Is it time for way too early speculation about the next two major elections? I'll start with 2026 as I've been thinking about this a lot since the special election last month.
I think the House is pretty much gone for the GOP, which is no big surprise really. It is very rare for the president's party to keep the house after the midterms. The interesting thing though is going to be margins and whether gerrymandering will have an impact. With the current map (and a lot is still in litigation), there aren't a lot of swing districts. I think last I looked a "wave" environment for democrats would net something like 20 seats, which is a comfortable enough majority but wouldn't be an over-performance and doesn't point to democrats winning the senate or a major political sea change beyond the usual case of independents punishing the party in power. On the flip side, there has been some wild generic ballot polling showing up to a D+13 environment which would be landslide territory and put the Senate in play. It would be the biggest wave we've seen in the Trump era (I'm talking every cycle since 2016). I don't believe that this is going to pan out, that is a massive shift, but if it's in the ballpark Republicans are seriously in trouble. This polling combined with Democrats overperforming last month, and in particular seeing young voters and latinos snap back, makes me think that netting 30 - 40 seats isn't impossible. If the economy continues to crumble and Trump's approval keeps tanking it starts to seem more feasible.
That brings us to the Senate. It's a bad map for Democrats frankly, but here's where things sit, from safest D to more competitive:
Open seats in MN and NH, the Democrats will win these.
Open seat in Michigan, it's a state Trump won in 2024 but I doubt Democrats will lose here either.
Ossoff (D) being reelected in Georgia, this is the first one that could be competitive and a lot will depend on who runs against Ossoff. The biggest threat is Governor Kemp, but I don't think he's going to run. It seems like Republicans are going to run into the same problem they had in 2022, which is qualified and high quality Republican candidates like Kemp won't have interest in running to be in a dysfunctional government body for a lame duck president. Ultimately I think Ossoff is fairly safe based on what we've seen so far in specials.
Maine: Technically this shouldn't be past Georgia on the competitive spectrum since it's the only state with a Republican senator that Harris won, but Susan Collins has proven to be formidable. This is a must win race and I think a lot of it is going to come down to recruiting the right candidate. I don't love anybody who is in the primary right now, but ultimately they just need to run whoever best speaks to Maine voters. Frankly, if Democrats can't win this race, they have serious problems.
North Carolina: Another Trump state but one that has elected democrats, notable a D governor in 2024 despite also voting for Trump. This is an open race and Roy Cooper is running, so in a strong D environment I actually think he can win this one handily.
The problem for Democrats is that even if they win all of these races, that still puts them two seats shy of a majority, which means they need to win two states that Trump won three times. I think it's doable, but only in play if we see a bigger wave than 2018. Not outside the realm of possibility, but it's a tall order. Here's where I think they have potential:
Ohio: Frankly you can put this one in the must win category, I don't think there's a Senate majority without Ohio. They have Sherrod Brown running who has been Senator in Ohio before and has a recognizable brand. Ohio continues to be more out of reach for Democrats but in the right national environment it could be in play.
Texas: Texas has gone from a Democratic fantasy to a state that they actually need to become competitive in if they want to be able to win national elections. By 2030, with new census data and redrawing of electoral maps, Democrats will not be able to win the presidency without being competitive in Texas (or Florida). That's all to say that Texas should be a priority this cycle both because it could lead to a senate majority and because it needs to be in play for 2028.
Iowa: Open seat, decent college population, similar to Ohio it could flip in the right environment but it's a long shot and I'm not seeing it right now.
After that you're looking at places like Alaska and Florida, so it really comes down imo to Ohio and Texas (and in that scenario Iowa probably flips as well). It's not great but it's possible.
