War starts as world parties

Perun

Perun

His name struck fear into hearts of men
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Russian tanks have entered Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia, says Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Georgia has been fighting separatists with ties to Russia in order to regain control of the province, which has had de facto independence since the 1990s.

Russian troops in the South Ossetian capital said their artillery had begun firing at Georgian forces, Russian news agencies reported.

Russia's president earlier promised to defend his citizens in South Ossetia.

Moscow's defence ministry said more than 10 of its peacekeeping troops in South Ossetia had been killed and 30 wounded in the Georgian offensive. At least 15 civilians are also reported dead.

(more in the link)

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Earlier on, I watched the opening of the Olympic Games, having already read about the hostilities before. When the Georgian team entered, the commentators said that news were just in that there had been massive bombings in the capital (though if it was the capital of South Ossetia or Georgia itself was not clear). The picture went right to an extremely grim-faced Putin watching the Georgian team (whose smiles did not look very cheerful at all) entering.
But just a minute afterwards, all was forgotten and the party went on.
 
The capital of South Ossetia.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080808/115908220.html

If they think they can wage war against Russian Federation they better disengage their Reality Distortion Field (TM). Bullshitters counting on Western and NATO support killing civilians and peacekeepers. Ok rant off, i won't get much subjective here. Do you guys think this could have any effect on U.S. elections? There's a number of U.S. forces in Tbilisi currently training Georgian troops, we are potentially looking at even more tensions between Russian Federation and NATO, and every warmonging increases rating of Republican party.
 
Please! Don't blame this on American Republicans too, like it or not, they are not responsible for ALL of the world's evil. Thanks for thinking so highly though.
 
I can't see it affecting the election unless it's sold in Alabama as a Russian invasion of Atlanta.
 
Deano said:
Please! Don't blame this on American Republicans too, like it or not, they are not responsible for ALL of the world's evil. Thanks for thinking so highly though.
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Deano, I don't think Zare was blaming the US or Republicans for anything. He was simply asking if it could affect the US, since there are Americans in the area.

And you're right. Republicans aren't responsible for 100% of the world's evil. There's also the Chicago Bears (5%) and Sharon Osbourne (2%). :bigsmile:
 
Deano, I don't think Zare was blaming the US or Republicans for anything. He was simply asking if it could affect the US, since there are Americans in the area.

And you're right. Republicans aren't responsible for 100% of the world's evil. There's also the Chicago Bears (5%) and Sharon Osbourne (2%).
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Yeah, I wasn't trying to come down too hard. I don't think Zare is one of "those guys" at all; but, as you know, there are plenty out there that find it too easy to lay all the blame of the world's ills on the American Repubican party now-a-days. It's a shame.

Have we bumped Sharon down to 2% now? I must not have received the memo, I thought she was still at 3.  :p
 
Yeah, i only connected American presence and interests in Georgia with the upcoming elections. In my view, democrats are more responding to hostility by talks, economic pressure, stuff like that, while republicans like to force the issue. So any potential threat to U.S. brings more points to republicans. IMHO.

The situation with South Ossetia, Transnistria and several other "renegade" ex-Soviet regions is much alike Kosovo situation. Yet, the western world comes up with double standards. Georgia, tired of vast autonomy and foreign peacekeepers in Ossetia, starts a military campaign. 1999 - Serbia did same in Kosovo. Even in legislature, i see no significant difference. Like Kosovo, post-WW2 international border acts of UN fixed borders of all states. Prior wars, colonizations, changes of rulers, are insignificant. Like Kosovo, these regions have much more foreigners than domestic people, and much more influence from neighbouring state than from it's own one.

No, i haven't changed my opinion, i don't think Kosovo should be indepedent, and nor should these regions. But, Georgian authorities pulled the trigger and attacked mostly civilian and peacekeeper forces' targets.

If you dig more into strategy of the incident, you may find that only portions of Federation's 58th army have been dispatched. That arm is more of a defensive force, with various anti-tank and anti-vehicle regiments, thus it's probably going to aid already-present Russian peacekeeping forces in Ossetia, repelling Georgian attacks on the region. 4th air army is present in the region too, and provides close-air support and air defence missions to 58th army. Su-27s and MiG-29s of the 4th air army are probably going to achieve air superiority over Ossetia, to block any attempt of Georgian air attack, while Su-24s and Su-25s will provide close air support and fight against Georgia's armed vehicles. Neither Fencers or Frogfoots were designed to inflict large-scale damage to bigger military instalations or bigger strategical/infrastructure targets.

As far as i know (as far as well-informed Russian public knows, to be more precise), none of the Russia's big-guns, such as Tupolevs, Su-27SM, Su-34, MiG-31, medium range mobile missile launchers and stuff have been dispatched from their main stations to conflicting region.

