So if Roe v. Wade is actually overturned, as it now appears it will be, it will be interesting to see what all the short- and long-term effects on the U.S. political landscape will be.
First, on the merits: while I have no issue with abortion prior to viability outside the womb, and it certainly seems crass and un-American to remove a right that people have held for multiple decades, I also have to say that the original Roe decision hinged on a pretty audacious interpretation of the 14th amendment, so there is a credible argument to be made that it was decided incorrectly on the legal merits the first time around. So while I may not personally like the outcome of a reversal, it may actually be the technically correct legal decision.
Anyhoo, in the short term this suddenly makes the midterm elections way more interesting at both the federal and state levels. Any refederalization of abortion rights would now require an act of congress, which would mean both killing the filibuster and having a majority of pro-choice members in the Senate (which would not include Joe Manchin), and that would require Democratic gains in at least the Senate to even become possible. Of course, even if they achieved this then you’d see federal abortion law flip-flop every time one party got control of the presidency and both houses of congress (another reason to not kill the filibuster for general legislation), so realistically this would become a matter for the states long term.
With Republicans locking down an ever-increasing number of state legislatures, this might create a real problem for them in larger red states with big cities. Suddenly a lot of people would have a pretty compelling reason to vote against them — but will they? Purple states are likely to lean more blue after this, but for “light red” states it’s hard to say.
Unfortunately, I think a more likely long-term outcome of this is more left-leaning folks leaving red states where state law continues to become more and more reactionary. If this effect is pronounced over time, it could lead to a permanent Republican majority in the Senate as they fully lock in a large number of smaller states. The House would be more evenly divided, but if the filibuster is killed in the Senate, good luck getting anything accomplished nationally if you’re not a Republican.
Or maybe this will be a wake-up call and all those left-leaning people who don’t bother to vote will start getting off their duffs and doing something about it, assuming new Republican laws haven’t already kicked them off the voting rolls. But I’m not holding my breath.