Taiwan & Pacific geo-politics

____no5

Free Man
I created this thread in order to shed more light in this matter. How it started, how and why it transformed, where we heading and all.
Also to monitor the current situation & geo-political moves in relation with Taiwan and wider Pacific area, which again it may help us to realise past actions and motifs in retrospective. I expect and wish we all learn more with the time. It's almost certain this area will be in the spotlight in the next years one way or another.

…except for the fact that Xi expects to reassert control over Taiwan before he dies, and is on record saying it must happen by the 100th anniversary of the PRC in 2049. Taiwan isn’t going to take that lying down, and the moment China attacks Taiwan they will be a global pariah, throwing the tech supply chain and world trade into chaos again, and possibly starting a hot war with the U.S. and its Pacific allies, dragging in the rest of NATO through Article 5.

Taiwan is complicated man. Back in 1970s US agreed to One China policy. At the time that helped further estranging communist Russia & China which was in line with US interests.

In a 1972 joint communiqué with the PRC, the United States "acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China" and "does not challenge that position".

Later Bill Clinton visited Shanghai during his June 1998 visit to China and articulated the "three nos" for United States foreign policy towards China: (1) not recognizing two Chinas, (2) not supporting Taiwanese independence, and (3) not supporting Taiwanese efforts to join international organizations for which sovereignty is a membership requirement.

Then the 3 points became 5:

The position of the United States, as clarified in the China/Taiwan: Evolution of the "One China" Policy report of the Congressional Research Service (date: 9 July 2007) is summed up in five points:
1. The United States did not explicitly state the sovereign status of Taiwan in the three US-PRC Joint Communiqués of 1972, 1979, and 1982.
2. The United States "acknowledged" the "One China" position of both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
3. U.S. policy has not recognized the PRC's sovereignty over Taiwan;
4. U.S. policy has not recognized Taiwan as a sovereign country; and
5. U.S. policy has considered Taiwan's status as unsettled.
 
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Yes, these were all formalities that Nixon and Kissinger pursued to try to open the door with China, because they thought that if China got a taste of world trade and capitalism and it raised their standard of living, they would liberalize politically. This was a fundamental misunderstanding on the part of the U.S., and now we’re tied at the hip to a totalitarian regime representing 1/6 of the world’s population, using their soft power to subvert democratic principles around the globe.

One China hasn’t worked, and it won’t ever work as long as a strongman like Xi is behind the wheel. We already saw them renege on their pledge to leave Hong Kong’s political and economic systems intact for 50 years after the end of the British lease, so it’s already clear what will happen if they retake Taiwan.

Taiwan is what’s left of the pre-Communist Chinese government. These were the people who helped the U.S. fight Japan in WWII. We owe them. And frankly, if you care about peace and standards of living, it’s in everyone’s interest to promote the liberalization of east Asia, as the Japanese and South Koreans can attest.

Given the world’s dependence upon Chinese manufacturing for low-end electronics and mechanical tooling, and the world’s dependence upon Taiwan for high-end electronics, we’re all screwed if China invades Taiwan. Say what you want about Donald Trump, but his tariff schedule started to wean a lot of companies off of China’s manufacturing teat, and the Biden administration has continued those policies for a reason. It’s also great that we’re investing in getting high-end semiconductor manufacturing facilities built in lower-risk places than Taiwan, but it may be too little too late if China moves against them soon.
 
And U.S. law related to Taiwan and China specifically calls out a few things:
  • "The United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means"
  • "Any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, [is] a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States"
  • "[We will] provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character [and] maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan"
So the U.S. is actually bound by law to provide Taiwan with defensive weaponry unless Congress chooses to repeal that law.
 
And U.S. law related to Taiwan and China specifically calls out a few things:

Exactly.
What I genuinely want to explore with this thread is how and when US stance has shifted from "Taiwan is a part of China" to "[We will] provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character [and] maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan"

US and every major power have no friends, they have interests. Whatever US did back then it was because it suited them. And slowly but steadily they keep realigning their stance as per their interests. Nothing wrong with that. But I'm interesting to discover the timelines among others.

Clearly the 3 points by Clinton reflect a friendly stance towards China. By 2007 and the 5 points, I see a re-alignment of stance, etc. But it's interesting that this law came into force in 1979 which is confusing. If I had to guess I'd say this was after Clinton's 3 points not 20 years after.
 
What I genuinely want to explore with this thread is how and when US stance has shifted from "Taiwan is a part of China" to "[We will] provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character [and] maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan"
It never shifted. The latter was always the mindset -- it was performance art that was a prerequisite for the PRC to open up their market to the west. If the U.S. goes through the motions of ending formal governmental ties to the ROC in Taiwan, and not supporting Taiwan being represented as an independent country on the world stage, then the PRC was willing to talk. The U.S. acceded to this, but with the stipulation that were we going to continue to provide for the defense of Taiwan, and that the PRC wasn't going to forcefully retake the island. That's the through line on everything.