Peacekeepers can fight against rebels and terrorists, to defend against an army you need an army. Russia have dispatched a bare minimum of defensive forces to stop Georgian attacks on Ossetia. Believe it from someone that's been researching Russian military technology and tactics for a half of decade now : if they wanted, they could wipe Georgia's army and strategic targets in 48 hours, without using nuclear weapons.

I may be leaning towards Russia's viewpoint in global affairs, but these facts show for sure that they're only interested in preserving peace in Ossetia, not invading Georgia and inflicting damage because they want to join NATO like some western observers like to think. Su-25s attacking Tbilisi today went after key bridges and roads, together with naval lanes that form a backbone of Georgian army transportation in Ossetia campaign. Preemptive strike. Georgian forces shelled the city of Tskhinvali, not caring about civilians and killed plethora of people in the process.
Since i have a friend who has a friend who has a friend kind of insight into VVS operations, i'll post what i've found out here :

Russian peacekeepers have called 4th air army 7 times today for air support. Russian Mi-24's were trying to nullify Georgian Su-25 operations in the area. VVS's MiG-29s are going recon in the area, Mi-24's are going in without any precision-guided weapons (fuel-air bombs, mainly (FAB-100), and KGMUs). Also, a number of Hinds equipped with AAMs, Igla (Ossetian) and Tunguska (Russian) battalions are on hot standby.

Initial artillery attacks on Tskhinvali were guided through usage of Israeli-based Georgian UCAVs. They were taken down by a soft kill (probably 58th army's EW hardware jamming the links, UCAV goes down when the link with the station is terminated). Ossetians downed one Georgian Su-25 with 9K310. Georgians have lost four UH-1s by infantry fire, for one of them credit goes to Russian specials transported inside Mi-24. Russian recon flights confirmed ground crashes of two Georgian Su-25s, and one 3rd generation legacy MiG.

The source calles bullshit on reported shelling of Georgian territory by Russia's GRAD missiles, and the same source says that all VVS aircraft are counted for. No losses.

Meanwhile, Russian TV broadcasted an explosion of Georgian Su-25. Pilot's fate is uncertain, and i don't know if that's the one of several downed Frogfoots from two paragraphs above, or a new one. My source also reports that VVS has bombed the airstrip of Marneuli airfield, Vazali military base, and military posts in towns of Gori and Kareli.

Now the interesting part : source says that U.S. forces haven't passed much knowledge to Georgian army. Litteral quote - "they don't know war at all". There are stockpiles of rockets right beside ammunition spots inside bases. One volley of 8Kor from Mi-24 and that's it. Convoys of 70-80 vehicles are travelling in narrow formation without any AA cover. Nice training mission for Russian Hind pilots. 

The latest news are - 30 Georgian tanks have been destroyed by Ossetian forces in the region of South Ossetia capital city. And yeah, Georgia has cutted broadcast of all Russian TV and radio stations inside the country.
 
As I saw the opening of the games it was sad to see how politicized they are. All the commentators had to say was, "Oh what a bold political statement from such and such country," and "how brave of this country considering it's circumstances..." Blah blah blah... *sigh* even sadder was that everybody even Bush and Putin knew about the war and were discussing it AT THE COMMENCEMENT CEREMONY, but neither the Georgian or Russian athletes knew... not yet anyway...
 
Onhell said:
As I saw the opening of the games it was sad to see how politicized they are.
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Like it or not, but they are always politicised. They always have been, and they always will be. The games have always been at the centre of global attention, and they have always been subject to political statements, action and propaganda. Look at the games in 1936, 1972 or 1980. Even 2000 was political. They always are.

EDIT: Even the athletes themselves often make political statements.

Carlos-Smith.jpg
 
If, what Zare says is true, then I can't see Georgia lasting very long in a fight like this.  Russia's nuclear hardware might be old and their military strength may be weak, but having said that, they're still one of the best armed and equipped and trained armies in the world.  Georgia may end up being squashed here.

I don't know who's to blame.  I'll need to read up on it more.
 
Basically, what happened is this: The Ossetians are a people who have lived in the Caucasus for about 2000 years now, always quarreling with the Georgians. When Russia took over and turned into the Soviet Union, the Ossetian territory was divided into two political entities: North Ossetia, an autonomous republic in the Russian Soviet Republic and South Ossetia, having a similar status, but in the Georgian Soviet Republic. After the fall of the Soviet Union, both parts of Ossetia tried to reunite, but did not get either Russia's nor Georgia's consent. So, the South Ossetians started a liberation war against Georgia. The idea is that at least South Ossetia becomes independent, and they are turning to Russia for help; Russia will gladly help because Georgia is friendly to the West. However, the Ossetians don't know that once this is over, they will be heavily screwed by Russia, just like the Chechnyans were.

