Taiwan & Pacific geo-politics

Nothing. Ever since agreeing to the "One China" principle the U.S. has not supported formal independence for Taiwan. We support the status quo, which is de facto Taiwanese independence, with the stated goal of eventual peaceful reunification with the mainland. Since the Taiwanese would never willingly give up their democracy and their personal freedoms to live under authoritarian rule, peaceful reunification with the PRC is not possible, and reunification would only become possible if China liberalized and democratized.

On the contrary. The world is a different place since last October. Saudi Arabia & Iran peace deal brokered by China. Countries start trading in their currency or CNY. Many countries including Saudi Arabia show strong interest to join BRICS. The whole NATO (let alone US) cannot keep up with the war of attrition in Ukraine. RFK is drawing 15-20% of Democrats. China leaning parties gain ground in Taiwan.
All the above plus the fact that we are 18 months before US elections has made, in my opinion, Biden Administration to want to ease it with China.

Your questioning is pretty hilarious, by the way. The United States spends more on national defense than the next 10 countries (China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, South Korea, Japan, and Ukraine) combined. What on earth makes you think we're not fully outfitted and ready to handle a full-blown military conflict? We have weaknesses in cyberwarfare, and in fighting insurgent non-state-actor groups; but when it comes to traditional military warfare we are pretty clearly dominant in force and technology.

I know all that. I don’t think US can be beaten in a full-blown open conflict by Russia or China alone. But when/if they‘ll send troops on the ground, I doubt that they could beat Russians in a war of attrition in Ukraine.

But all they have to do is look at Hong Kong to see what Taiwan would quickly become under PRC rule.

I’ve been many times in HK. HK is doing well. It’s not that they ever had democracy and they lost it. Many pro PRC riots had happen under the British and then the Colonial forces were shooting and killing people. Probably hundreds of people were killed during anti-British protests. Hundreds. Killed.

Well, Xi is a dictator. It's not like that's news.

You are missing the point. US went on great lengths and worked for months for this Blinken visit. They sent CIA head to prepare the ground then Blinken took a 10 hours beating by the Chinese. No matter what we assume, it’s certain that they had serious reasons to do that.
And after all this months preparation plus lecture and beating Blinken took in Beijing, next day Biden calls Xi a dictator. And note, this is not the usual Biden dementia thing, it’s been it the US official read outs. Which makes it even worse. Everything that has been achieved no matter small during the Blinken visit is now been destroyed. Such an unhinged behavior.

EDIT: Now Biden goes out to say he doesn’t think calling Xi a dictator will not affect their relations. It would be laughable if it weren’t deeply concerning.

Yep, pretty much all English-language media abbreviates it "CCP", as do all of the Chinese immigrants I've personally encountered in the U.S. If China is so adamant that it be abbreviated "CPC", I don't know why it's turned out differently.

As explained you a few posts above this is a grammar thing, we always put the adjective then the party then the country. It’s rude to say American United States, or German Communist Party. And besides, when talking officially we should follow the official naming protocol.

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If you want to be concerned about a potential flashpoint where China is clearly the one ruffling feathers, how about their conversations to potentially set up a military base in Cuba, which is only 80 miles off the coast of Florida? The last time a major Communist power tried this, it brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. You can be sure the U.S. will never allow this to happen.

I understand US‘ concerns but let remind you that we are on the brink of nuclear war now because they refused to acknowledge and accept Russian concerns about Ukraine. And they keep pushing the escalation ladder.
And I don’t agree that this will never happen. During the 60s people in power were hinged and realistic in both sides. What grounds US have to refuse a base in Cuba after all the color Revolutions, NATO expansion, military presence in South China Sea and war in Ukraine?
Just check statements from US officials they are downplaying and even recognizing the “right” of China to have a base in Cuba as a fair play. So don’t bet that it won’t happen, we are not in the 60s. Unfortunately. If we were the war in Ukraine would never happen.
 
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On the contrary. The world is a different place since last October. Saudi Arabia & Iran peace deal brokered by China.
All authoritarian regimes, not surprising.

Countries start trading in their currency or CNY.
Yes, let's look at who. India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Russia, China. Note that Brazil was also the only other country alongside Russia and China to try to get a Russia-led fourth investigation into the NordStream 2 incident, so they're probably being actively bribed by Russia and China. Look for China to try to install a military base there, too.

