Egypt (The chains are gone)

Perun

Perun

His name struck fear into hearts of men
Staff member
I guess this is worth a new thread....

Al Jazeera reports that Hosni Mubarak resigns as president. The Egyptian army has released a statement announcing the end of the state of emergency as soon as the current circumstances have changed.

The people of Egypt are cheering right now, and I feel with them. The entire government is gone, Mubarak himself has fled to Sharm el Sheikh after his infuriating speech last night. Now the army is in power, and while the people have embraced them as brothers from day one, nobody quite knows what they are up to. If they are honest about wanting to serve their country, they will help establishing a democratic government. But it was the army who brought Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak in power in the first place.

Thoughts?
 
What you mention at the end there.... As long as the Army calls the shots it will be the same shit over and over. While Sadat improved international relations (was assassinated over his peace with Israel) and Mubarak maintained that and strong relations with the U.S... Dictators are dictators....
 
It's really anyone's guess what will happen next. If the army likes to help establish democracy, I guess they have the power to do so. But the tradition for democracy in the region isn't very strong, so my position for now is the one of the skeptical observer.
 
Obviously the big fear is an Islamic state (ala Iran), I hope I am right in thinking that will not happen. 
 
bearfan said:
Obviously the big fear is an Islamic state (ala Iran), I hope I am right in thinking that will not happen.   
Click to expand...

That would mean trouble indeed. An Islamic state with a direct border against Israel, and with a broken relationship with the US?  :help:

One should not forget that the reason why Mubarak got in power, was that the previous president was murdered - after negotiating a peace treaty with Israel. Maybe the new leaders, whoever they will be, feel they need to confront Israel stronger to satisfy the people?
 
It's hard to say, there are certainly people in Egypt who would like to see a much harder stand with Israel, but on the other hand, there is a large commercial middle class who would see the economic downside to that.  I hope that will be enough of a moderating influence on the new government.
 
Right now, the biggest threat for democracy is the military. They can choose to intervene if they don't favour the developments.

I think the threat of an Islamist state is being exaggarated, especially when it comes to the Muslim Brotherhood. Yes, they were the founders of modern Islamism, and yes, they do have radicals in their wings. But they mostly represent a moderate, conservative (as in, anti-radical) piety that is practiced by a significant number of Egyptians, if not the majority. If democracy is to be taken seriously, they must participate - else, there will be many disappointed Muslims.
 
NOW is the time for international pressure.

This is when western nations could really show they care about Average Joe Muhammad and come in and offer everything aside from the moon to help establish true, free elections in Egypt; whoever's come to power will have fresh in their minds what the people can do when they decide they've had enough. Yes, Egypt may choose to become an Islamist state, and that is certainly a possibility.

However, do they deserve the right to choose? Welcoming Egypt to the democratic world properly may help sway the common folk a little closer to cooperation. Let's help them get their democracy going properly, and then we'll see what they choose.
 
Perun said:
Right now, the biggest threat for democracy is the military. They can choose to intervene if they don't favour the developments.

I think the threat of an Islamist state is being exaggarated, especially when it comes to the Muslim Brotherhood. Yes, they were the founders of modern Islamism, and yes, they do have radicals in their wings. But they mostly represent a moderate, conservative (as in, anti-radical) piety that is practiced by a significant number of Egyptians, if not the majority. If democracy is to be taken seriously, they must participate - else, there will be many disappointed Muslims.
Click to expand...

Of course they must take part, if the people wants it - and it doesn't look like they want to seize power through a coup. I don't see Egypt turning into another Iran any time soon. Still, it is too early to celebrate - Egypt might turn into a democracy, or another military-controlled dictatorship - or something else. My impression is that the protesters have been united by the desire to get rid of the current regime - but not much else.
 
Eddies Wingman said:
My impression is that the protesters have been united by the desire to get rid of the current regime - but not much else.
Click to expand...

ZING! That is exactly the problem. It's what turned Russia and Cuba communist and Iran theocratic. The people had one single desire, to get rid of their leader and their corrupt regime, always thinking to themselves, "whatever will come, it can't be worse". The only difference here is that Egypt does not have a charismatic figurehead to pocket the movement like Lenin, Castro or Khomeini did. On the up side, a pluralistic discourse can help anchoring democratic thought in the minds of people. On the downside, now that their only common denominator - the wish for Mubarak to go - has vanished the movement can simply crumble - or worse. You need to consider that what cemented Iran's turn towards theocracy was not Khomeini's charisma or the prudence of the intellectuals, but Saddam attacking Iran, uniting the Iranian people against a common enemy. Egypt is surrounded by neighbours who are not very favourable of a popular government there. Israel is one of them, for obvious reasons. Libya is another one, because observers report that Qaddafi is fearing for his throne. It is now time for Europe and the US to back Egypt, for all those and other reasons.
 