That's it in a nutshell anyway.
 
It's tough.  My understanding of the situation is still limited, and we'll never know who fired the first shots. But it looks like the president of Georgia has been trying to stem things, and even after he has offered ceasefires, members of his military have conducted offensive operations in South Ossetia.  Of course, Russia didn't have to send in the tanks, but they did have forces in the region, and some citizens (though I think the numbers have been severely overstated).

No doubt in my mind that Putin is using this as a way to extend his control over the region, and to force Georgia to abandon their plans of joining NATO.  The escalation is certainly Russia's fault.  Areas well outside of the combat zone have been bombed, and now it looks like the president of Georgia has asked for a declaration of war on Russia.  Zare's right - Russia's not pressing the Georgians very hard.  They are pressing just hard enough.  I really think this has been carefully orchestrated to pressure Georgia into constant escalating retaliation.

Look at it this way: Russia dispatched a column of 150 T-72s and BMP-2s to join the fighting.  By Russian standards, that's very small.  But by Georgian standards, it's nearly 1/3rd of their ENTIRE armed force.  The only way Georgia can hope to counteract that is to dispatch more of its armor to South Ossetia.  Thus, Russia can add in more.  Same with the air forces.  Russia has been doing just enough to tie up the Georgian air forces, and delivering just enough military strikes into Georgia itself to provoke the nation further.

I don't think you can argue that Poti is a military target for instance.  Though those claims aren't corroborated, striking bases near Tblisi...I think that once the Georgian government finishes declaring war, they've played right into Putin's hands.

I'm a little scared, guys.
I want to state that I am not saying I am absolving Georgia of blame here.  Certainly this was carefully calculated, and Georgia doesn't *have* to declare war.  However, it almost seems like Russia knew exactly how far they had to push Georgia.
 
LC is right, this conflict is not something that popped out just. I don't know how much of other thread participants know about Russia-Georgia hostilities, but it's been going for over two years now.

Forostar, there will be no "conquering Georgia". Like both LooseCannon and me analyzed, the Russian forces waging war there are just trying to break off Georgian attacks.

Georgian president tried one last diplomatic move several days ago when he tried to negotiate "full autonomy" to South Ossetia. The deal was rejected, Ossetians going for total indepedence. Georgian attack was a orchestrated military campaign that served as a backup plan in case diplomacy fails. It should have been a sort of the blitzkrieg, get in there and neutralize rebels as fast as possible. However, i don't know if it was intention, or tactical error, but civilians got killed, civilian targets got destroyed, and peacekeepers got under attack. There are a lot of Russian citizens there and a contigent of Russian peacekeepers.

Normaly, Russia responded to this brutal act.

Russia's nuclear hardware might be old and their military strength may be weak, but having said that, they're still one of the best armed and equipped and trained armies in the world.  Georgia may end up being squashed here.
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Don't get fooled, LC. Russia's tactical nuclear hardware is a generation ahead of anything else (google RT-2UTTH). They have introduced a lot of new weaponry and a lot of upgrades have been done in 21st century (credits to Putin). Which, again, makes me conclude that there's no interest in annihilating Georgian army. You see, there are a lot of new aircraft types and upgrades they could want to test in real warfare conditions, such as Su-34 Platypus. The thing, on paper, is more powerful in fighter-bomber role than F-15E Strike Eagle or any Hornet/Super Hornet variant. Going after lousy defended, but still defended and still in real war targets would be a great test. Yet, they aren't deployed.

I heard a western-sourced news that Tu-22M3 Backfires attacked regions of Georgia where U.S. troops are stationed. And one of them got downed. A free tip to bullshit propaganda journalists : next time, pick a better plane. Tu-22M3 fights ships, not military posts.

I don't think you can argue that Poti is a military target for instance.  Though those claims aren't corroborated, striking bases near Tblisi...I think that once the Georgian government finishes declaring war, they've played right into Putin's hands.

I'm a little scared, guys.
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I still think that Russians won't attack regions where U.S. troops are stationed, and i'd like to believe that U.S. won't do much more than usual "stop the war" kind of press speeches. Russia, on the other hand, is going to secure Ossetia, neutralize the Georgian attacking potential, and if all goes well in the matter of days situation in Ossetia will be what it was couple of days ago. Status quo.

Looks to me that Russia has been waiting for a chance to get hold of Georgia again, and now they've grabbed it.

