Swine Flu

K

Kopfanatic

Trooper
The World Health Organisation  says we should be worried about this. Its now surfaced in New Zealand and Canada, apart from Mexico, and, I understand, a school in New York. what are the press saying about this on the other side of the Atlantic?
 
CNN just had a blurb about this saying that there should be concern, and that it is a 'pandemic'.  The CDC declared a 'state of emergency'; cases in the nation rose to 20.

Link to CNN
 
Here, they say that it exists and that some Kiwis got infected. While browsing the paper today I read the headline "Swine Flu: Should we be worried?" but didn't really care. At worst, it would mean that I'm going to have to abstain from currywurst for a while, but I don't eat much pork other than that.
 
Uh.  No.  We should not be worried.  This is not gonna be a repeat of the Spanish influenza, any more than SARS was a repeat of smallpox.  Why?

1. We have generally healthy populations.
2. We are aware of basic hygiene.
3. CNN is using it's traditional "scare you into watching the news" tactic.  Yes, 100 cases of swine flu have been reported...but no fatalities in the USA.  81 deaths in Mexico?  That's about the average REGULAR flu.
 
LooseCannon said:
81 deaths in Mexico?  That's about the average REGULAR flu.
Click to expand...

With another 200 to be officially announced tomorrow, from what I heard. This is no "regular" flu.

You're right, it's no Spanish influenza - but it is worth watching out for. Not necessarily "worry", but also not disregard.
 
I'm personally skeptical about these media reports of "new pandemic" since they tend to come out every other year or so.  Yes, Sars and bird flu are nothing to laugh at, but they also never became a huge thing in Western countries because the general hygiene is good, and we have (mostly) good healthcare and doctors.  Like LC said, there have been no fatalities in the USA so far.  I at least am not going to get all worked up and panicking about this (yet?).
 
The sensationalized Latin news network "Univision," has stated that people are dropping like flies in Mexico State, Mexico due to this flu. I...HATE, the news on that channel, because they blow EVERYTHING out of proportion for shock value's sake, but like SMX stated, it is something to keep track of.
 
SinisterMinisterX said:
With another 200 to be officially announced tomorrow, from what I heard. This is no "regular" flu.

You're right, it's no Spanish influenza - but it is worth watching out for. Not necessarily "worry", but also not disregard.
Click to expand...

Dude, something like 15,000 people die each year in the USA of the flu.  This just has a new name.  No, it's not a regular flu - the flu each year is different, having evolved from the previous year's attempts at immunization (which do actually tend to work, though you oft get emails saying that they have the wrong strain, etc).  Of course, those who die are the old, the infirm, the very young, and the very poor. Swine flu may be more lethal in other demographics...I don't know enough yet.
 
_45705779_swine_fever_466.gif


Mexico: 103 dead - 20 confirmed to have died from swine flu, 18 confirmed ill with swine flu
United States: 20 confirmed cases of swine flu
Canada: 6 confirmed cases
UK, France, Spain, Israel, Brazil, Australia and New Zealand: suspected cases being tested
 
SARS, Bird Flu, now this shit...I just don't give a fuck. Under 1000 people are going to die in areas where nobody meets basic hygiene requirements, someone is going to sell billions worth of magic pills, and that's it.
 
Forostar said:
Absolutely not regular indeed.
Click to expand...

While particularly infectious, the amount of people in Mexico actually infected by and killed by the disease is not known; since last night, investigators have uncovered 20 new deaths, but over 800 newly found cases (not new infections, though presumably some are new infections).  That has lowered the reported mortality rate significantly.  Given that Mexico is a poor country, and this disease outbreak seems to be affecting the particularly poor...well, it wouldn't shock me if there are thousands more unreported cases that have come and gone, with additional deaths possible indeed.

We don't know enough yet to declare whether or not this is going to be any worse than the regular seasonal flu, save for the sudden sensationalism of it all.
 
My link in my previous post shows that it is more serious, doesn't it?

The WHO doesn't sound like a sensational organ to me.
 
Yes.  It is serious.  It has the possibility to be fatal.  It has the possibility to be dangerous.  But at the same time, we don't know enough if the disease is going to be either a pandemic, or particularly virulent.  It's something to be monitored.

Remember, about 36,000 Americans die on average per year from the complications of the seasonal flu.  It's not the deaths I worry about, but the percentage of infectious cases that become fatalities; numbers which we of yet have no idea.  Once we know that, then we can worry.

However, western hygienic practises are often the bane of infectious diseases.  Remember the SARS pandemic?  Yes, it had a high fatality rate, but we were able to restrict its spread to under 9000 people because we are generally...not living in filth.  Those it did infect tended to be the ill, old, and infirm in places like Canada, where it had the highest fatality rate.
 
What the WHO and the CDC does is prepare us for these sorts of things.  The reason why this is considered serious is not because of its virulence or its lethality, but because of its widespread infections already, in places like Australia, Canada, and Spain.  That's the hallmark of a pandemic.  Many extremely dangerous diseases are not considered to be particularly "serious" because they are local.
 
It's also considered serious because the victim profile isn't typical. It's killing healthy adults as easily as children or elderly. The last flu that had this victim profile was the 1918 Spanish flu.

However, the conditions which made the 1918 flu so dangerous don't exist today. In addition to better hygiene, the 1918 flu was also spread by WWI.

And maybe this isn't a big deal in other parts of the world, but it is in Colorado. There's a lot of people who travel back and forth to Mexico - mostly Mexicans living in CO who go to Mexico to visit family. There's a much better chance this flu can wind up in my area. Again, not a cause for panic, but people in my area are watching this carefully.
 
I guess the media did it. I am a bit uneasy about this now, given that there are reported cases in continental Europe. It's nothing to get me panicked (I still think that the risk of a piano falling on my head as I walk down the street is greater), but I still think that possible dangers should not be underestimated.
 
I agree with Perun.The WHO have put their warning up to phase 4(A bit like defcon).Unlike the press, they have no newspapers to sell, so they must be concerned.Most of the cases in Europe have been mild, but this seems to be particularly contagous. The main worry, and also distinct possibility, is that the virus mutates, therefore rendering the anti-viral drugs useless.
 
The WHO is concerned about the disease spreading, any disease indeed.  So I remain unconcerned personally - but I recognize that containment is a good idea to take to this particular strand so that we reduce the amount of infections.  But I do maintain that we won't know how dangerous it is...until we see how lethal it is in the developed world.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top