USA Politics

LooseCannon said:
John Roberts hates Trump, and we've already seen that the three Trump appointees to the Supreme Court do not feel beholden to him (in the truest conservative position of "fuck you Jack, I got mine"). Thomas and Alito are the ones most likely to support him. But I wouldn't be surprised if they rule along lines similar to Minnesota, in that the primary is a private election, somehow, despite being run by the state. I also wouldn't be surprised if they issued an order noting that in the case of a conviction under certain statutes, he would be barred from office under the 14th Amendment.
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Like or dislike is kind of irrelevant in the SCOTUS case or at least it should be, justices carry or should carry a weight so whatever they vote it should’t be based on partisanship and whether they like Trump or not but rather if this case has any legal base.
And I am not sure what is worst for American democracy in the long term to vote yes or not.
 
____no5 said:
Like or dislike is kind of irrelevant in the SCOTUS case or at least it should be, justices carry or should carry a weight so whatever they vote it should’t be based on partisanship and whether they like Trump or not but rather if this case has any legal base.
And I am not sure what is worst for American democracy in the long term to vote yes or not.
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Noble sentiment, but clearly not how the current SCOTUS operates. It is valid to point out their biases, because they've shown that these influence their rulings.
 
Jer said:
www.nbcnews.com

Jan. 6 rioters the far right claimed were antifa keep getting unmasked as Trump supporters

Misinformation about the Capitol attack continues to go viral on the right, but the claims are slowly getting debunked, federal case by federal case.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
Too bad Fox News, OAN, et al., will never point this out to their audiences.
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I find it particularly interesting what these followers might be thinking. Imagine participating in a riot like that, for a cause you believe in, even losing your life in the case of Ashli Babbitt, and not only does your side not back you; they disown you and paint you as antifa and being a false flag by the opposition.

I don't feel bad for them though. We are talking about adults who made their choices. Classic case of FAFO.
 
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Right now I'm thinking SCOTUS will allow it by stating that they have no jurisdiction over state elections and primary elections aren't constitutional anyway so they aren't going to rule on it (i.e. the way they have handled partisan gerrymandering). It gives enough wiggle room as to not create a landmark ruling on elections or the 14th amendment and they can attempt to appear apolitical.

If this extends to the general election and is allowed to stand, I believe it eliminates the possibility of a tied electoral college (something that was a not too far outside possibility in 2020).
 
Going into 2024 feels like the calm before the storm, like leading up to the resolution of a massive cliffhanger. So far we have:

- Multiple cases at the Supreme Court challenging Trump's immunity to prosecution and whether he is even eligible to run for president.
- A GOP primary that appears like a done deal, but lots of possible freak situations.
- Polls that suggest the most competitive presidential election since 2000.

The funny thing is, I feel that the most likely outcome is also the most "boring". Trump will almost certainly be the GOP nominee and will probably avoid jail time as well, but I would put (slight) money on Biden winning the general election (call it 75/25). The most interesting thing in here will be Trump being convicted of a felony, which I find much more likely than what most people seem to be anticipating. I would give this over a 90% chance with the only real (and still unlikely) obstacle being if SCOTUS forces these cases to be thrown out.

I take Trump very seriously as a candidate, given our electoral system he will always be a couple percentage points away from being president again, but I think there’s a lot of noise in the polling that is making this election really hard to gauge. For one thing, it’s a unique situation where Biden and Trump are both at their ceilings of support, they are not going to gain voters relative to 2020 but there is plenty of room for them to lose voters. That said, people aren’t happy about Biden and I think they are telling pollsters they would vote for Trump as a generic Republican not realizing that Trump really is going to be the nominee (imo this is not common knowledge for the average American). When the convention happens and Trump is in general election mode, I expect a lot of disgruntled Biden voters to come home to Biden (particularly young voters and black voters, who are breaking for Trump pretty heavily in the crosstabs). The current numbers are suggesting a Trump blowout that I think is just unrealistic (he can still win, but it's not going to be by +2 or +3 in the popular vote).