Clearly the 3 points by Clinton reflect a friendly stance towards China.
I don't think we've ever had a "friendly" stance toward the PRC, though Jiang Zemin seemed like he was more open to the sorts of market reforms that the U.S. hoped would help to liberalize mainland China over the long run, and Clinton's presidency overlapped with Jiang's.

By 2007 and the 5 points, I see a re-alignment of stance, etc. But it's interesting that this law came into force in 1979 which is confusing. If I had to guess I'd say this was after Clinton's 3 points not 20 years after.
Hu Jintao was less inclined to keep markets as open as Jiang, and Xi Jinping has obviously been even more willing to assert state control in the private sector however he sees fit. Any tweaking of position in 2007 was likely in response to Hu's actions vs. Jiang's, but the overall stance hasn't really changed from the U.S.'s side. We agree to put on the dog and pony show of marginalizing Taiwan's independent status on the world stage in exchange for access to the PRC's market, while still providing for Taiwan's military defense.

The hope from the U.S. side was that the PRC would eventually liberalize and could peacefully reintegrate with Taiwan as an open, democratic China. That hope has obviously died with Xi being installed as de facto emperor for life, providing a high-enough standard of living for his people while still exercising totalitarian control. I'd hoped that the budding protests to Zero COVID might have been the spark of a counter-revolution, but Xi shrewdly changed tack when he saw that people were starting to seriously stand up against him across the nation. Now the only real hope is that when China's ridiculous housing bubble finally bursts and everyone loses their real estate investments in ghost cities, that might finally piss them off enough to stand up to him.
 
Semi-related:

Anyone still on the fence about whether TikTok is a national security risk to any country that isn't China needs to read this in full.
 
Nice read, I saw some familiar behaviors there and was terrified when that piece of shit said that as a “capitalist,” he “didn’t believe” in maternity leave.

I had no doubt what the X government can do nor any of its people have any illusions. We know. Also there were never any doubts that any US Social App would be a security threat to every country in war with them no matter what those private companies might say.
The difference is that the X government has banned those Apps a decade+ ago. And US is following this autocratic fashion banning it by legislation instead of just telling to their people and let them decide by themselves, the “democratic” way. In any case those two countries are not even remotely at war yet, so why not?

The answer is on this 13 minutes video that I recommend you to watch. This will be my answer to you and hopefully food for thought for further discussion.

:)

 
The answer is on this 13 minutes video that I recommend you to watch. This will be my answer to you and hopefully food for thought for further discussion.
Thanks for that. I agree with about 2/3 of what he had to say, but there are multiple issues being conflated here, and I think some of them promote false equivalency arguments. Also, his claim that the U.S. is trying to build its own Great Firewall is laughable on its face.

The main topics here appear to be:
  1. Should U.S. spy agencies (or any other agency) be able to look at personal data collected on U.S.-based servers without a warrant?
  2. Should the U.S. allow any company to collect this sort of invasive personal data on its users?
  3. Does the U.S. have the standing to make a moral argument against TikTok's abuse of personal data?
  4. Should the U.S. government take direct action to prevent CCP access to user data collected by TikTok and CCP influence over content delivery via TikTok?
  5. If the U.S. government takes direct action, should it be specifically against TikTok, or should it be through the establishment of general rules that would prevent TikTok from operating the way they currently do?
Topic #1: the answer is an obvious NO. It's completely unconstitutional and against the stated mission of the NSA. It was yet another unacceptable privacy rollback courtesy of the George W. Bush administration, and its continuation was probably my greatest disappointment re: the Obama administration. The treatment of Snowden was outrageous, though he also disclosed a giant dump of classified information to a journalist without going through the proper channels first, so he clearly violated some laws and should accept some form of punishment for that. There are at least 4 active lawsuits against the U.S. government that were filed in 2013-2014 on this topic, and the wheels of justice turn slowly, but my hope is that this horseshit will finally be resolved once one of those suits inevitably succeeds, or once they all make it to the Supreme Court and get shot down in a series of bogus 5-4 decisions (Roberts would never go along with that crap). People should go to prison over the existence of the PRISM program, period.

Topic #2: Probably not. Thankfully Europe has set the tone for this with the GDPR, and a number of U.S. states (CA and OR to name a couple) have followed suit with similar legislation, so unless every company wants to carefully geofence their data collection down to the state and province level, it's going to make more business sense for them to just implement GDPR-style user controls across the board. So in the end it will probably be a moot point that the federal government hasn't taken action on this. But, PRISM issue aside, there is a fundamental difference between U.S.-based corporations collecting data on U.S. citizens that they use for targeted advertising purposes, and a foreign corporation that's a stooge for an autocratic government collecting data on foreign citizens that they use to further their political goals. The point that Google et al. are collecting data on non-European foreign citizens without explicit consent for use in targeted advertising is a valid one, but it's not equivalent to what China-based companies are doing, even with the PRISM issue. And if other countries enforced legislation similar to the GDPR, or placed other restrictions on what data foreign companies were allowed to collect on their citizens, that would be completely reasonable.