Out of all of those, India is really the only one that's surprising or potentially concerning. But India has been moving in a more autocratic direction lately, which is also concerning. If you get to the point where half the world is under authoritarian regimes, that's bad news for democracy, and that's ultimately bad for everyone who believes in individual rights.

The whole NATO (let alone US) cannot keep up with the war of attrition in Ukraine.
NATO isn't directly fighting in Ukraine, they're only providing weapons and training. And last I saw, former superpower Russia has utterly failed to meet their strategic objectives there, and was slowly losing ground during the current counteroffensive.

RFK is drawing 15-20% of Democrats.
RFK Jr. is polling at 15-20% because of name recognition and general distaste for Biden. As soon as people start hearing about RFK Jr.'s absolutely bonkers positions on vaccines and other issues those numbers will drop to the low single digits.

China leaning parties gain ground in Taiwan.
And how much of that is due to direct propaganda efforts pushed by the PRC? Keep dreaming, but Taiwan isn't going to just roll over and forfeit everything they've built since the revolution.

All the above plus the fact that we are 18 months before US elections has made, in my opinion, Biden Administration to want to ease it with China.
Yes, even with years of tariffs pushing a lot of manufacturing out of China and into India, Vietnam, and elsewhere, we are still too tightly coupled with China economically to keep them at arm's length. We have to have a functional diplomatic relationship with them, but strategically we should be looking to disengage economically as much as we reasonably can, and then tie reengagement to human rights advances. But that would require cooperation among all the western democracies to do so, and Europe is less concerned about China at the moment, especially with the economic hardship caused by the sanctions against Russia.

Honestly, the U.S. should be moving as much manufacturing from China to Mexico as possible. There are serious corruption issues in Mexico that would need to be addressed, but basing most of our lower-cost manufacturing there would reduce transportation costs, time zone problems, and IP theft, and it would help to lift Mexico's economy, which would ease immigration issues at the U.S./Mexican border. And it would make Mexico less susceptible to China's attempts at bribery.

I don’t think US can be beaten in a full-blown open conflict by Russia or China alone. But when/if they‘ll send troops on the ground, I doubt that they could beat Russians in a war of attrition in Ukraine.
If the Ukrainians are able to hold their own against Russia with western weapons, why do you think a highly trained and larger force with even more advanced weaponry would be less successful?

Not that it would come to that -- we've been pretty clear that we're not going to put troops on the ground there. But we need to be ready in case Putin goes nuts and lets the conflict spill over into neighboring countries, especially those who are NATO members, due to Article 5.

I’ve been many times in HK. HK is doing well. It’s not that they ever had democracy and they lost it. Many pro PRC riots had happen under the British and then the Colonial forces were shooting and killing people. Probably hundreds of people were killed during anti-British protests. Hundreds. Killed.
Are you going to claim that Hong Kongers are as free today as they were under British control? That the national security law and the violation of the timeline agreed to in the Sino-British Joint Declaration haven't had a chilling effect on the people compared to pre-1997 HK?

You are missing the point. US went on great lengths and worked for months for this Blinken visit. They sent CIA head to prepare the ground then Blinken took a 10 hours beating by the Chinese. No matter what we assume, it’s certain that they had serious reasons to do that.
And after all this months preparation plus lecture and beating Blinken took in Beijing, next day Biden calls Xi a dictator. And note, this is not the usual Biden dementia thing, it’s been it the US official read outs. Which makes it even worse. Everything that has been achieved no matter small during the Blinken visit is now been destroyed. Such an unhinged behavior.
Our job is not to kiss Xi's ass and boost his ego. If he is so fragile that he can't handle being called exactly what he is (a dictator) or what he resembles (Winnie The Pooh), then that's his problem.

Also, China needs to engage with the U.S. at least as much as the U.S. needs to engage with China. Zero COVID and tariffs have seriously beaten up China's economy, which is struggling to hit already slow growth targets. A lot of people are having trouble finding jobs, there's a gigantic real estate bubble waiting to burst, and China is heavily reliant on food importation. Granted, they've replaced a fair number of U.S. food imports with Brazilian imports (one way in which they're buying Brazil's support on the world stage), and they've taken the asinine step of having some city parks repurposed into basically unusable farmland, but at the end of the day they need to engage with us, just as we need to engage with them.

