[span style=\'font-size:8pt;line-height:100%\']This is a long post. Sorry! But Silky presented a challenging argument that required extensive discussion. I hope no one will accuse me of being closed-minded after this.[/span]
[!--QuoteBegin-Silky+Jan 25 2006, 05:51 PM--][div class=\'quotetop\']QUOTE(Silky @ Jan 25 2006, 05:51 PM)[/div][div class=\'quotemain\'][!--QuoteEBegin--]Okay, how about this one. If you don't believe that there is a God, and he created the universe, then you accept that we are currently having this argument as a result of insane odds; that a star of the right temperature would condense in our solar system; that the material left over from this star's creation would become nine planets, one of which had JUST the right position, orbital time, axis and rotary speed to facilitate the growth of particular single celled organisms. That over time these organims adapted so that they evolved, and eventually the world was populated by dinosaurs and other reptilians. That a comet/meteorite/other natural disaster of such devastating proportions smashed into earth/occured to wipe out said dinosaurs, which were the main limiting factor on our ancestors, mammals. That these mammals, by virtue of their small size, were able to survive, and become the mammals of the Pleistocene and other post-Mesozoic eras. That 2 million years ago, a monkey that it would be a better idea to walk a bit more upright to see stuff better. That man evolved, and gained sentience, enough to argue over whether a creator existed at all!
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Good. An argument!! I hadn’t seen one of these in a while. But before we get too excited, let’s see if it actually works. The argument seems to be this:
(1) The odds of the universe (as we know it) coming into being by random, unguided processes are astronomically small.
(2) The odds of there being a God who could (and did) create the universe (as we know) it are not astronomically small.
Therefore:
(3) It is more likely that God created the universe than that it arose and developed by random, unguided process.
Therefore:
(4) It is more likely that there is a God than that there isn’t.
[span style=\'font-size:8pt;line-height:100%\']Silky, if this misrepresents what you had in mind, please correct me.[/span]
Let me say a few preliminary things before I turn to evaluating the argument itself.
First, whether this argument works or not, it is not
obviously a bad argument and so I don’t think someone who believes it is therefore crazy or stupid. I think that many people who believe in God do so for absolutely absurd reasons (e.g. “mommy said so,” etc.). But if you believe in God for something resembling the reasons embodied in this argument, even if I think you are mistaken in the end, I won’t think you’re crazy.
Second, this argument does not purport to be a
proof of the existence of God. Even if the argument is valid and sound, it does not conclusively establish the existence of God. Rather, it shows it to be more likely than the alternative. I don’t think this is a bad thing. A number of people on this thread have insisted that you can’t
prove either the existence or the inexistence of God, and they take that to justify them in not bothering to think about the reasons for and against; they think it is therefore just a matter of faith. Most of what we believe, we do not believe on the basis of conclusive and irrefutable proofs, but that doesn’t mean that those beliefs are arbitrary and based on faith. I believe the desk I’m sitting at is made of wood. Can I
prove it? No; some mad scientist might be manipulating my thoughts and perceptions causing me to hallucinate. So is it just a matter of faith? No. Though it is a possibility, I have absolutely no reason to think that a mad scientist is making me hallucinate so it would actually be irrational for me to withhold belief on that basis. My point here is simply to get people to see that there is a middle ground between proof and faith. One might have very good reasons for believing something even if those reasons are not conclusive. Faith, as I understand it, is a matter of believing for no reason at all.
Finally, even if this argument works, what it establishes is quite limited. It says nothing about Jesus or the Trinity, or the foundations of morality. At most, what it would establish is that there exists a powerful creator (or creators). For all the argument shows, this creator could be the furthest thing from our conception of God: he might be a perverse deity who created the universe for his own selfish amusement.
Now, on to the argument…does it work? Consider the following case: Suppose I have a large bin with 10,000 white marbles and 1 black one. You close your eyes and I reach in and pull out the black marble. Now I ask you: is it more likely that .A. I reached into the bin blind-folded and randomly selected what turned out to be the black marble, or .B. that I rummaged through the bin and visually selected the black one? Certainly option .B. is more likely and in the absence of any further evidence, it would be most rational for you to believe that I selected the black marble by method .B. Proponents of the argument for the existence of God will want to claim that the cases are perfectly parallel. Just as it is more rational to believe that I selected the black marble by method .B., so it is more rational to believe that the universe came into being by the hand of God. But are the cases really parallel? I think there are reasons to doubt that.
First, how does one compute the odds of there being a God who can create the universe as we know it? The argument relies on the assumption that this probability is significantly larger than the probability of the universe arising and developing randomly. But my worry is that this assumption is not so much false as it is incoherent. We can approximate the probability of the universe arising by chance because we have some knowledge of the starting conditions (i.e. the Big Bang) and of the mechanisms by which those starting conditions could’ve developed into later stages. Given a rough knowledge of all the possible routes such development could’ve taken, we can calculate an approximate probability for the universe as we know it. But on the basis of what do we calculate (even approximately!) the probability of there being a God who created the universe? It’s not that I think the probability is very low; it’s that I don’t think the question even makes sense.
Think of it this way. We live in a universe that appears to be fine-tuned for our existence. The slightest change in the position of the earth or the gravitational constant of the universe and we would never have existed. Such a state of affairs is extremely unlikely to have developed by random chance. What, then, are we to say about this apparently extraordinary state of affairs? Here are some possibilities:
(i) Live with it! Unlikely things happen and don’t require explanation. We can explain the mechanism by which such an unlikely state of affairs came about; but there is no need to explain (or explain away) the
unlikelihood of it all.
(ii) God created the universe.
The proponent of the argument we started with will certainly favor (ii) over (i). But (ii) isn’t an explanation of anything. It doesn’t solve the problem of the unlikelihood of our existence. It simply names a solution: something accounts for unlikelihood of our existence, let us call it God. Recall what I said earlier. The concept of God as it figures in this argument, is not the concept we are all familiar with from Sunday School. He is not the father of Jesus, he is not your personal companion, he does not care about he events of your daily life, and he does not lay foundations for morality. Above I said that that he is simply “the creator,” but even that is too strong. All we know about God from this argument is that he is whatever explains away the unlikelihood of our existence. But for all we know, the unlikelihood of our existence may simply be a cold hard fact that has no further explanation. Or, perhaps, the unlikelihood of our existence will be (partly) explained away by a better understanding of physical laws according to which, perhaps, the possible alternate routes from the Big Bang to the present are not as great as the argument supposes.