Topic #3: A qualified yes. Is there standing for the U.S. to complain about the collection of personal data? No. Is there standing for the U.S. to complain about how it's used? Yes, though it's shakier after the PRISM revelations. China harvests all the data they can on everyone they can to try to achieve total information awareness, and they use that information to manipulate and bully anyone they can, whether it's their own citizens, foreign citizens, or members of foreign governments. China gleefully weaponizes this data in a way that the U.S. government does not. Once these PRISM law suits are resolved, we'll hopefully get back to a warrant being required for the U.S. government to access this sort of information, which is the way it always had been and always should be, and at that point the U.S.'s moral standing on that issue would be fully restored, IMO.

Topic #4: While I see your argument (and the video's argument) for just having the U.S. government inform people of the threat and ask them to choose not to participate, the consequences of allowing many government employees to choose to opt in would affect far more than just the person who consented to be spied on by China. It is completely reasonable for the government to ban the use of such an app on all government devices and in all government premises at a minimum. Even family members of certain government officials could be used as a proxy by China to abuse similar information, though, so it's hard to just draw the line at government employees and facilities. It's also worth noting that over 1/3 of Gen Z in the U.S. use TikTok at least once a month, so the idea of allowing China to harvest data on that large of a cross section of the U.S.'s young adult population for intentionally nefarious use is pretty appalling.

Also consider that the logical extension of your argument here would be that it would always be more "democratic" for the U.S. to just ask people politely to not do bad things that could potentially harm others in addition to themselves, rather than actually legislate against it. By that line of reasoning should we decriminalize drunk driving (I mean, you're not guaranteed to crash into someone else), sharing of classified information (hey, it's just words and stuff), libel and slander, etc.? Of course not. If you're letting 1/3 of an entire generation of Americans unwittingly arm China with the information needed to bully and manipulate them, it would be grossly negligent to not put a stop to it. And there are multiple ways to accomplish that which are still consistent with American values. So the answer to #4 is a big fat YES.

Topic #5 is an interesting question, and I think in the general case the answer should be abstract rules that cover the TikTok situation as well as anything comparable to it. The objection to what's going on is a principled one, and any legislation should tackle that principle, while also addressing the immediate issue with TikTok. The only exception to this would be dealing with a specific, imminent threat where we don't really have the luxury of time to fully investigate the broader issue before we need to act to protect our national security interests, in which case targeted legislation with a commitment to follow through with a broader review and more general rules would be appropriate. Are we at that point now with TikTok? Possibly.

I do agree that targeting a specific company is problematic in principle. We should establish common standards for what sort of information can and cannot be shared with foreign companies and governments, and hold everyone to them with strict penalties. This would provide a path for TikTok to either stop collecting problematic information, or to sever problematic ties with China and China-based entities if they want to keep collecting information that shouldn't leave our shores. Though any outcome that keeps TikTok running in the U.S. would leave the door open for criminal off-book sharing of the information back to China, which we know would still happen, since these are the fuckers that run underground police stations in foreign countries to bully people abroad, and who threaten the family members of Canadian MPs and whomever else to push their political agenda.

The U.S. cannot allow China to build total information awareness on a large plurality of an entire generation of Americans. The risks are simply too large. And it's possible to stop most of that (or at least massively slow it down) with measures that are still consistent with American values.
 
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Here's my incredibly simplified opinion on China's surveillance specifically: I'm already spied on by the US, I don't really need to also be spied on by China so any effort to prevent this from happening is a plus in my book.
 
@Jer

A few things. First, as usually is the case for States /Federations nomenclature as well as Communist Parties, adjective (Communist) goes first, name of the country goes in the end and noon (i.e. Party), goes in the middle. Thus CPC not CCP. Imagine AUS (American United States) instead of USA, it doesn't look nice. Not too important, but why not calling things with their correct.

Another misconception, which is quite important is that ByteDance is a private company. It's not China. Same as Google is not US. Treating the App TikTok, which operates separately and more in line with liberal international standards than Douyin, as a direct government agent has some base, but it's not fair. Similar albeit not in same league of gravity, treating Google as if they were direct US agents it wouldn't be fair. I have zero doubts that Google will sometimes act as an agent in case of war.

Third, US is not in war with China even if it acts as if this is inevitable and unnecessarily escalates the tensions, i.e. Officials visiting Taiwan month in month out lately, AUKUS, Philippines, up the game with Japan, South Korea.
They repeatedly warn China via EU not to sell arms to Russia and same time they up their game of selling arms to Taiwan!!
Just for the record, US officially declares that "we do not support Taiwan independence" and "and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means."

All the above is to say, that yes, TikTok must be fixed, but must be fixed right, as there's no such urgency, or shouldn't be. Tensions with China are generated largely from US who seem to be rushing into a conflict like if there's no tomorrow.

The 5th point of your post is the most important: "If the U.S. government takes direct action, should it be specifically against TikTok, or should it be through the establishment of general rules that would prevent TikTok from operating the way they currently do?"

And here the answer is NO. You made your argument based on urgency, when there's none. The "urgency" it's artificial, mostly created by US for reasons that I don't understand at all. If China were so imminent threat Biden should go easy on Putin and try to bring him on his side instead of adding fuel by calling him names 4 months into his presidency.
Except if they miscalculated and the plan was to finish fast with Russia via sanctions and then go to the main plate of China. Could be but again, why that hurry?