As explained you a few posts above this is a grammar thing, we always put the adjective then the party then the country. It’s rude to say American United States, or German Communist Party. And besides, when talking officially we should follow the official naming protocol.
Tell that to Al Jazeera, BBC News, and everyone else in the English-language media, then. And Chinese immigrant transplants. Clearly the rest of the world did not get the memo.

I understand US‘ concerns but let remind you that we are on the brink of nuclear war now because they refused to acknowledge and accept Russian concerns about Ukraine. And they keep pushing the escalation ladder.
Jesus, let me know when your talk show debuts on RT. Ukraine gave up their nukes in exchange for their independence from the former Soviet Union. They didn't have any foreign military bases or NATO troops on their land that I'm aware of. Russia's concerns weren't based on anything that had actually happened yet, but they chose to proactively invade the country multiple times anyway. How on earth is this not Russia's own fault?

And I don’t agree that this will never happen. During the 60s people in power were hinged and realistic in both sides. What grounds US have to refuse a base in Cuba after all the color Revolutions, NATO expansion, military presence in South China Sea and war in Ukraine?
Because it's an unacceptable national security threat, and if Xi tests us, he'll either learn the same humbling lesson Khrushchev did, or we'll all be fucked thanks to his ego.

Just check statements from US officials they are downplaying and even recognizing the “right” of China to have a base in Cuba as a fair play.
Source?

So don’t bet that it won’t happen, we are not in the 60s.
You are so very wrong, and if Xi's thinking is as off-base as yours is about the U.S., then we're all in for a world of shit.
 
All authoritarian regimes, not surprising.

You are missing the point. Who cares. This could be the beginning of the end of American dominance. And let me remind you that US is now a superpower due to Petrodollar and the close cooperation with one of those regimes.

Yes, let's look at who. India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Russia, China. Note that Brazil was also the only other country alongside Russia and China to try to get a Russia-led fourth investigation into the NordStream 2 incident, so they're probably being actively bribed by Russia and China. Look for China to try to install a military base there, too.

Again you are missing the point. Also China bribed by Russia argument is hilarious. And it’s more countries than that, i.e. Indonesia for one.

RFK Jr. is polling at 15-20% because of name recognition and general distaste for Biden. As soon as people start hearing about RFK Jr.'s absolutely bonkers positions on vaccines and other issues those numbers will drop to the low single digits.

If people can vote a corrupt politician who forgets his words half of the times (a.k.a dementia) and pledges allegiance to a foreign flag they can vote for a clean politician with some broken views.


Honestly, the U.S. should be moving as much manufacturing from China to Mexico as possible. There are serious corruption issues in Mexico that would need to be addressed, but basing most of our lower-cost manufacturing there would reduce transportation costs, time zone problems, and IP theft, and it would help to lift Mexico's economy, which would ease immigration issues at the U.S./Mexican border. And it would make Mexico less susceptible to China's attempts at bribery.

Mexico makes a huge deal of sense economically but your thoughts are concerning in another level. After what happened with China one would expect that Americans would want to get manufacturing back to their country. Big money would loose profits but it would be beneficial for the middle and lower classes. And for the country as a whole in the long term. There was no lesson learnt from China yet.

If the Ukrainians are able to hold their own against Russia with western weapons, why do you think a highly trained and larger force with even more advanced weaponry would be less successful?

Ukrainians (and Russians) suffered huge losses in human lives. Americans & Europeans are not ready to suffer a fraction of that.

Are you going to claim that Hong Kongers are as free today as they were under British control? That the national security law and the violation of the timeline agreed to in the Sino-British Joint Declaration haven't had a chilling effect on the people compared to pre-1997 HK?

Under current regime they aren’t being killed by hundreds for one so quite probably yes.

Our job is not to kiss Xi's ass and boost his ego. If he is so fragile that he can't handle being called exactly what he is (a dictator) or what he resembles (Winnie The Pooh), then that's his problem.

Once more you are missing the point. It’s called diplomacy. In the real world a serious leader needs to respect others or show respect at least. Joe Biden is terrible at that. One of his many shortcomings. But I don’t understand why you should go along with that.


