USA Politics

There's a decent chance of a tie, somewhere around 5-6%, which is something Nate Silver has looked at in a recent post. I think it'd be interesting to see what the fallout is.

Polls show Obama within 2 points in Arizona. That, alone, is bad news for the Republicans, but seems to confirm the shift in demographics the state is seeing. Curious to see what the margin will be there on election night.
 
There was one poll from Behavior Research center that showed Obama +2, never heard of that poll, but it seems way out of line with other polling. PPP, which is considered a Dem polling firm had Romney +9 in a poll taken in early October, that is probably the better one to look at.
 
Obama is more lengaged this time around, but it looks headed for a draw to a close win for one or the other. Which I think is pretty much a win for Romney, he is performing the same as he did the last debate, Obama is bringing out his inner Biden.
 
Agreed, Obama looks much better. Got downright prickly about Libya and (with the help of the moderator) turned the whole "act of terror" debate about what he said in the Rose Garden against Romney, which was a lost opportunity for Romney and gave Obama a credibility edge. Romney was better on energy and jobs/business, yet remains troublingly vague about his tax plan. Romney also seemed to get the better of the debate on the immigration issues, Obama got the better of it on assault rifles--but frankly I care much less about those issues (I'm not exactly on top of the immigration status of the folks working in our yard on a weekly basis).
 
CNN Post-Debate Poll Questions:

Who did the debate make you more likely to vote for?
Obama: 25%
Romney: 25%
Neither: 48%

Who seemed to be a stronger leader?
Obama: 46%
Romney: 49%

Who was more likeable?
Obama: 47%
Romney: 41%

Who spent more time attacking his opponent?
Obama: 49%
Romney: 35%

Who seemed to care more about audience members?
Obama: 44%
Romney: 40%

Who answered questions more directly?
Obama: 43%
Romney: 45%
 
Starting to think Romney will actually win this, polls keep moving in his direction. Gallup has him opening a pretty good lead (7 pts). FL, NC, and VA are looking solid. He is only down 3 or 4 in MI, slightly ahead in CO, Obama's lead in Iowa, NH, and NV are essentially gone and OH looks like Obama is slowly losing groung, but still ahead. PA is getting closer as well. In odd news, Obama purchased a small media buy in MN.

Forgot WI, it is about a dead heat now. One poll has Romney plus 1
 
I tend to think even the Foreign Policy debate will be more domestic issues (energy and jobs), though certainly Libya, Syria, Afghanistan will come up. This election will primarily be decided on domestic issues and I am sure both candidates will try their best to get that in as much as possible.
 
bearfan said:
I tend to think even the Foreign Policy debate will be more domestic issues (energy and jobs), though certainly Libya, Syria, Afghanistan will come up. This election will primarily be decided on domestic issues and I am sure both candidates will try their best to get that in as much as possible.
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Iran. Nukes.

Most important issue in the entire election, in my view. If Iran gets nuclear capability I envision a nuclear attack by someone in the next 5-10 years. Maybe by Israel. Maybe against Israel. Maybe by terrorists. Maybe on US soil.
 
Cornfed Hick said:
Iran. Nukes.

Most important issue in the entire election, in my view. If Iran gets nuclear capability I envision a nuclear attack by someone in the next 5-10 years. Maybe by Israel. Maybe against Israel. Maybe by terrorists. Maybe on US soil.
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Good point, I am sure that will be asked as well ...
 
I don't think Iran will ever get nuclear capability. Obama is a hawk, whether or not he likes to admit it (and he doesn't, not when his Dems are so full of doves), and so is Romney. I actually find myself wondering which of them is more hawkish in real life, as I don't believe anything either of them says on the subject. Anyway, if Iran gets close, Israel (with close US support) will strike Iran and take out whatever they need to take out.

I don't believe Iran should be allowed to have nuclear capability.
 
I pretty much agree, there is not much differencr between the two on Foreign Policy. I imagine this will be the least watched of the 3 debates. Beyond being a less important topic in this election according to polls, Monday Night Football and Game 7 of the National League Championship Series are on at the same time.
 
At 7:17pm Pacific time, Romney won the debate. Bob Schieffer asked what is the biggest threat to national security. Obama said "terrorism," Romney said "a nuclear Iran." Romney is right.
 
maidenn.c.indiana said:
Say what? Romney thinks that Syria is Iran's only link to the sea. If you can't read a map, then you shouldn't be president
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Looked up the transcript, he said
Syria is Iran's only ally in the Arab world. It's their route to the sea. It's the route for them to arm Hezbollah in Lebanon, which threatens, of course, our ally, Israel. And so seeing Syria remove Assad is a very high priority for us. Number two, seeing a -- a replacement government being responsible people is critical for us. And finally, we don't want to have military involvement there. We don't want to get drawn into a military conflict.
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