In any case, TikTok must be fixed correctly and that is with a set of rules to apply to everyone. US is supposed to be supportive of free markets and not an autocratic state. Those things matter. And targeting a specific company in a supposed free market can be as damaging as abusing their position with dollar and freezing (even seizing!) Russian assets. Which maybe it was decided in order to end the war quickly but the principal was wrong and maybe the consequences (de-dollarisation, speed up of multi-polarity) will be dire.

The U.S. cannot allow China to build total information awareness on a large plurality of an entire generation of Americans. The risks are simply too large. And it's possible to stop most of that (or at least massively slow it down) with measures that are still consistent with American values.

Yes I fully agree for both points.
But concerning the bolded, what other way there is to doing that other than apply set of rules to apply to all companies, foreign and domestic? Because don't forget that if they target foreign companies then they damage the freedom of the Market which is a cornerstone in defining US to themselves and the world.

We should establish common standards for what sort of information can and cannot be shared with foreign companies and governments, and hold everyone to them with strict penalties.

This as explained above could be very damaging. Better to apply those standards to all companies. 6th January 2021 which provided the playbook how to defunct US democracy in the future, partially happened due to spying features (i.e. targeting algorithms) in social media. See, if you don't fix it right the enemy can appear also from within.
 
First, as usually is the case for States /Federations nomenclature as well as Communist Parties, adjective (Communist) goes first, name of the country goes in the end and noon (i.e. Party), goes in the middle. Thus CPC not CCP.
Interesting, since all the Chinese immigrants I speak to here abbreviate it "CCP", as does one of the linked articles below. But you're obviously closer to the source than I am.

Another misconception, which is quite important is that ByteDance is a private company. It's not China. Same as Google is not US.
I hope you're not trying to claim that a so-called "private" company in China operates with full independence from the government and the Communist Party in the same way that a private company in the U.S. does. China regularly "disappears" domestic businessmen who are too successful, sometimes temporarily and sometimes permanently. The threat there is always implicit. Foreign companies who want to do business in China are required to partner with a domestic company in a joint venture where the domestic company retains >50% ownership (gee, I wonder why). The Chinese government actively steals IP from foreign companies through cyberattacks while their domestic "private" partners in crime have institutionalized stealing IP from foreign clients and joint venture "partners". And let's not get started on all the bribes and kickbacks going between so-called "private" companies and the Communist Party.

In a totalitarian country there is no meaningful separation between "private" companies and the state. The government will leave them alone until they want something from them or want to teach them a lesson for getting too uppity, and then the company will bend over and do the party's will. Surely you're not naive enough to argue otherwise...?

Treating the App TikTok, which operates separately and more in line with liberal international standards than Douyin, as a direct government agent has some base, but it's not fair. Similar albeit not in same league of gravity, treating Google as if they were direct US agents it wouldn't be fair.
As you yourself state, this is not in the "same league of gravity", so calling it similar is disingenuous. If the U.S. government oversteps, Google can sue them -- and in the United States, where the judiciary is a separate and co-equal branch of government, a law suit can actually stop the government from imposing its will. Apple has resisted attempts at executive branch intrusion and has been largely successful. PRISM is obviously a huge black eye in this area for the U.S., but it currently has at least 4 law suits open against it, and eventually justice will be done, even if it comes slowly. Clearly there would be no comparable checks and balances on the Chinese side if the government or the party wanted Bytedance to do something for them.

I have zero doubts that Google will sometimes act as an agent in case of war.
You have a point here, and as I've acknowledged elsewhere, it would be entirely reasonable for foreign governments to be skeptical and err on the side of overregulating what information U.S. companies are allowed to collect and what they're allowed to do with it. Europe's GDPR is the sensible response to this.

Third, US is not in war with China even if it acts as if this is inevitable and unnecessarily escalates the tensions, i.e. Officials visiting Taiwan month in month out lately, AUKUS, Philippines, up the game with Japan, South Korea.
China regularly takes aggressive action against the west in every area outside of overt military aggression (and occasionally they toy with that too in the Taiwan strait). This is the literal definition of a cold war, and China is the primary aggressor. This has been the explicitly internally-declared strategy of the party since at least 1999. Ignoring this truth is foolish.

They repeatedly warn China via EU not to sell arms to Russia and same time they up their game of selling arms to Taiwan!!
Just for the record, US officially declares that "we do not support Taiwan independence" and "and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means."
Yes, but you conveniently ignore everything else in the statement you just linked to. The U.S. is committed by law to the defense of Taiwan and the prevention of any non-peaceful means of reunification with the mainland. The One China policy is performance art -- a formal stance required by the PRC to have normalized relations with them. So while we formally acknowledge only one China, the PRC, we still have a de facto embassy in Taiwan (we just call it the "American Institute In Taiwan"), we still have informal diplomatic relations with the Taiwanese government, and we are still committed to their defense, both in material and in deed.

