Stock market crash : 1929 and now

____no5

Free Man
I was waiting someone to start a thread about it, but in my big surprise no-one did
To begin, one interesting statistic it is that all major stock market crashes did happen during October
and if I remember good they are six
But this one it is possible the most terrible after 1929's one

What is happening in our days it is probably something terribly important -just courently is too fresh
for people to realise it, is maybe something that will change vastly global political equilibrium

People from States are the most concerned in this thing, but as global economy is still strongly attached
to dollar, as global banking appears to be like the domino game this concerns us all.

Suddently, is not important who's gonna be elected for president Obama /McCain.

I was 15 years old, in August 1991 when I've heard on the radio about the coup d'etat in Russia
and nobody was realising what was going to happen in that time; a domino that would change the world

Today I recall this day of August and it seems to me similar; I don't know what exactly will happen but I feel
it's gonna be very important ; let's hope that it will be the less painfull possible regarding human lives

Crowd_outside_nyse.jpg


* 1929 : my thought was how could that crash be related with the WWII
 
____no5 said:
* 1929 : my thought was how could that crash be related with the WWII

Very simple. The global recession that followed brought Germany -among many other countries- into a huge crisis. In 1932, 6 million Germans were unemployed. The people did no longer trust or support the democratic government and wanted a strong leadership, which they thought uncle Adolf could provide.
 
ok, my first thought was confirmed, there is a strong link between 1929 and WWII

so, today on the one hand we do have the experience to face that crise;
the crise will be faced by a sort of state interventionism
700 billion dollars in States, some 300 I think in Europe, the G7 try to plan common action
plus, voices from everywhere speak about future ineffectivity of the Paulson plan
In Continental Europe we are more used to a less manumitted capitalism, but in States that's probably
signify a sad relolution ; that's why my coherence about USSR's fall and the domino that followed
back some 20 years ago

what happens today is so serious that can even lead to the end of capitalism, at least as we knew it until now
and of course a new huge war in coming years
 
This is something I noticed. The "roaring 20's," a time of great wealth in America occured affter WWI, then "the great depression" and then WWII happened and then the prosperity of the 50s and in a way to this day.

America's, capitalism's, market crashes are part of the game. The reason there wasn't a major one since 1929 is because of measures taken to try and prevent one and as we can see it only delayed it, but it was bound to happen again, I think.
 
Translation from an article I'm courently reading :

HOW IT STARTED :

The crisis began, when the real estate market in the U.S. started to fall in early 2007.
It happened, however, perceived in the stock after the August 2007 with the first mortgage of loan defaults.
They, revealed the flimsy foundations of the mortgage market high-risk (subprimes).
These loans that issued uncontrolably, banks were «packaging» them to complex or structured bonds by the method of securitization. Then, they were selling them to institutional investors (insurance companies, pension funds, mutual etc.).

The financial credit bond insurance companies (CDS) made that process easier. The products issued to cover the risk that the issuer goes bankrupt, so as to feel safe that he would buy the structured bonds.
Practically, however, this thread passed the credit risk throughout the financial market.
This vicious cycle explains why the problem was not confined to the subprime market (EUR 1.3 trillion.), but spread to almost all forms of loans (amounting to several trillion.). securitized everything: corporate loans, consumer, student, municipal loans, etc.

This accounting wealth is estimated at 63 trillion. dollars or about as much merit goods and services produced in the world during 14 months (52 trillion. Dollar has been the annual global GDP).
It was (the accounting wealth ) this theoretical richness (or leveraged as they say) and fed growth in previous years. Created sales and profits for companies, translated into bonus billion for the golden boys and now lost. That is why the stock has already lost 28 trillion. dollars in terms of market capitalization.

WHY GIANTS FELL DOWN :

Investment banks have collapsed because investing with a more than 10 to 1 (40 and stood at 60 to 1) loans to equity. For each U.S. dollar that were in the safe, they had committed 40-60 dollars.
When the values of their investments fell, they were found to owe more than their own funds. The problem happened because the domino was not limited to investment banks but also in commercial (ie those who base their object is to take deposits and grant loans).

This was the responsibility of the political leadership of the United States. In 1999 the law Glass-Steagall was repealed, a law that was adopted by Congress in 1933 to stop the speculative practices of the mid-'20 that led to the crash of 1929.
With this done, large commercial banks could now do what the investment banks were doing.