Tell that to Al Jazeera, BBC News, and everyone else in the English-language media, then. And Chinese immigrant transplants. Clearly the rest of the world did not get the memo.

Yes and that doesn’t make it right.


It’s on the Politico article I linked 2 posts above, link title =calling Xi a dictator.

On Tuesday, news broke indicating the China-Cuba military base could host Beijing’s forces near the American homeland. While joint training isn’t wholly provocative — the U.S. often conducts drills with partners near an adversary’s territory, including putting American forces in Taiwan — “having Chinese troops in Cuba is something different,” said Beth Sanner, formerly the deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration.

“We have planes that are conducting surveillance right along the Chinese coast, so of course they want to have the same capability near the United States,” Sanner continued. “They can’t fly equivalent EC-135s, so the only choice they really have is something like Cuba and so they’re going to pursue that. That’s part of the world of espionage.”
 
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You are missing the point. Who cares. This could be the beginning of the end of American dominance.
And it could also just be a few authoritarian regimes having a pajama party. As you said, who cares? You’ve reached a conclusion already and are trying to cherry-pick and interpret specific events to match your conclusion. Yawn.

And let me remind you that US is now a superpower due to Petrodollar and the close cooperation with one of those regimes.
Yes, let’s ignore all the other things the U.S. has done over the last 80 years to establish itself as a superpower, because acknowledging those things would mean you wouldn’t have an argument here.

Again you are missing the point.
You seem to say this whenever I effectively point out a weakness in your position, but you never explain why. Perhaps because there is no why, and this is just an empty deflection. Try a substantive rebuttal instead, if you have one.

Also China bribed by Russia argument is hilarious.
It would be if I’d said that, but what I actually said was that Brazil was likely bribed by Russia and China, and we already see evidence of this with China moving a lot of its food import trade from the U.S. to Brazil.

And it’s more countries than that, i.e. Indonesia for one.
Another pillar of human rights and personal freedom. Color me surprised.

If people can vote a corrupt politician who forget his words half the time they can vote for a clean politician with some broken views.
How is Biden corrupt? Or are you just regurgitating far right talking points that have been echoed by Chinese state media again?

And why is RFK Jr. “clean” by comparison…?

Mexico makes a huge deal of sense economically but your thoughts are concerning in another level. After what happened with China one would expect that Americans would want to get manufacturing back to their country. Big money would loose profits but it would be beneficial for the middle and lower classes. And for the country as a whole in the long term. There was no lesson learnt from China yet.
We can’t fill those kinds of jobs en masse in the U.S. because people here generally don’t want them. And if we jacked up the wages enough to entice some people (still not enough) to take them, it would cause more inflation, which would be demonstrably bad for the lower and middle classes here, as it would reduce their spending power even further. Nearshoring to Mexico would keep costs lower and have many other knock-on benefits. There’s also much less of a concern with adversarial bullshit with Mexico.

The lesson from China isn’t “make everything within your own borders”, because that’s literally the least efficient way you could handle things, outside of critical national security supply chain issues. The lesson is that engagement doesn’t always bring liberalization, so you shouldn’t deeply entangle yourself economically with a nation that’s diametrically opposed to your own values, because it can lead to a very painful and messy divorce down the road.

The thing that’s really new here is we’ve learned that authoritarian regimes can hold onto power and remain stable as long as they give their people a high-enough standard of living to keep them placated. The desire for personal freedom alone apparently isn’t compelling enough anymore to spark a revolt, unless you push it as far as Xi did during Zero COVID. When the first embers of a real nationwide uprising started to appear, Xi backpedaled as fast as he could, because he realized he was bucking up against the limit.

Ukrainians (and Russians) suffered huge losses in human lives. Americans & Europeans are not ready to suffer a fraction of that.
With an all-volunteer army a society is willing to endure a lot more losses than when the government is drafting people. That was the (unfortunate) lesson learned from Vietnam. And Americans have historically shed plenty of their own blood in Europe, thank you very much.

Under current regime they aren’t being killed by hundreds for one so quite probably yes.
See, this kind of shit, along with some of your other comments, makes me wonder if you’re on the Communist Party’s payroll as a propagandist.

