This is what I was thinking of. Also if anything comes out of the ongoing investigation of his Russia ties.
USA Politics
- Thread starter Genghis Khan
- Start date
Nobody wants Pence. The Trumpers will stay home in 2020 and it will be easy to energize democrats (although don't put it past them to still fuck it up anyway). If he got impeached before the midterms it would kill them in 2018. So you are only looking at 2 years max of Pence.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
Some people believe it does .. other say they do not believe it does ... there is not a whole lot of precedent around that .. namely because no one with his background has been elected. There is a line of thought that the Emoluments Clause was designed to prevent the President from essentially being bribed by foreign powers. I am not sure where that applies to agreements that were 100% legal in place prior to him taking office .. or in most cases before he ran for it. In any case, if he puts it in a trust, some people might not like that his kids are running it ... but that most likely covers it.
AlexS
Nomad
Correct. It's a totally unsettled question of law. Which means that in an impeachment proceeding, there would need to be extensive briefing and argument -- with the legal question of "What types of activities violate the Clause?" ultimately determined by the Senate -- before it then votes on whether the activities of which evidence is presented meet that standard.
If I were an anti-Trump Congressman, I'd have to think good and hard about whether I'd want to roll the dice on bringing a legally-dubious impeachment proceeding that would have both the legal and factual questions determined by a 52-48 GOP-majority Senate, which would then have to ultimately vote at least 67-33 to convict, before drawing up Articles.
A US president has never been convicted in an impeachment proceeding. The last time Congress tried it, and failed, a lot of people think that the backlash hurt the GOP for years to come -- it galvanized and angered the Democrats, who saw it as a politically-motivated overreach; the Senate went back to the Democrats in the next election; and Bush only won 2000 in a squeaker (the results of which many Democrats don't believe was legitimate to this day). Too many "what ifs" to say for sure, but I think without the backlash from the failed Clinton impeachment, Bush might have beaten Gore more decisively.
Democrats who want to get rid of Trump before 2020 would be well advised to wait until there's a more clear-cut impeachable offense, that they have a solid chance of flipping at least 15 GOP senators on a conviction vote, to start talking about that maneuver.
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bearfan
Ancient Mariner
That is the real trick ... Nixon would have been impeached with both Democratic and Republican votes ... Clinton was all one sides (think maybe a Dem or 2 in the House voted for it, would need to look it up) and Johnson was so long ago it really does not apply anymore.
If Trump (or any President) is to be impeached it really needs to be something that is at a Nixon level ... an area of unexplored law is not it.
If Trump (or any President) is to be impeached it really needs to be something that is at a Nixon level ... an area of unexplored law is not it.
I don't think the Democrats are the ones who will start impeachment procedures against Trump. I think at a certain point, especially if he does work on things like spending bills with the Dems, the GOP is more likely to launch those proceedings, figuring they can set up Pence.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
That seems unlikely unless he does something Nixon like .. the Senate and House GOPers certainly like Pence more than Trump .. but having a President from your party kicked out spells disaster. If the Dems do not like Trump, they would be best spending their time looking for the 2018/2020 elections. The impeachment talk of Trump is as stupid as those that said Obama should be impeached or W. Bush should be impeached
AlexS
Nomad
Sorry, but that makes no sense. There's a GOP majority in both houses of Congress -- they're the ones who are gonna control spending bills for at least the next two years. If Trump collaborates with Democrats on bills -- assuming there are any Democrats who'd risk angering their rabidly anti-Trump constituents by collaborating with him -- he'd have to have enough GOP support on those issues to get them through Congress in the first place, or they'd never get anywhere. Why would Congress take the political risk of impeachment, without a clear-cut basis for it, when they can just get their way by voting?
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
In the end, it really comes down to what he does ... the campaign was the campaign. If the economy booms he will get credit (and again, I think Presidents get way too much credit/blame for a lot of things beyond their control) and he (and the GOP) will be rewarded, if it tanks and/or some bad developments overseas ... he is toast. 1/3 of the country will vote for him no matter what, 1/3 against no matter what ... it is the middle 1/3 that will really decide it.
What if they aren't getting their way?
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
.. and they will get their way by nuking their own party? These guys are not politically stupid (for the most part. Add to that, they will probably be happy getting their way 70% of their way with this President after getting their way so little of the time with the outgoing President.
Remember Trump is a party outsider. If they got to the point where impeachment is even in the discussion then chances are dropping him wouldn't nuke the party. It's not the same risk as dumping a real member of the party. They could easily paint themselves as nonpartisan and pragmatic by getting rid of him at the right time, which would be a net positive for them.
AlexS
Nomad
Right now, impeachment talk is mostly a blow-off valve fantasy scenario for people who are struggling to accept the reality that yes, Trump is the new President. That fantasy scenario gave a lot of anti-war Democrats (and Greens and other assorted leftists) something to dream about and keep one another fired up when Bush was president (and gave a few left-wing congresspeople something to fundraise off).
The birther fantasy served the same purpose for some righties over the last 8 years -- people who couldn't accept the reality of President Obama comforted themselves with the fantasy that they could find some "magic bullet"(*) that would undo the whole thing.
The lefties will start the fantasy anew now with Trump, but unless he does something truly egregious -- which is not completely out of the realm of possibility, but not terribly likely -- nothing will come of it.
(*) in a purely figurative sense, of course.
The birther fantasy served the same purpose for some righties over the last 8 years -- people who couldn't accept the reality of President Obama comforted themselves with the fantasy that they could find some "magic bullet"(*) that would undo the whole thing.
The lefties will start the fantasy anew now with Trump, but unless he does something truly egregious -- which is not completely out of the realm of possibility, but not terribly likely -- nothing will come of it.
(*) in a purely figurative sense, of course.
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Overall, I think that if Trump leaves the presidency before his term is up, it will be because he gets bored and pulls a Palin.
Forostar
Ancient Mariner
Unfortunately for some who do not like criticism on the President, "getting used to" surely won't mean closing the eyes for dangerous policy and stupid behaviour. If Trump tolerantists won't stay alert, others will. The thought that everyone will calm down soon and meekly accept all upcoming events is as naive as Trump's foreign policy with Russia.
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Forostar
Ancient Mariner
People who are concerned by Trump's political impact do not struggle with the reality that he is the new President. On the contrary, because they understand this reality, they are concerned.
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Black Wizard
Pleb Hunter
After eight years I think we can all finally say "Thanks Obama" but for the right reasons this time. @Travis The Dragon will you join me?
RTC
Libera et impera!
I'm not saying Trump can't be criticised, but Trump's critics need to do it like adults, or they'll only strengthen his popularity. If this behaviour from the mainstream left continues, I could see Trump getting re-elected.
Myself, I'm doing my best to attack the retrograde right that shelter Trump. I don't want my hard work to be for nothing because the political left are behaving like children.