opinion/did not answer).
Interesting turn; the shoe may be on the other foot yet again.
Without looking at RCP or 438, here's how I score it:
Sure GOP Holds: Indiana (Lugar), Maine (Snowe), Mississippi (Wicker), Texas (whoever), Utah (Hatch), Wyoming (Barrasso)
Likely GOP Holds: Tennessee (Corker)
GOP in play: Massachusetts (Brown), Nevada (Ensign)
Dem in play: Missouri (McCaskill), Montana (Tester), North Dakota (whoever), Ohio (Brown), Virginia (Webb), Wisconsin (Kohl)
Likely Dem Holds: Florida (Nelson), Maryland (Cardin), Nebraska (Nelson), New Jersey (Menendez), Pennsylvania (Casey), West Virginia (Manchin)
Sure Dem Holds: California (Feinstein), Connecticut (whoever), Delaware (Carper), Hawaii (Akaka), Michigan (Stabenow), Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Mexico (Bingaman), New York (Gillibrand), Rhode Island (Whitehouse), Vermont (Sanders), Washington (Cantwell)
Missouri & North Dakota are guaranteed to flip, imo. Nevada could get picked up, especially if Ensign gets primaried out. Brown is probably safe as long as he keeps being a moderate in the fashion of Snowe and Collins. Webb is in the most danger of all the other Democratic Senators, but will benefit from Obama running like a boss in Virginia. I don't think Senate control is in play.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
A few comments on these
CT -- Foley ran a good statewide race for governor and may run for this seat, if the dems have a brutal primary and come out with a flawed candidate it could be competitive
HI -- Akaka may retire, if he does and Lingle runs, she would have a shot (she would have a better shot in a non-Presidential election, but still has a shot), she termed out os a popular governor.
NM -- Bingaman may retire, if he does, that seat is a toss-up
MI -- I would move to likely hold at this point and possibly in play depending on who the GOP puts up, MI has had a lot of turnover due to the bad economy, few people are safe there in state-wide elections unless the economy turns around big time there.
MN -- I would move that to likely Dem depending on the GOP candidate, the economy will play a role here as well, though not as much as MI.
CA -- is probably safe Dem even if Feinstein retires, with the right candidate, that could move to the likely column, but odds are it is safe Dem.
RI -- could be likely to in play depending on who the GOP puts up and the state has a history of strong independant candidates that can split the vote.
ME -- could be a big problem for the GOP if Snow gets primaried out, there is certain to be a challenge from the right
IN -- Lugar will also face a primary challenge from the right, but he should fend it off
UT -- Hatch will have a primary challenge (ala Bennett last election), but it is still a GOP in most any case.
CT -- Foley ran a good statewide race for governor and may run for this seat, if the dems have a brutal primary and come out with a flawed candidate it could be competitive
HI -- Akaka may retire, if he does and Lingle runs, she would have a shot (she would have a better shot in a non-Presidential election, but still has a shot), she termed out os a popular governor.
NM -- Bingaman may retire, if he does, that seat is a toss-up
MI -- I would move to likely hold at this point and possibly in play depending on who the GOP puts up, MI has had a lot of turnover due to the bad economy, few people are safe there in state-wide elections unless the economy turns around big time there.
MN -- I would move that to likely Dem depending on the GOP candidate, the economy will play a role here as well, though not as much as MI.
CA -- is probably safe Dem even if Feinstein retires, with the right candidate, that could move to the likely column, but odds are it is safe Dem.
RI -- could be likely to in play depending on who the GOP puts up and the state has a history of strong independant candidates that can split the vote.
ME -- could be a big problem for the GOP if Snow gets primaried out, there is certain to be a challenge from the right
IN -- Lugar will also face a primary challenge from the right, but he should fend it off
UT -- Hatch will have a primary challenge (ala Bennett last election), but it is still a GOP in most any case.
CT - I don't think Foley is going to have a chance - pretty sure that in a presidential year, Connecticut is safe Dem. Look at who they ran this year, in a GOP year, and he won by 12 points - after lying about seeing combat in Vietnam. GOP didn't have the strongest candidate, but not bad either.
HI - Excellent point on Lingle. Akaka is definitely very popular personally which has helped his electoral margins. However, with Obama on the ticket, it's just tough for her to win in Hawaii (given that he's from there). If Akaka goes and the Dems put up a flawed candidate, it could be in play - highly unlikely, though.
NM - I'm not sure if Bingaman retiring puts this in play, but it would move it at least one category. NM is a swing state that has been more strongly Democrat in recent years. Their governor is now with a decent margin, but Bill Richardson was gov. there for awhile, and his own popularity hit may have affected the seat. Without Bingaman, I think we'd need to see who's nominated and polling before picking this one. Definitely could be a really, really interesting race!
MI - That's a fair point, and Stabenow isn't as popular as I had thought (remember, I was giving first impressions). However, Michigan is a fairly Democratic (read: pro-labour) state and Stabenow will drive around reminding everyone how the federal government saved GM/Chrysler. She should only lose this if she really fucks up.