Again you are missing the point. It’s called diplomacy. In the real world a serious leader needs to respect others or show respect at least.
And how has “wolf warrior” diplomacy demonstrated that to the world, exactly? Or is Xi also not a serious leader?

But I don’t understand why you should go along with that.
I’m a fan of calling things what they actually are.

Yes and that doesn’t make it right.
You seem so butthurt about this very specific detail. Should I get upset that Mexico abbreviates the United States as “E.E.U.U.” because it makes sense in Spanish? Should they get mad at us for pronouncing “Mexico” with a hard “x” sound instead of a soft “h” sound? Should Kim Jong Un stamp his feet because we refer to his country as “North Korea” rather than the DPRK? For whatever reason, all English language media and every Chinese immigrant I’ve met in the U.S. uses “CCP”. If this was really that important to the, ahem, CPC for others to get it right, their charm initiative appears to have failed.

It’s on the Politico article I linked 2 posts above, link title =calling Xi a dictator.

On Tuesday, news broke indicating the China-Cuba military base could host Beijing’s forces near the American homeland. While joint training isn’t wholly provocative — the U.S. often conducts drills with partners near an adversary’s territory, including putting American forces in Taiwan — “having Chinese troops in Cuba is something different,” said Beth Sanner, formerly the deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration.

“We have planes that are conducting surveillance right along the Chinese coast, so of course they want to have the same capability near the United States,” Sanner continued. “They can’t fly equivalent EC-135s, so the only choice they really have is something like Cuba and so they’re going to pursue that. That’s part of the world of espionage.”
In your own quote she says having Chinese troops in Cuba is fundamentally different from joint operations between China and Cuba, and it is.

Blinken has been more direct about this, while still being diplomatic. The message is clear — no Chinese base in Cuba, period.
 
See, this kind of shit, along with some of your other comments, makes me wonder if you’re on the Communist Party’s payroll as a propagandist.

Google it then.

And how has “wolf warrior” diplomacy demonstrated that to the world, exactly? Or is Xi also not a serious leader?

Simple. It's US that tried to have this visit. And they tried for months. Both parties were aware what will happen. This is why I criticised Biden's behaviour as unhinged and his comments that this will have no effects to the relations fwd as laughable.

In your own quote she says having Chinese troops in Cuba is fundamentally different from joint operations between China and Cuba, and it is.

Now who's cherrypicking?
“We have planes that are conducting surveillance right along the Chinese coast, so of course they want to have the same capability near the United States,” Sanner continued. “They can’t fly equivalent EC-135s, so the only choice they really have is something like Cuba and so they’re going to pursue that. That’s part of the world of espionage.

God save the Queen, man.

Blinken has been more direct about this, while still being diplomatic. The message is clear — no Chinese base in Cuba, period.

Whatever he said to the journalists the official readout barely touched the subject.

"The two sides discussed a range of global and regional security issues, including Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the DPRK’s provocative actions, and U.S. concerns with PRC intelligence activities in Cuba."

You're welcome.
 
Google it then.
Are you talking about the 1967 riots where CCP-backed protestors blew up IEDs, which then led to police raids that ultimately killed 46 protestors and 5 cops? Not hundreds of people, and not poor little innocent protestors who were doing nothing wrong, either. (And this completely ignores the rebooting of the HK police force in 1979 when they were then heralded as “Asia’s Finest” until well after the 1997 handover.)

Is that really your argument that Hong Kongers in general are better off now under PRC rule? Really? Where the new national security law can be used to imprison a person for life for saying anything the CCP deems “seditious”? Where pro-democracy books are banned and elections are now rigged? And that’s supposedly better because police raids of demonstrably terroristic pro-CCP groups over 50 years ago ended in deadly violence?

Wow.

Now who's cherrypicking?
You are, as usual. I’m just pointing out how your own quote undermines your own argument.

It’s one thing for China to fly spy planes over international waters, using a Cuban airport as a staging ground. That’s fair play. It’s entirely another thing to build a military base and station Chinese troops in Cuba, especially if you’re talking about a military seaport or the installation of missiles that could strike the U.S. This is the distinction that was clearly made by Blinken and his underlings, and is consistent with my own point. This shouldn’t be hard to understand.
 
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