USA Politics

Winning the north and moderates will be his biggest challenge to be sure and will be what makes or breaks him.  The one advantage he will have over people like Bachmann, Cain, etc is that he will be viewed as having a legitimate chance to beat Obama.  Bachmann is filling the anti-Romney void (and he certainly has a lot of problems with conservatives from his Health Care law in Mass and honestly being a Morman does not help him).
 
True. I still think of the bunch that Romney would be the best president, mind you.

Don't underestimate Bachmann. Her support is legitimate, as she is an early and vocal Tea Party adopter. I don't think she'll win, but if she's forced to pick between establishment candidates as the race goes on, I do believe she could be a game-changer. If she outlasts Perry and has to pick between Romney and someone else, it would be quite interesting.

Perry gets very little play in the northern states, and I think that his nomination would kill some of the places where Obama is wavering, like Virginia and Pennsylvania. Ohio and Wisconsin, by the way, and even Florida, are going to be far more friendly to the Democrats this cycle due to the massive unpopularity of their governors. Pennsylvania is going to be key.
 
Virginia (a recent poll also shows Perry leading Romney by 4 points there)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the ... _blog.html

A whopping 62 percent of respondents approved of the job McDonnell was doing while just 26 percent disapproved in a May Washington Post poll — numbers that put him in the neighborhood of immensely popular Virginia Sen. Mark Warner (D).


GOP governors in WI, OH, and FL are certainly down in the polls, but Obama's numbers are also pretty low in those states as well (as are most any incumbants).
 
Yeah, but the governors in all three states have become focus for the ground game. Wisconsin, obviously, and also Ohio, are having a lot of grassroots movements, and the Republicans are getting demoralized. That will make a difference in three key states.

Virginia, hard to say what'll happen. It's later on in the schedule, iirc.
 
True and if their numbers do not go up (at least Walker's numbers are headin up) they will be a drag on the GOP, but the election will eventually come down to Obama v. GOPer.  Obama has an advantage of a weak GOP field and he will again raise a ton of money.
Interesting article from Politico on the topic of Obamas reelection challenges

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60640.html
 
The first wave of recall elections are over in Wisconsin.  The Dems tageted 6 GOP state Senators, they needed to win 3 to get a majoity.  They only won 2 with a huge turnout (1 was a case where the Senator left his wife and moved in with a staffer in another district and the other a GOPer in a heavily Dem district.  Two Dems are up for recall next week, GOP has a shot at one of the two seats. 
 
Pawlenty dropping out of the race is not really a surprise, this is not the year for a candidate like him and he really had no base in the party.  Him and Perry and pretty close, should Perry win the nomination, I would suspect Pawlenty would be on the short VP list.
 
I can see that. At this point, that's his best thought. Bachmann winning the Straw Poll was...expected.
 
I was a little surprised Paul did not win, candidates like that usually do well in these type of things and caucuses.  I would expect they will fall down the list once primaries kick in.  This is Perry versus Romney (unless Perry quickly flames out ala Phil Graham, Fred Thompson, etc).
 
I'm not sure if it's Perry vs. Romney. Romney still has a huge lead. Right now it's Bachmann vs. Perry for 2nd place and the chance to actually challenge Romney. Perry and Bachmann are going to fight each other hard in Iowa; Romney will win New Hampshire, and then Perry or Bachmann in South Carolina.

It will be an interesting year.
 
It should be a long year, since the GOP switched to proportional delegates, winning does not matter as much as winning by how much.  There are 3 debates over the next 2 1/2 weeks, they will show how much of a competitor Perry really is.  Probably the best bet for Romney is that Bachmann stays strong and she and Perry (along with Paul/Cain) split the conservative votes and Romney can win the establishment GOP (Huntsman being the only other candidate in that wing).  If Perry can come on strong and quickly, he can get this down to a 2 man race.  The next 3 weeks will probably tell if Perry is legit or if he will be this years Fred Thompson.
 
Did they switch to proportional delegates? That makes it MUCH more interesting. They probably don't use the superdelegate balance, though, do they?

This could actually go to the convention, if Perry and Romney duke it out hard. Or whoever flares out or flares in. Going to be very, very interesting. I say interesting because as a foreign observer, I have no real stake; I'd vote for Romney, personally.
 
I guess worse things could happen to the US than a president Romney. He seems to be an efficient politician with an eye for reality and no love for fanatic partisanship.
 
The GOP does not use Super Delegates, that is just the dems.    This is the first year for proportional delegates for the GOP, the other change of note is that quite a few states moved their primaries later to coincide with their own state wide primaries to save money (Super Tuesday only has 8 states), so the GOP nomination could potentially look like the last Democratic primary if it comes down to a 2 person race.  One person can still run away with it if you have candidates like Perry/Bachmann/Cain/Paul splitting votes and a guy like Romney winning 30% of each primary.  Pawlenty dropping out really helps Romney IMO, they were chasing the same voters.
 
If three people get enough candidates to go into it, it could be really interesting. A real horserace with a brokered deal. I doubt that'll happen, but we'll find out in January. Still, I am interested by this prospect.
 
I was slightly incorrect, the way the GOP rules are now is if a primary is before April 1, the delegates must be awarded proportionally.  Primaries after April 1 can be winner take all as before.  That pretty much assures someone will win by delegate count (with CA and some other big states after April).
 
Hmm, that is an interesting change. But it does give smaller candidates a chance to run longer. It really does change the dynamic of the race - Iowa tends to be a three-way horserace and this could help break it up. It makes it important for Romney to try in Iowa, and for Bachmann/Perry to try in New Hampshire.

I wonder how the 2008 nomination would have gone under those rules.
 
It is hard to say, McCain won a lot of states with under 40% of the vote bit probably still would have won with those numbers.  However, other campaigns probably would have adapted different strategies and some may have hung in longer. What this does allow is people like Paul and Cain to seat a fair delegates by winning 10% of the vote here and there and have at least an influence on the party platform.
 
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