Ten More Years

Wästed The Great

Minister Of Chicks, Metal&Beer; Cool & Froody Dude
Staff member
I didn't see a thread on this, so here goes.  According to Time magazine, China has decided to enforce the one-child policy for another decade (my understanding is the current policy expires 2010, so I believe this will extend it to 2020).  According to some info I have read, the one child rule doesn't seem to apply to 'minorities' or those of the more rural areas; it mainly focuses on the urbanized areas.  Recently, if both parents come from a single child family, they are allowed a second child also.  I know that deaths of female children are very common, due to the higher respect held for male children there.  Abortion, neglect, abandonment and infantacide has occured in many places, creating a ration of 114 males for every 100 females (average is 105/100).  Parents face heavy fines and taxes if they have more children than they are allowed.

So, just curious of what most think, is this policy a good idea for population control, or does the increase in abuse and infanticide negate any good the law provides?
 
Considering they have over 1 billion people I'd say it hasn't done much at all.... then again I think it only started to be enforced under Communist rule, but still... I think it's moronic.
 
I'm not touching this question with a ten foot pole.  ;)

The only thing I will say is that if India's population trends continue and there is no reason to believe they won't, China will be the second most populous nation.

EDIT: I will say this.  It is a loaded question.  The one child policy and infanticide should be treated as separate issues.
 
Oh, I just realized that he meant abortion.  I originally thought he meant that female babies are left out to die, which actually happens.  Pretty sickening how they de-value women in their society.
 
I was kind of treating the topic of infanticide in congunction with the one child policy.  Only, because I had a population/demographics class just before graduating; the prof was from China, and he led me to believe that the female children were left to die, for a chance at a male child, because of this policy.  Now, its possible that the issues of abandonment and infanticide were already there, before this policy was put into place.  I'm afraid that I don't have any information about that (I'll see what I can find).

So, my understanding was that the one child policy was what drove parents to the deaths of their born children, and also what increased the numbers of abortions (and, I'm not really tring to get a debate on abortion!).

I understand that population is an issue, but I don't think this is the answer-- however, I can't think of an answer to put in its place...

( I did find an online source that said the lower birth rate of female children could be due to hiding them, instead of reporting the births-- as opposed to abortion or infanticide)
 
The Chinese and Taiwanese people who I know say that gender-based infanticide has become common among areas that are quasi-rural - farm & small town, primary resource based areas near to cities.  In cities it's less common, because in the urban area there is just as much value to a female child as a male one.  In the deep countryside nobody cares how many kids you have.  But in those somewhat urban areas...
 
So, do they think it has become more common since the implementation of this policy?  Or is it for another reason that it has become more common?
 
This might be prejudice talking, but hasn't that kind of "male-child-preference" been a factor in China/India for a long while? I know I've heard an explanation for the occurrence in (rural) India which claimed that it was due to female children being less profitable. Dowry, lack of job opportunities for women, general male dominance etc. made female children such a "burden" that families decided to get rid of them. I have no sources to back this up, so I'm not citing it as fact, but it kinda makes sense to me.

I think cultural/societal tradition is more likely to be in effect than the one-child policy.

As for limiting population growth in general, I'm split. I read an interesting editorial a while ago that looked on the issue from the point of view of sustainable development. The idea proposed was that all civilised nations should implement a limit on the number of children born (not necessarily at one child, but still), in order to decrease the ecological foot-print of the west. Unfortunately, the way our economy works, it would be detrimental to economic growth to implement something like that here, but I still find it a fairly interesting idea. Might just be that I like radical ideas :p
 
If it wasn't for immigration many European nations would have a declining population.  Some do.  Greece and Italy for instance.
 
Or Germany, which has a declining population despite immigration.
 
Genghis Khan said:
If it wasn't for immigration many European nations would have a declining population.  Some do.  Greece and Italy for instance.

Generaly poor people make more babies than rich, and this applies to Europe generaly comparing to Africa or Asia
I guess the rate of reproduction is higher where the possibility of dying young is accordingly high
 
Perun said:
Or Germany, which has a declining population despite immigration.

What do you mean by this, Perun? Are you talking about the decline of traditionally "German" population over the immigration of Turks and other ethnic groups, or despite said populations Germany as a whole is declining? Because from my understanding is that Germany has suffered from overpopulation for quite sometime now do to the sanctions imposed after WWII of having borders open and VERY lax citizenship requirements (don't know if that's a WWII by-product, but still).
 
I believe he means that deaths & emigration total greater than births & immigration, Onhell.  It's simple math.
 
Shrike said:
This might be prejudice talking, but hasn't that kind of "male-child-preference" been a factor in China/India for a long while? I know I've heard an explanation for the occurrence in (rural) India which claimed that it was due to female children being less profitable. Dowry, lack of job opportunities for women, general male dominance etc. made female children such a "burden" that families decided to get rid of them. I have no sources to back this up, so I'm not citing it as fact, but it kinda makes sense to me.