Russia is trying to reintroduce imperialism into Europe, destabilizing the region and the world economy in the process. If China throws in with them, we're potentially looking at the development of an explicit axis of Russia/China/Iran/North Korea against the western world, with south Asia and Africa being used as pawns by both sides. This would be terrible for everyone. Also, if Putin is allowed to retain any Ukrainian land at the end of the war, this sets a terrible precedent for China to invade Taiwan.

Right now the west's response to Putin is giving China a preview of what will happen to them if they try to take Taiwan; but it would actually be markedly worse in China's case, because American forces will absolutely come to the defense of the island, and the moment China attacks American forces they're at war with all of NATO and the U.S.'s Pacific allies. If that doesn't count as WWIII, I'm not sure what would.

All the above is to say, that yes, TikTok must be fixed, but must be fixed right, as there's no such urgency, or shouldn't be.
Why is there no urgency? Every day China is maturing their total information awareness system with all the data they harvest from WeChat, the Great Firewall, facial templates from ID cards, visas, and TikTok, ubiquitous "security" cameras, and what have you. There's no domestic regulation preventing them from fully abusing that information to build profiles of every person that has contacted their web of information and using that to pursue their goals through bullying and intimidation, be it through secret police stations in foreign countries, threats made to China-based families of foreign members of government, or using personal information to more successfully target foreigners of interest with sex spies.

The faucet is on, and the water bill is only going up. Why wait to stop the flow when you already know what's happening?

Tensions with China are generated largely from US who seem to be rushing into a conflict like if there's no tomorrow.
This is an astonishingly misinformed comment. Read Unrestricted Warfare and peruse any number of "wolf warrior diplomacy" comments coming from China over the past several years and try to say that again with a straight face. The U.S. is just calling out what every free world government already knows China is doing.

You made your argument based on urgency, when there's none. The "urgency" it's artificial, mostly created by US for reasons that I don't understand at all.
Detailed information on 1/3 of an entire generation of Americans is being collected by a company under the thumb of an aggressive, totalitarian foreign power who has repeatedly shown gleeful motivation to use that sort of information to attack the U.S. non-militarily. They have already used this power to surveil foreign journalists, and they can also potentially use it to assert influence on the opinions of 1/3 of young adults in this country. This is an obvious imminent threat. What part of that do you still fail to understand?

If China were so imminent threat Biden should go easy on Putin and try to bring him on his side instead of adding fuel by calling him names 4 months into his presidency.
Nonsense. Putin's actions in Ukraine are both an immediate military and economic threat to the west, and a canary in the coal mine for Xi's ambitions vs. Taiwan. If you appease Putin you also embolden Xi. And an emboldened Xi will start WWIII by invading Taiwan.

TikTok must be fixed correctly and that is with a set of rules to apply to everyone. US is supposed to be supportive of free markets and not an autocratic state. Those things matter. And targeting a specific company in a supposed free market can be as damaging as abusing their position with dollar and freezing (even seizing!) Russian assets.
Free markets, yes. Anarchic markets, no. The genesis of U.S. antitrust law in the late 1890s came from rampant corruption, collusion, and cornering of overly free markets, and was drafted with specific companies in mind. Though yes, it was drafted as general rules, which is the way things should ideally be done, and the way things should always be done for the long term.

what other way there is to doing that other than apply set of rules to apply to all companies, foreign and domestic? Because don't forget that if they target foreign companies then they damage the freedom of the Market which is a cornerstone in defining US to themselves and the world.
Domestic companies are fully governed by domestic law. Foreign companies operating in the U.S. are only partially governed by domestic law. TikTok is a perfect example of this, where the U.S. subsidiary can feign ignorance and claim they're doing everything by the book, but the long arm of the PRC can reach in and take data or exert influence any way they choose, and the U.S. can't realistically prevent that from happening as long as the subsidiary shares ties to China. When a domestic subsidiary of a company starts acting like an aggressive foreign agent, it's not in any way unreasonable to address that directly.

If by common rules you mean also handling the case where a fully domestic company is somehow being overtly influenced by an adversarial foreign power, then sure, I would support that.

6th January 2021 which provided the playbook how to defunct US democracy in the future, partially happened due to spying features (i.e. targeting algorithms) in social media. See, if you don't fix it right the enemy can appear also from within.
I do agree that the U.S. needs to have a reckoning with our domestic social media companies over what data is collected, how it's used, and what the demonstrable social impact of their content delivery systems has been. This is also relevant to the recent proliferation of machine-learned algorithms in many other arenas, where no one even has any visibility into how they're making their decisions, because they essentially outsourced the stat crunching to the machine and said "make it work, I don't care how". But that requires a level of technical savvy that most people over 60 just don't have, and it's hard to motivate younger people to run for office because politics is such a horribly shitty business that most sane people want nothing to do with it.

In fairness to the tech companies, there probably weren't a whole lot of people thinking that their little slice of the internet could have such broad negative cultural effects in the early going, and it does take years for enough evidence and study to pile up to be able to draw reasonable conclusions about things. But given all the creepy anecdotes about Facebook actively listening to your conversations even when it's not "on", etc., there are obviously some shenanigans going on there, and once proof emerges via a whistleblower there will be huge law suits, and years later, some consequences.