MN - The biggest problem with moving MN to likely is that there aren't any strong GOP state-wide candidates, unless Coleman decides to run again (which is possible). Psycho-crazy-nuts has made waves about going state-wide, but she'd get trounced.
CA - wholeheartedly agree. However, Feinstein's already said she's running. Someone else (from any party) will get this Senate seat when they pry it from her cold, dead hands.
RI - I can honestly say that any Republican who has a shot in RI in an election year is going to be somewhere more liberal than Ben Nelson - IE, Lincoln Chafee (who is currently governor of RI), is pro-choice, pro-gays, anti-death penalty, anti-drill baby drill, anti-Iraq, anti-tax cuts, pro-gun control...I mean, the guy reads like Teddy Kennedy. That's why he went Independent. It doesn't matter who wins here, Obama will likely be able to count on their vote more than Brown, Collins, Kirk, and Snowe.
ME - Snowe already has a challenger. The real race will be in the primary. However, Snowe is very popular, and so is Collins, who will surely campaign for Snowe. The Tea Party could eek out a win here, and possibly give the seat to the Dems in a competitive, Nevada-style race. One to watch, but if Snowe is nominated, she wins with 70%+.
IN - Agreed. Safe seat.
UT - Agreed. Safe seat.
HI - Excellent point on Lingle. Akaka is definitely very popular personally which has helped his electoral margins. However, with Obama on the ticket, it's just tough for her to win in Hawaii (given that he's from there). If Akaka goes and the Dems put up a flawed candidate, it could be in play - highly unlikely, though.
NM - I'm not sure if Bingaman retiring puts this in play, but it would move it at least one category. NM is a swing state that has been more strongly Democrat in recent years. Their governor is now with a decent margin, but Bill Richardson was gov. there for awhile, and his own popularity hit may have affected the seat. Without Bingaman, I think we'd need to see who's nominated and polling before picking this one. Definitely could be a really, really interesting race!
MI - That's a fair point, and Stabenow isn't as popular as I had thought (remember, I was giving first impressions). However, Michigan is a fairly Democratic (read: pro-labour) state and Stabenow will drive around reminding everyone how the federal government saved GM/Chrysler. She should only lose this if she really fucks up.
MN - The biggest problem with moving MN to likely is that there aren't any strong GOP state-wide candidates, unless Coleman decides to run again (which is possible). Psycho-crazy-nuts has made waves about going state-wide, but she'd get trounced.
CA - wholeheartedly agree. However, Feinstein's already said she's running. Someone else (from any party) will get this Senate seat when they pry it from her cold, dead hands.
RI - I can honestly say that any Republican who has a shot in RI in an election year is going to be somewhere more liberal than Ben Nelson - IE, Lincoln Chafee (who is currently governor of RI), is pro-choice, pro-gays, anti-death penalty, anti-drill baby drill, anti-Iraq, anti-tax cuts, pro-gun control...I mean, the guy reads like Teddy Kennedy. That's why he went Independent. It doesn't matter who wins here, Obama will likely be able to count on their vote more than Brown, Collins, Kirk, and Snowe.
ME - Snowe already has a challenger. The real race will be in the primary. However, Snowe is very popular, and so is Collins, who will surely campaign for Snowe. The Tea Party could eek out a win here, and possibly give the seat to the Dems in a competitive, Nevada-style race. One to watch, but if Snowe is nominated, she wins with 70%+.
IN - Agreed. Safe seat.
UT - Agreed. Safe seat.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
You are probably right about CT. Though, I think NM is a toss-up (obviously the eventual candidates will matter) if Bingham retires, they just elected a GOP governor by a fairly decent margin. The other factor that will be important is the nature of the Presidential race.
If the economy improves and Obama can get the young people to vote like they did in 2008, it will be a strong Dem year, however if the economy is still poor, the GOP nominates most anyone but Palin and Obama has alientated the left and they stay home/vote Green (even a few percent of them), this could swing it strongly to the GOP. The "Enthusiasm Gap" will be very important.
If the economy improves and Obama can get the young people to vote like they did in 2008, it will be a strong Dem year, however if the economy is still poor, the GOP nominates most anyone but Palin and Obama has alientated the left and they stay home/vote Green (even a few percent of them), this could swing it strongly to the GOP. The "Enthusiasm Gap" will be very important.
Onhell
Infinite Dreamer
Sorry to interrupt, but I was given this link about the "The Tucson Shooter," from the perspective of the courtroom sketch artist, The article is rather straightforward and boring, but the youtube video is interesting: http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/arizona/article_6bb05b78-202c-11e0-b4df-001cc4c03286.html/
bearfan said:
I was reading a recent poll, I think on www.politicalwire.com (my favourite US political site, highly recommended, the author is fair, the comments are skewed), that suggests the Dems and Reps have very very similar statistics currently. It'll be interesting to see how that develops. Obama's popularity is bouncing upwards now. If he governs well this term...