I have the feeling that the setlist will not be overall the same as last year, just as stated by many people. To me it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense doing the same tour kinda twice. Even if they play some countries this years that they haven't visited last year. By surprising us all with TFP in 2023, they raised the bar by themselves, and more than that, the announced gap year of 2027 hints that there should be interesting changes. I'm sure they don't wanna be recalled as "the lazy band" in terms of their setlist when coming back from the break. That's why I think a good third of the songs from 2025 will be swapped this year. Also, IMHO, the total absence of a new album kinda forces them to set at least some interesting acents in terms of the songs they choose to play live. No new album PLUS basically the same setlist would label them being kinda lazy, and I guess that's not what they want.
And one more point: If they are planning to record #18 (IF!), then they should have a strong interest in getting Simon into the band as effectively as possible - and the best way to do that is through a diverse range of songs.