I think cultural/societal tradition is more likely to be in effect than the one-child policy.

As for limiting population growth in general, I'm split. I read an interesting editorial a while ago that looked on the issue from the point of view of sustainable development. The idea proposed was that all civilised nations should implement a limit on the number of children born (not necessarily at one child, but still), in order to decrease the ecological foot-print of the west. Unfortunately, the way our economy works, it would be detrimental to economic growth to implement something like that here, but I still find it a fairly interesting idea. Might just be that I like radical ideas :p

As to the male/female prejudice, the article I read seemed to think that this had become more prevelant as of late, since the beginning of this policy. Prior, females could be born, and were just 'there', whereas now, if a female is born, and the parents are allowed only one child, they may find a way to try again-- for their one child.

As to the population growth, it seems that, as a country reaches post-industrialization, the birthrate decreases and the population ages.  I don't have the figures here (I'll try to find them).  As Perun stated, Germany, as well as France and Italy are growing old.  Many European nations are. As well as the US.  One odd exception that comes to mind is Brazil.  The population in that country is more stabil than it should be, based on its industrial phase.  Many attribute this to the heavy influence of Catholocisim in the country.  There is more to it than that, tho, I think.

EDIT: GK stated Greece and Italy were declining.
 
Brazil still has large swaths of rural, less educated areas that continue to grow its population - just like the USA.  Some states populations are declining (Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Washington).  However, many states are still growing (Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, Georgia).  I see a correlation there.  But hey.  Back to the topic at hand.

Before the One Child law, Chinese children were good for two things: working on the farm or in another primary industry of local choice, or being married off for dowry.  Now, let's be clear here.  The Chinese tradition of dowry and of what makes women attractive has led to some rather well documented series of abuses, like the tying of the feet, for instance, and it wasn't a peachy system before the law.  But a daughter who is married off for dowry cannot work the farm as the parents get older.  Thus, sons are preferred.  The girls are like...bonds.  You invest to get a nice bonus later.  The sons are RRSPs.
 
Onhell said:
What do you mean by this, Perun? Are you talking about the decline of traditionally "German" population over the immigration of Turks and other ethnic groups, or despite said populations Germany as a whole is declining? Because from my understanding is that Germany has suffered from overpopulation for quite sometime now do to the sanctions imposed after WWII of having borders open and VERY lax citizenship requirements (don't know if that's a WWII by-product, but still).

I mean pretty much what I said there. The total population of Germany at the moment is 83 Million (including immigrants), and is projected to be 79 Million (including immigrants) by 2050. It is therefore one of the few countries that has a (projected) shrinking population. For the next couple of decades, there will be a stagnation, mostly because many immigrant families have a lot of kids, but that won't last forever. The main reason for this is that ever since 1968, the traditional family which I was born into (mum, dad, two to three kids, mother gives up career for family, no divorce) is considered almost as bad as a group of nazis by society.

Here's the age structure "pyramid" of Germany for 1910, 2005 and 2050 (projected):

altersaufbau__pyramiden,property=poster.jpg


One annotation: The big bend slightly underneath the centre in the 2005 graphic is not due to World War 2. It occurred in the late 60s/early 70s. The WWII break can still be seen among the 80-year-olds mark.


EDIT: Maybe I should explain what I meant with "The main reason for this is that ever since 1968, the traditional family which I was born into (mum, dad, two to three kids, mother gives up career for family, no divorce) is considered almost as bad as a group of nazis by society.". I hate to say it, but I'm not exaggerating here, and I won't be with my explanation either.
In the Third Reich, there was an award called the "Mother's Cross". It was awarded to ("purely") German women who bore four children or more.  This is a very convenient argument for feminists who feel offended by the fact that women can carry children and are expected to do so. So, whenever a politician so much as dares to say that we should do something against the declining population and we should have more children, those feminists come out and SCREAM "MOTHERS CROSS OMFG HES A NAZI BURN THE WITCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111". And I mean it. Fine, the "burn the witch" part is never literally used, but it's what happens afterwards. The Mother's Cross parts, I have read myself several times.
A woman who decides to give up her career in favour of her children is considered a traitor to her gender. She is considered giving in to the role imposed on her by a patriarchal society, and therefore supporting said society. A woman may have children, but she must not give up more than a year of work for them. A second child is already an eyebrow-raiser. A third child is proto-fascist. A fourth child, and she's aiming for the Mother's Cross. Moreover, a good family never has more than two children. If you watch any given TV show, middle-class families always have a max of one or two children, three or more are the offspring of poor families who live on welfare. And believe me, I wish I was exaggerating. Also, a good middle-class man or woman is expected to have been divorced at least once.
This is not an issue in public discussion. What I am describing here is just the way it is and the way I observe it, not the way any analysts see it- because it is not being analysed. Why? Because nobody dares to do so, or else they'll be branded nazis as well.
 
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