With that being said, I think the sentiment that people want to vote for someone besides Biden is very real and it is bizarre to me that Trump has such a strong hold over the Republican party that they are once again going to potentially throw away an election because they're afraid of Trump supporters. IMO if you make Hayley the nominee, +2 or +3 becomes closer to the floor for her support. Given the chance to vote for a major party candidate besides Trump or Biden, I believe the people responding to these polls will take it. On the other hand, Trump might eek out a victory, or he will lose by a similar margin to 2020 or worse if and when he is convicted for felonies. It just seems like a no brainer for me, but what do I know, I'm not voting republican in 2024.

Hayley still has a narrow path I think, but ultimately the party establishment as a whole lacks the organization to make it happen (it would be very similar to how Biden pulled off his nomination with the help of party elites). I think 2nd place in Iowa is looking like a close enough possibility and she can absolutely win New Hampshire. IMO if these two things happen, the paradigm of the race will shift. Personally, I don't want her to become president but I think Trump as the party nominee in 2024 is so dangerous that I would rather see Hayley blow out Biden than see Trump lose a close race leading to worse political violence than what we saw on January 6 2021.
 
Chris Christie is out. If his supporters go to Hayley, this could put her over the edge in NH.
 
Mosh said:
I would rather see Hayley blow out Biden than see Trump lose a close race leading to worse political violence than what we saw on January 6 2021.
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If Trump survives, don’t you think he would win the Presidency?
Otherwise why all this unprecedented lawfare storm? They would have just let Biden smoke him, but obviously confidence is low.
 
____no5 said:
If Trump survives, don’t you think he would win the Presidency?
Otherwise why all this unprecedented lawfare storm? They would have just let Biden smoke him, but obviously confidence is low.
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“Lawfare” is a bullshit pejorative term, and who the fuck are “they”?

Trump brazenly and repeatedly broke the law before, during, and after his presidency, and in this country (at least in theory) no one is above the law. He’s been investigated like anyone else would have been. A supermajority of a grand jury of his peers had to agree that he was more likely guilty than not for every single one of the counts he was indicted for before the indictments could move forward. The various government entities now have to successfully make their cases in court, just as they would for anyone else.

If you’re talking about ballot exclusion, that’s right there in the Constitution and the only unique aspect here is that it’s never been applied to a presidential candidate before because we’ve never had a presidential candidate who incited an insurrection before. Trump will get a full hearing in court for any exclusions he chooses to challenge.

This is the U.S. system working as intended, more or less. Trump should have been convicted in the Senate and had his ability to hold office removed there, but since there weren’t enough Republicans willing to put country above party (just like there weren’t enough Democrats to do the same with Bill Clinton), it’s falling to 14th Amendment exclusion instead. The civil and criminal cases would have happened regardless, even if Trump had been convicted and excluded from holding office during his second impeachment, because they’re separate concerns.
 
Jer said:
“Lawfare” is a bullshit pejorative term, and who the fuck are “they”?
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I don’t think so it’s exactly what happens.

IMG_1875.jpeg

They = those who “grinding us down” as described in The Clansman and those who described as “them” in Be Quick or Be Dead.
:p

You're no longer part of the System. You're above the System. Over it. Beyond it. We're "them." We're "they." We are the Men in Black.
 
____no5 said:
I don’t think so it’s exactly what happens.

img_1875-jpeg.33162
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Like I said, a bullshit pejorative term. Unless someone can prove that the legal system is actually being weaponized (which would require corrupting a supermajority of multiple grand juries across multiple state and federal jurisdictions which are made up of everyday citizens, not to mention all the people in the prosecutorial chain of command who would also have to be corrupt), then this is just empty propaganda for whatever asshole is currently in the hot seat, and you’re helping to spread it.
 
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