Limiting what companies can collect and what they can do with personal data does make good sense. Regulating how certain algorithms are allowed to work when they're applied toward things that could carry significant risk would also make good sense. But regardless of what the western countries do, China will still be collecting every scrap of information they can find and looking for ways to exploit it without any of those same kinds of safeguards in place. And we all need to worry about where that leads.
 
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I hope you're not trying to claim that a so-called "private" company in China operates with full independence from the government and the Communist Party in the same way that a private company in the U.S. does. China regularly "disappears" domestic businessmen who are too successful, sometimes temporarily and sometimes permanently. The threat there is always implicit. Foreign companies who want to do business in China are required to partner with a domestic company in a joint venture where the domestic company retains >50% ownership (gee, I wonder why). The Chinese government actively steals IP from foreign companies through cyberattacks while their domestic "private" partners in crime have institutionalized stealing IP from foreign clients and joint venture "partners". And let's not get started on all the bribes and kickbacks going between so-called "private" companies and the Communist Party.

I know all that but still there are procedures and some kind of checks and balances. Of course they don't operate with the same independence but it's not a banana republic either. A private company is a private company. Can it be used as a back door for the government? Yes. Which is true for US by the way for all the Facebooks and Googles. Much easier than the latter, but again: not as easy as if they were public or build for that purpose.
In here, unlike Western States, nobody is more powerful than the government. No matter how rich. Yes I know those stories.
I don't see how IP is relevant. The laws for IP are different here and country's growth owe a ton to those laws. Western Capitalism didn't seem to care back when they brought their factories here to cut costs and now they regret it dearly.
Remember: China wouldn't be a thing without the greed for higher margins and profits from the West.

In a totalitarian country there is no meaningful separation between "private" companies and the state. The government will leave them alone until they want something from them or want to teach them a lesson for getting too uppity, and then the company will bend over and do the party's will. Surely you're not naive enough to argue otherwise...?

There is Jer, of course there is. This is the second largest economy in the world with breath-taking infrastructure not some kind of third world banana republic. You can't build this without a set of solid rules and procedures, not in a short 30 years. Take a step back and consider the above and that maybe just maybe you are being naive.

As you yourself state, this is not in the "same league of gravity", so calling it similar is disingenuous. If the U.S. government oversteps, Google can sue them -- and in the United States, where the judiciary is a separate and co-equal branch of government, a law suit can actually stop the government from imposing its will. Apple has resisted attempts at executive branch intrusion and has been largely successful. PRISM is obviously a huge black eye in this area for the U.S., but it currently has at least 4 law suits open against it, and eventually justice will be done, even if it comes slowly. Clearly there would be no comparable checks and balances on the Chinese side if the government or the party wanted Bytedance to do something for them.
You have a point here, and as I've acknowledged elsewhere, it would be entirely reasonable for foreign governments to be skeptical and err on the side of overregulating what information U.S. companies are allowed to collect and what they're allowed to do with it. Europe's GDPR is the sensible response to this.
Apple has done wonderfully up to now against US government, but it compromised its values much more when it had to face the Chinese one. Still well done though.
But don't see Google from the POV of America, all that I'm saying is that those American companies can act and will act as US agents in the time of war. So any country that is not America and especially not allies, should be very careful with that.
GDPR is a step in the right direction but it mostly addresses privacy, not security.

China regularly takes aggressive action against the west in every area outside of overt military aggression (and occasionally they toy with that too in the Taiwan strait). This is the literal definition of a cold war, and China is the primary aggressor. This has been the explicitly internally-declared strategy of the party since at least 1999. Ignoring this truth is foolish.
Yes, but you conveniently ignore everything else in the statement you just linked to. The U.S. is committed by law to the defense of Taiwan and the prevention of any non-peaceful means of reunification with the mainland. The One China policy is performance art -- a formal stance required by the PRC to have normalized relations with them. So while we formally acknowledge only one China, the PRC, we still have a de facto embassy in Taiwan (we just call it the "American Institute In Taiwan"), we still have informal diplomatic relations with the Taiwanese government, and we are still committed to their defense, both in material and in deed.

No come on. What US is doing in the background since AUKUS, but especially since the war in Ukraine started, is unheard. They are fast-tracking selling of arms to Taiwan with the same emergency authority as if it was Ukraine, this is a huge escalation.
From Reuters: As part of 2023 budget Congress authorised up to $1 billion worth of weapon for Taiwan, using Presidential Drawdown Authority a type of authority that expedites security assistance and has helped to send arms to Ukraine.

This is huge Jer.
And there is zero, zero provocation from China. UN has recognised "Taiwan is a part of China" don't forget that. Where is US lawfulness here in selling arms with this level of urgency?

Committed to their defence from what? There is one China, Taiwan is stated as part of China in the UN and US is committed to a peaceful solution. Defence from what? From where this Ukraine type of urgency comes from? This is just a "strategic ambiguity" another word for double standard and nothing else.