Perun said:
...Egypt does not have a charismatic figurehead to pocket the movement like Lenin, Castro or Khomeini did...
Click to expand...

Yet. It's possible for a leader to emerge now - but unless someone comes forward in the next day or two, that chance will disappear.

I'm cautiously optimistic that the military will do the right thing and let a civilian government take power. From what I've heard, they've done a good job of staying out of the way so far (as much as they can, given the circumstances).

I don't know if a Muslim gov't will form (as opposed to secular), but I hope for the best. I read stories about, during this crisis, Xians guarding mosques while Muslims prayed, and Muslims guarding the churches for the Xians. It seems there may be some hope that even a Muslim gov't will at least be tolerant. The most Islamist figures will have a tough time seizing power (in the short run) with so much attention from the rest of the world.

A final disclaimer: I haven't paid as much attention to all the Egypt news as maybe I should have, so if I've said anything dumb, let me know. :bigsmile:
 
SinisterMinisterX said:
I'm cautiously optimistic that the military will do the right thing and let a civilian government take power. From what I've heard, they've done a good job of staying out of the way so far (as much as they can, given the circumstances).
Click to expand...

The Egyptian military, supposedly neutral in the conflict, has been accussed of  secretly torturing and keeping many civilian protestants, journalists and NGO workers in detention for days. You never know what happens outside the Al Jazeera stream.
 
Eddies Wingman said:
It's really anyone's guess what will happen next. If the army likes to help establish democracy, I guess they have the power to do so. But the tradition for democracy in the region isn't very strong, so my position for now is the one of the skeptical observer.
Click to expand...

I've only read a small bit about the situation, but the way I understand it, the police was protesting only because their pay started to decline.  Peace and order won't be brought in through an army.  It has to come from the knowledge of the people.  Everyone seems to easy to forgive the army.  Like Wingman, I'm skeptical.
 
Perun said:
ZING! That is exactly the problem. It's what turned Russia and Cuba communist and Iran theocratic.
Click to expand...

Um... I thought Cuba turned cummunist, because the U.S flipped shit and the only other super power that could help them was the USSR and Russia's Bolchevic revolution WAS to make Russia communist...
 
Onhell said:
Um... I thought Cuba turned cummunist, because the U.S flipped shit and the only other super power that could help them was the USSR and Russia's Bolchevic revolution WAS to make Russia communist...
Click to expand...

That is true, but I'm not so sure the Bolsheviks got the support they needed because your average Russian really wanted Communism, but  because they were tired of the hardships under the Tsar. But of course, that revolution was one with a defined leadership who knew what they wanted.
 
Onhell said:
Um... I thought Cuba turned cummunist, because the U.S flipped shit and the only other super power that could help them was the USSR and Russia's Bolchevic revolution WAS to make Russia communist...
Click to expand...

Spot on for Cuba. But that was my point, actually: All Cubans wanted Batista to go, they didn't know where to go from there. As for Russia, your average Igor the factory worker just wanted things to change. There was a lot of uncoordinated unrest going throughout Russia for a decade before 1917, it was just Lenin who tied things together. Nobody was thinking about Communism until Lenin started talking about it, but everybody thought about removing the Tsar.
SixesAlltheway said:
The Egyptian military, supposedly neutral in the conflict, has been accussed of  secretly torturing and keeping many civilian protestants, journalists and NGO workers in detention for days. You never know what happens outside the Al Jazeera stream.
Click to expand...

Incidentally, I'd like to know your source on this. Not because I don't believe you, but because my main sources at the moment are indeed Al Jazeera and the Guardian (and a lengthy conversation with an Egyptian). I'd certainly like to broaden my view.
 
Soldiers meet with resistance from protesters who refuse to leave Tahrir Square. Last bits of euphoria or first sign of unease?
Here's something you guys might appreciate. There is an article on english.aljazeera.net written by Mark LeVine, whom some of you may know as the author of the book Heavy Metal Islam, which was also advertised on the Iron Maiden website not too long ago (I still haven't gotten around to reading it, unfortunately). It is an eyewitness account of the happenings at Tahrir Square shortly before and during Mubarak's resignation. There is a small passage in the article that goes as follows:

At around 7.30am I headed back to the Zamalek neighbourhood across the July 26 bridge that meets the square and took a shower and had breakfast. I met an old friend and musical comrade, Shung, the founder of the Egyptian oriental metal band Beyond East, with whom I headed to the square. He was wearing an Iron Maiden shirt and as soon as we got there I snapped a photo and sent it to Maiden's manager, who has been very supportive while I've been here. It's nice to know that people care even as they are in the middle of the craziness of their own lives, which in Maiden's case happens to be the middle of a world tour. We talked about music and life and how incredible and crazy this was. "It's really metal," was both of our opinions.
Click to expand...

Kind of makes you proud to be a Maiden fan.  :edmetal:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top