This large, immoral, dirty, sick, aggressive, intolerant and fucked up country is really one of the most dangerous and irresponsible states in history. Will they ever learn from their horrible past?
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Forostar, if you see any difference here and in 1999 Serbia, please enlighten me. Now, Serbia is Georgia, Kosovo is Ossetia, and NATO/U.S. forces are Red Army.
 
Yes, if "international community" equals "NATO".

Russia has confirmed the loss of two aircraft - one Su-25 and Tu-22. Note : Tu-22 is not Tu-22M(2/3). Apart from the designation, it's totally different aircraft.
 
No matter what happens, Georgia is fucked. That's because Georgia has been fucked ever since it became independent. They've been fucked by their former president, who was the West's darling because he was the foreign minister of Gorbachev. They're fucked by their current president. They're fucked by Russia because of that Ossetia story- and because they want to become a part of the West. But the worst thing, that currently nobody mentions, is that they have another province that is much bigger and much more militant striving for independence, and they've been much more violent in the past- Abkhasia. And that's really been fucking them.

Sorry for the language, but there really is no better way to describe Georgia's situation. This is a typical situation of the post-Cold War world: There are no good guys, no bad guys, no winners and only losers. The idea of nation states has never worked in an area like the Caucasus anyway, and we should finally get rid of it here in support of another system.
 
I don't know what to do. Maybe split all countries in the Caucasus up and then form a federation from them. I don't know. All systems that have been tried there so far (including the current one) failed. On the Balkan, there isn't as much diversity. There we only have Christian Slavs, Muslim Slavs and Albanians. In the Caucasus, we have Slavic, Turkic, Iranian and indigenous peoples, Christians and Muslims of various confessions, as well as some strange Christo-Muslim mix religion, they all hate each other and are living on such tiny space... it's all such a huge fucking mess. There are regions called Cabardino-Balcaria and Carachai-Chercessia, where you can already see from their names that they can't work. Whoever comes up with a working peace plan does not only deserve the Nobel Prize, but he or she should be sanctified right away.
 
Zare said:
LC is right, this conflict is not something that popped out just. I don't know how much of other thread participants know about Russia-Georgia hostilities, but it's been going for over two years now.

Georgian president tried one last diplomatic move several days ago when he tried to negotiate "full autonomy" to South Ossetia. The deal was rejected, Ossetians going for total indepedence. Georgian attack was a orchestrated military campaign that served as a backup plan in case diplomacy fails. It should have been a sort of the blitzkrieg, get in there and neutralize rebels as fast as possible. However, i don't know if it was intention, or tactical error, but civilians got killed, civilian targets got destroyed, and peacekeepers got under attack. There are a lot of Russian citizens there and a contigent of Russian peacekeepers.

Don't get fooled, LC. Russia's tactical nuclear hardware is a generation ahead of anything else (google RT-2UTTH). They have introduced a lot of new weaponry and a lot of upgrades have been done in 21st century (credits to Putin). Which, again, makes me conclude that there's no interest in annihilating Georgian army. You see, there are a lot of new aircraft types and upgrades they could want to test in real warfare conditions, such as Su-34 Platypus. The thing, on paper, is more powerful in fighter-bomber role than F-15E Strike Eagle or any Hornet/Super Hornet variant. Going after lousy defended, but still defended and still in real war targets would be a great test. Yet, they aren't deployed.

I still think that Russians won't attack regions where U.S. troops are stationed, and i'd like to believe that U.S. won't do much more than usual "stop the war" kind of press speeches. Russia, on the other hand, is going to secure Ossetia, neutralize the Georgian attacking potential, and if all goes well in the matter of days situation in Ossetia will be what it was couple of days ago. Status quo.
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I can agree with a lot of what Zare's saying, but I really think a Georgian declaration of war on Russia changes the dynamic.  Likely what will occur is Russia will give a 2 day warning to foreigners in Georgia to GTFO, specifically pointed at the USMC.  If Russia's goal was to "secure Ossetia", they could do that without hitting areas outside of Ossetia.  It's very clear to me that the Russians aren't putting full military might in here yet.  But it seems to be just enough beyond what they needed to do to toss out the Georgians to convince the president of Georgia to act.

Zare, you're right with what you have to say about the Tu-22M.  But I doubt, highly, that the journalist got it right.  It's possible that there was just a mistake in identification.  And I was referring to Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal - their tactical one isn't within my personal knowledge range right now, so I'll default to your expertise there, though I understand they're doing a good job upgrading and securing their WMD currently.

I don't think Russia was prepared to appear the aggressor in this conflict, but if war is declared...they'll get their testing in, alright.
 
Now all Russia has to do is erase all records stating that Stalin was Georgian...
 
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