USA Politics

I'm going to stand by my pre-election prediction that Democrats will win NV barely.
So another interesting angle on the 2022 election is how election deniers have done in the Secretary Of State races (to determine the person that will be in charge of elections in 2024 in each state).

MA - Rayla Campbell - LOST to William Galvin by 39.7%
VT - H. Brooke Paige - LOST to Sarah Copeland Hanzas by 30%
MI - Kristina Karamo - LOST to Jocelyn Benson by 14%
CT - Dominic Rapini - LOST to Stephanie Thomas by 11.9%
NM - Audrey Trujillo - LOST to Maggie Toulouse Oliver by 11.8%
MN - Kim Crockett - LOST to Steve Simon by 9.2%

AZ - Mark Finchem - NOT CALLED YET, currently behind by 4.8%

NV - Jim Marchant - NOT CALLED YET, currently ahead by 1%

IN - Diego Morales - WON by 14.4%
AL - Wes Allen - WON by 34.8%
WY - Chuck Gray - WON, running unopposed

Deniers got trounced in all Democratic-leaning states, and will probably lose AZ, but might pull one out in NV. In deep red states they won big, to no one's surprise.

Also, Brad Raffensperger won in GA, so although he's a Republican, we know he won't cave to pressure from Trump. And the other Republicans who won Secretary Of State positions aren't on record as being election deniers, AFAIK.

This is great news, because aside from Nevada (possibly), we can have some confidence that no one is going to screw with the 2024 elections from this angle in a way that could affect the outcome.
That's excellent news. I was looking for a summary of that earlier and there wasn't one. Thanks for posting it.

I read an analysis that suggests that there's enough remaining Democratic votes to pull Cortez ahead in NV. So that'd be 51-49, which unfortunately still allows Sinema and Manchin to work together to be shitheads.
There’s a lot to digest with this election but I’m surprised there isn’t more talk about the upcoming battle for speaker of the house. If I was part of the democratic leadership I would be searching for some Republican crossovers to make Liz Cheney speaker.
So far my predictions weren’t too off. PA and NV went for Dems and it looks like we could be getting the slimmest house majority in US history (it could be as little as one seat, which would be wild). I’m torn on what happens with Georgia. My inkling is that if it isn’t going to decide the senate, the party isn’t going to waste money on Herschel Walker. They’re better off holding out for Brian Kemp to run for senate there and they also have a favorable map in 2024. We’ll see though.

I’m not that surprised about NV. It was always going to be a close race and democrats just have a stronger organization there than in a lot of other swing states. It’s always a question mark and it always ends up tilting toward the dem, even in 2016.

In a weird way, I think these results are even better for democrats than 2020. This is a historical over performance and it seems largely thanks to the gen z vote canceling out the boomer vote. If this demographic favors Democrats as strongly as the results suggest, the GOP has a real existential problem.

It’s also very bad for Trump. In 2020 the election denying prevented the typical post-election autopsy that a losing party would normally conduct. That plus Trump beating his polls again, the Republican gains in the house and nearly holding the Senate made the 2020 takeaway murkier. 2022 was a resounding rejection of Trumpism and also confirmation of what many had previously suspected: DeSantis is the way forward.
Problem for the GOP with the assessment that DeSantis is the new head guy is that Trump will do everything in his power to kneecap him. I could see him gladly willing to run to split the vote.

DeSantis is a stronger candidate than Trump, but a DeSantis run guarantees a Democrat victory.
Not sure what Democrats did right, but GOP deserved to be kicked big time. They've been almost a threat to democracy since at least when Antonin Scalia died.
Trump being able to get away with it after Capitol? Not just the assault but denying of electoral vote itself alone, should erase him any prospect to re-run with them. The fact that he still reigns inside the party just shows how spineless GOP has become. There are no values, only holding the power that matters.
I hope everyone who supported Trump will be cancelled, including those who did it for "the greater good of the party" as McConnell.

I mean the guy wrote the playbook of performing a governmental coup d'etat in United States, by far the strongest democracy in the World. And if this time he was unsuccessful, the playbook is now there for a future Authoritarian to exploit.
After the election is evident that Greg Stillson, if you know what I mean, is the thing of the past. He has lost.
After the election is evident that Greg Stillson, if you know what I mean, is the thing of the past. He has lost.

Yeah... which means the next president will be Ron DeSantis, and trust me, we'll be wanting Trump back when that happens.
So the two previously uncalled races for Secretary Of State with election deniers in the running have now been called, and the deniers lost in both cases. Finchem in AZ and Marchant in NV both lost by 5.6% in the end. That makes it a clean sweep for democracy in all but the reddest of states, where the outcome wouldn’t have been affected anyway. Hallelujah.
btw worth noting that a GOP house still isn’t a foregone conclusion. Dems are probably guaranteed 213 seats and need 218 to win. There are five tossups, meaning they need to win all five to maintain the house. It’s a tall order but not impossible.
Practically anyone’s better than Abbott, though.
Of course, but I never understood the supposed appeal of Beto -- he always struck me as a lightweight. And you have to wonder how much lasting damage he did to the Democrats with his "Hell yes, we're coming for your guns!" line, all in the pursuit of self-aggrandizement.
I liked 2018 Beto and that was about it. I think it speaks to problems with the Democratic Party in Texas that they can’t find a better candidate than someone who has now lost three elections in a row, including one where he really could have been more competitive (2018). It doesn’t seem like they have much of a bench there.
Of course, but I never understood the supposed appeal of Beto -- he always struck me as a lightweight. And you have to wonder how much lasting damage he did to the Democrats with his "Hell yes, we're coming for your guns!" line, all in the pursuit of self-aggrandizement.
Great line to appeal to progressives, but, Texas is a light purple state at best. Not a winning strategy there.
I didn’t mind so much the guns comment. Democrats have a problem with not having any convictions and it ends up making a lot of them seem inauthentic. On the other side, republicans say crazy shit all the time and it gets their base fired up. The problem is that this is the only area where 2020/22 Beto seemed genuine. His senate run was cool because he was talking to his constituents and seemed like he was genuinely trying to work for them. It made him seem unique. Now it just seems like a vanity project.
Welp. Biden (or whoever will run in his place) probably just won 2024.

Too soon to tell*

Here's Allan Lichtman's check list: If five or fewer of the following statements are false, the Democrats will win the election. Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcomes of all presidential elections since 1984 except 2000, when he predicted Gore. :ninja:
  1. Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
*Previous Presidential 13 keys analysis shows that Covid +George Floyd, both unpredictable, both during the last year of the Presidency, burnt Trump.