Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by CriedWhenBrucieLeft, Jun 22, 2016.
I don't understand what you're asking Foro.
Watch the 118 or so Tory MPs who voted against this deal, say they have confidence in May and her government.
Rees Mogg has said he'll vote in favour of the government, even though he put in a letter of NC in her leadership back in November. Slimy party politics, nothing more. What else could I expect really from the Tories?
I'm sure Labour would do the same if it meant risking a Conservative government.
How is May or anyone else going to make people vote for a Brexit deal, when they just voted against this one. Hard to see a big change in numbers, since the deal cannot be made (much) better. Maybe I'm wrong here, but we'll see.
Exactly she's fucked. Rees-Mogg and his crowd of Tories, the DUP and Corbyn are all hard brexit at all costs but are trying to engineer a situation whereby it looks like there's no choice but hard brexit rather than having the balls to campaign for hard brexit outright. Doesn't matter a damn what deal is made, the no deal-ites have the numbers in this parliament to block anything.
Calling that snap election was probably the stupidest thing that she could have done.
You're right, as far as I know. She has a few days to come back to parliament with a plan B but the Attorney General told parliament yesterday that "plan B is plan A" - they can't get anything more from the EU. Theresa will start to reach out to "senior parliamentarians from all parties" after she presumably wins the no confidence vote but it stinks of "too little, too late". She should have done this a long time ago to have a chance at a majority in parliament. However, it's likely that any deal she presented would have lost anyway. Labour would vote against it to force a general election, and the Liberal Democrats and SNP want to prevent Brexit all together.
Not correct. Corbyn wants to remain in the customs union and maintain a closer relationship with the EU i.e. a softer Brexit. There is no majority in parliament for a No Deal, or anything that enables Brexit at all in fact.
It was a dumb move, and that became clear before we voted as the Conservative manifesto was shit and it turned out that Theresa May can't campaign but Jeremy Corbyn has been speaking to people on the streets for his entire political career. Even if she kept David Cameron's majority then this deal would not have passed the "meaningful vote" due to the staggering number of Conservative MPs who voted against it.
This was about more than the lack of a majority government - it was her failure to involve other parties in preliminary discussions to get a deal that satisfied enough MPs. Although the EU was probably never in a position to give the government such a deal.
Devastating news, shit just got real.
I am afraid that some of his traditional socialist policies would unlikely be feasible maintaining a closer relationship with the EU.
Indeed, which is why he's always been critical of the EU and is reluctant to call for a second referendum. I think EU legislation prevents full scale nationalization of public service which Jezza is obsessed with. I keep on hearing about the customs union from Labour MPs though, but there's not a consistent message from them. Jezza and John McDonnell (Shadow Chancellor) seem to say different things quite often.
Correct, and this is one of the reasons why many socialist people voted for Brexit.
Apparently DUP and Plaid Cymru are in discussions to back the Conservatives. SNP was rumoured to be backing the Conservatives but that seemed dumb and they're loudly declaring on Twitter that they have "no confidence in this government".
322 MPs need to vote to bring down the government (normally 325 but Sinn Fein members don't take their seats).
There are 256 Labour + 35 SNPs + 11 Lib-Dems. Unless a bunch of backbenchers bail, the government seems unlikely to fall.
Plaid Cymru signed the No Confidence motion with Jeremy Corbyn. They would never back the Conservatives. As for the DUP, Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds have been very clear that the DUP will support the government as they have no interest in seeing Jeremy Corbyn become PM. A former Labour MP who now sits as an independent has said he won't back the motion as he voted in favour of a No Confidence motion in Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader (which JC lost heavily) a couple of years ago - but that doesn't mean he will support the government.
May has won by 325 to 306, a margin of only 19. But the Conservatives remain in power
The 10 DUP seats would have swung it so that is indeed a fine margin
Michael Gove, who I am no fan of, gave a very impressive, impassioned speech in defence of the PM and attacking Jeremy Corbyn. I agreed with much of what he said about Jezza and his views on national security. Shame that Gove also happens to be a wanker, especially after his "we're tired of experts" comment.
The mayhem (no pun intended) we're seeing now, with Labour suggesting a second referendum, shows that holding the first one - the way it was held - was an ill-advised decision. You basically had the choice between status quo and a bunch of unknown options all lumped underr the "Leave" umbrella.
In retrospect, would it not have been better to plan for two referendums in the first place? Among those who voted leave, I'm sure there are many who consider remain a better option than "hard" brexit, and they voted leave because they thought a good deal could be made. Of course, there are those who want a hard Brexit too .. but I think saying "brexit is brexit, leave is leave" oversimplifies the issue. And shows that a referendum is not necessarily a good idea when the options are not clear.
So, if another referendum is held, will it just be "Heavy Brexit or no Brexit at all" or will "Negotiated Brexit" be thrown in as a third option, i.e. accepting May's deal with the EU?
This would never get old...
A second referendum would be an absolute disaster for all involved, the possible outcome are:
1) leave win again, equals a waste of time
or 2) Remain win. UK are still in the EU but don't want to be there at best, at worst it kicks off in the UK with Jo Cox type scenarios.
EDIT: guff point deleted, not sure what I thought I was on about!
The only reason to do another referendum is to ask about May's negotiated Brexit vs. hard Brexit. You could do a two part one:
Question 1: Should the United Kingdom complete the process of exiting the European Union?
Yes - exit the European Union (Brexit)
No - remain with the European Union (No Brexit)
Question 2: Should exiting the European Union be preferred on the previous question, do you support the Negotiated Exit Agreement of Whatever Date (The May agreement) or severing all ties (Hard Brexit)?
1. The May Agreement
2. Hard Brexit
Separate names with a comma.