And again. Don't forget the AUKUS, deals with Japan, Korea, join military drills with Philippines that is happening right now.

Russia is trying to reintroduce imperialism into Europe, destabilizing the region and the world economy in the process. If China throws in with them, we're potentially looking at the development of an explicit axis of Russia/China/Iran/North Korea against the western world, with south Asia and Africa being used as pawns by both sides. This would be terrible for everyone. Also, if Putin is allowed to retain any Ukrainian land at the end of the war, this sets a terrible precedent for China to invade Taiwan.

If.
If US keeps escalating in Taiwan which all shows it will, I see it as a certainty and I wouldn't blame Chinese for that. My take is that US see a window of opportunity to create a conflict with China in X years from now. I hear a lot 2025 and 2027.
After that they probably feel it will be too late for them to stop Chinese. Stop them from what? Growth? Obviously but which exactly growth they fear?
Because this is not about Taiwan, Empires just care about themselves. Stop their military might? Their economic growth??

Why they can't accept that others can be as powerful as they are? And fucking live in peace.

Right now the west's response to Putin is giving China a preview of what will happen to them if they try to take Taiwan; but it would actually be markedly worse in China's case, because American forces will absolutely come to the defense of the island, and the moment China attacks American forces they're at war with all of NATO and the U.S.'s Pacific allies. If that doesn't count as WWIII, I'm not sure what would.

Yes Jer. And this is why US need to cool it down.

Why is there no urgency? Every day China is maturing their total information awareness system with all the data they harvest from WeChat, the Great Firewall, facial templates from ID cards, visas, and TikTok, ubiquitous "security" cameras, and what have you. There's no domestic regulation preventing them from fully abusing that information to build profiles of every person that has contacted their web of information and using that to pursue their goals through bullying and intimidation, be it through secret police stations in foreign countries, threats made to China-based families of foreign members of government, or using personal information to more successfully target foreigners of interest with sex spies.

The faucet is on, and the water bill is only going up. Why wait to stop the flow when you already know what's happening?
This is an astonishingly misinformed comment. Read Unrestricted Warfare and peruse any number of "wolf warrior diplomacy" comments coming from China over the past several years and try to say that again with a straight face. The U.S. is just calling out what every free world government already knows China is doing.

Oh come on. US selling billions worth of arms to Taiwan in the state of emergency and you are talking about WeChat data? Come on.

Detailed information on 1/3 of an entire generation of Americans is being collected by a company under the thumb of an aggressive, totalitarian foreign power who has repeatedly shown gleeful motivation to use that sort of information to attack the U.S. non-militarily. They have already used this power to surveil foreign journalists, and they can also potentially use it to assert influence on the opinions of 1/3 of young adults in this country. This is an obvious imminent threat. What part of that do you still fail to understand?

Imminent threat is the selling of arms to Taiwan. What you describe is bad but can be fixed with the right kind of legislation. Not under urgency but a piece of legislation that will prevent spying anyway not just from one App.

Nonsense. Putin's actions in Ukraine are both an immediate military and economic threat to the west, and a canary in the coal mine for Xi's ambitions vs. Taiwan. If you appease Putin you also embolden Xi. And an emboldened Xi will start WWIII by invading Taiwan.

Appease Putin is one thing, but calling him outright murderer in April (I think) 2021 what exactly you expect to achieve from that? That is 2021. Especially if your foe is supposed to be China. Thus either Biden has been extremely foolish or miscalculated and was too confident that sanctions will down Russia too quickly.

Free markets, yes. Anarchic markets, no. The genesis of U.S. antitrust law in the late 1890s came from rampant corruption, collusion, and cornering of overly free markets, and was drafted with specific companies in mind. Though yes, it was drafted as general rules, which is the way things should ideally be done, and the way things should always be done for the long term.
Domestic companies are fully governed by domestic law. Foreign companies operating in the U.S. are only partially governed by domestic law. TikTok is a perfect example of this, where the U.S. subsidiary can feign ignorance and claim they're doing everything by the book, but the long arm of the PRC can reach in and take data or exert influence any way they choose, and the U.S. can't realistically prevent that from happening as long as the subsidiary shares ties to China. When a domestic subsidiary of a company starts acting like an aggressive foreign agent, it's not in any way unreasonable to address that directly.

If by common rules you mean also handling the case where a fully domestic company is somehow being overtly influenced by an adversarial foreign power, then sure, I would support that.

All I'm saying is that Facebook, Google and all other spying on us should be fixed too under the same umbrella laws that TikTok will be fixed.
What means fully domestic company in a supposedly free market? Can't you see that this double standard will backfire or compromise the function of that Market?
You should be happy that due to TikTok there is a window for US government to establish meaningful laws against spying wherever that comes from.

I do agree that the U.S. needs to have a reckoning with our domestic social media companies over what data is collected, how it's used, and what the demonstrable social impact of their content delivery systems has been. This is also relevant to the recent proliferation of machine-learned algorithms in many other arenas, where no one even has any visibility into how they're making their decisions, because they essentially outsourced the stat crunching to the machine and said "make it work, I don't care how". But that requires a level of technical savvy that most people over 60 just don't have, and it's hard to motivate younger people to run for office because politics is such a horribly shitty business that most sane people want nothing to do with it.

In fairness to the tech companies, there probably weren't a whole lot of people thinking that their little slice of the internet could have such broad negative cultural effects in the early going, and it does take years for enough evidence and study to pile up to be able to draw reasonable conclusions about things. But given all the creepy anecdotes about Facebook actively listening to your conversations even when it's not "on", etc., there are obviously some shenanigans going on there, and once proof emerges via a whistleblower there will be huge law suits, and years later, some consequences.

Limiting what companies can collect and what they can do with personal data does make good sense. Regulating how certain algorithms are allowed to work when they're applied toward things that could carry significant risk would also make good sense. But regardless of what the western countries do, China will still be collecting every scrap of information they can find and looking for ways to exploit it without any of those same kinds of safeguards in place. And we all need to worry about where that leads.

Nothing particularly to add here, except what I already said about fix the issue correctly, I mostly agree with those comments.

Below an interesting video that partly explains how and why US miscalculated about (the rise of) China and disaster in Ukraine.
Hint: Because during their uni-polar "moment" of almost 30 years, 1991 -2017 they were too powerful and this either made them naive or they didn't care of consequences. Or both.

 
Democracy, imperialism and pledged support aside; why would the US or the collective West want China to take control over Taiwan? That is where most of the chips and semiconductors come from, and China would very much use that for geopolitical gains at the expense of their adversaries. That alone is a good reason for propping up Taiwan's self-defence ability. Also, didn't China pledge to allow Hongkong self-rule (one country, two systems) until 2050? What did they do again? The Chinese are far less a benevolent force than the U.S (Bush regime aside), and that's saying something; no other country is operating a world wide network of underground "police stations" abroad to surveillence and subvert Chinese dissidents/citizens on the scale they are doing (there are a few similar examples on a small scale by other authoritarian regimes). There is a mass of evidence for government interference and control over chinese companies. Where is the hard evidence to the contrary? You are making a matter-of-factly argument without backing it up with anything.
 
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Sure but what escalation of that level would achieve? Do you realise that they are selling arms to Taiwan under the same urgency like if it were Ukraine?
And by 2024 if not earlier TSMC's facilities in Arizona will be fully operational anyways. And I didn't say there's no interference I said private is still private. What hard evidence you need for that?

The Chinese are far less a benevolent force than the U.S (Bush regime aside)

Benevolent is a nice world for a country that spends on military as much as the next 8 countries do combined, has constantly been involved in installing dictatorships, regime changes, civil wars, proxy wars, colour revolutions, Monroe doctrine, testing napalms on people (Greeks during civil war). Also the only country to throw atomic bombs in major cities.
Right now on Taiwan front I see US being the provocators, Chinese are the reactors. It's not even close.
 
Benevolent is a nice world for a country that spends on military as much as the next 8 countries do combined, has constantly been involved in installing dictatorships, regime changes, civil wars, proxy wars, colour revolutions, Monroe doctrine, testing napalms on people (Greeks during civil war).
Right now on Taiwan front I see US being the provocators, Chinese are the reactors. It's not even close.
Exactly. As I said, "and that's saying something".

However, the notion that the U.S spends that much more is a bit misdirected. Salaries stand for a very large chunk of that. Chinese military salaries are nowhere near that level, same as Russian etc.
 
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Sure but what escalation of that level would achieve? Do you realise that they are selling arms to Taiwan under the same urgency like if it were Ukraine?
And by 2024 if not earlier TSMC's facilities in Arizona will be fully operational anyways. And I didn't say there's no interference I said private is still private. What hard evidence you need for that?
You are making a sweeping claim that the relationship between Chinese private companies and American are anywhere near similar. They are not. And yes, this is why the U.S subsidize semiconductor factories, but they cannot meet the demand, same as the ones the factories that the EU are propping up cannot. China will use Taiwan control for dominating the world supply of semi conductors; besides, a very large share of metals come from China anyway.

And Xi wants to take Taiwan by force. They want to defend themselves and maintain their democratic system. Buy all the arms you want.
 
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And Xi wants to take Taiwan by force. They want to defend themselves and maintain their democratic system. Buy all the arms you want.

Where did you find that? What is the hard evidence?
The only thing I see for now is US unnecessarily escalating like if there’s no tomorrow.

And don’t forget that all major countries have accepted One China policy, plus UN states clearly that Taiwan is part of China.

Arming Taiwan is another exhibition of double standards from collective West but chiefly from US as they are arming them, others just follow.
 
Xi/spokespersons has explicitly said he reserves the right to resort to force. The recent military exercises reinforces that ambition.
 
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Yes this is right. But that’s different this is the last resort. Using force it will be catastrophic for the union and Chinese know it.

US instead of using arms and escalating could work on brokering some kind of agreement that Taiwan will not become HK. You know, peace.
 
What worth and trust could be attributed to such an agreement? That went out the window when they threw the Hongkong agreement out the window and subverted Hongkong. The regime does evidently not abide by such treaties.
 
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