Practically, something incredible happened: the bank advised its clients to buy the one investment product that it (the bank) manufactured and sold. Indeed, it was receiving a supply as well, as «salesman» to what it produced.

very strange ...Why Clinton to repeale this Glass-Steagall law, just in the end of his service ??
it would had been more logical to me if the repeale had taken place under a republicain goverment...
 
Glass-Steagal was pushed through by the Republican Congress.  Contrary to popular belief, the president of the United States does not make laws.  He merely approves or disapproves them.
 
First of all, thank you for bringing up this topic No.5, which has been a concern of mine since the US stock crash.  This world stock problem has been an issue in Canadian politics and the upcoming election this Tuesday may be largely influenced by the global economy.  According to a Yahoo article I've read, Canada has the best banking system in the world.  The accuracy of this claim is unknown to me, but I do know the Canadian economy and banking system has measures in place unlike that of USA.  So I'm hoping we won't be hit like our neighbours to the south.  I feel bad for the average Joe's who've lost their life savings.  :(
 
Canada's banking system is incredibly solid, because we have done a great job making sure our banks stick to banking, and not to...whatever the fuck they were in in the USA.
 
Genghis Khan said:
First of all, thank you for bringing up this topic No.5, which has been a concern of mine since the US stock crash.  This world stock problem has been an issue in Canadian politics and the upcoming election this Tuesday may be largely influenced by the global economy.  According to a Yahoo article I've read, Canada has the best banking system in the world.  The accuracy of this claim is unknown to me, but I do know the Canadian economy and banking system has measures in place unlike that of USA.  So I'm hoping we won't be hit like our neighbours to the south.  I feel bad for the average Joe's who've lost their life savings.  :(

If the average Joe was smart, he had most of his cash life savings in an FDIC insured savings account. Anywho it is a good time to buy Ford which closed at $2.06 or GM which closed at $4.38. I would buy Gm at that price,  plus they are in merger talks with Chrystler. I think GM can bounce out of this, especially with the price of gas coming down, and a shift into small to midsized cars.

  As far as our banking system in the states, our politicians let the banks regulate themselves.  :eek: They  also deregulated most of the power and energy companies. Surprise , surprise my light bill has doubled. I hate the  fucking republicans we have now.
 
NigelTufnel said:
If the average Joe was smart, he had most of his cash life savings in an FDIC insured savings account. Anywho it is a good time to buy Ford which closed at $2.06 or GM which closed at $4.38. I would buy Gm at that price,  plus they are in merger talks with Chrystler. I think GM can bounce out of this, especially with the price of gas coming down, and a shift into small to midsized cars.

I wouldn't touch Ford or GM with a 10 foot pole right now.  I don't see any of the Big 3 surviving the next 5 years.  I really don't.  They're just not...competitive, anymore.  Why the hell do I want a 30 mpg Chrysler when I can have an 80 mpg VW at the exact same price?  Hell, the Aston Martin DB9 gets the same mileage on a highway as most small Ford hatchbacks.  It's retarded.
 
Genghis Khan said:
According to a Yahoo article I've read, Canada has the best banking system in the world.  The accuracy of this claim is unknown to me, but I do know the Canadian economy and banking system has measures in place unlike that of USA. 

I've read that too, it must be true  :)

Genghis Khan said:
So I'm hoping we won't be hit like our neighbours to the south. 

it gonna affect the entire world Genghis  :(
let's only hope no new big war will be in the end of this thread

NigelTufnel said:
  As far as our banking system in the states, our politicians let the banks regulate themselves.  

I've been told that the average americain thinks exactly like you, but what you propose is just imposible right now
the introduction of plan Paulson was for saving the people (from much more worst) not saving the banks
in the end of this tunel, after some years from now
things gonna never be the same,
but for the moment we try to get out from it

back to  plan Paulson : though its principles are supposed to be based in solidarity, it appears that it was planned under a ridiculous sloppiness : that the 700 bil have been invented just because they were looking a really big number -not after some study -and this is what I am afraid the most ; there is no real plan
 
The Americans don't even have Ministers during keymoments the IMF meeting. Not very responsible! 

Dutch Finance Minister criticises US attitude

The Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos has criticised the US government's attitude to the financial crisis at the International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington. He says the Americans see the problems on the financial markets as a business hazard and not as an important economic problem that has to be resolved.

Mr Bos was surprised that top officials represented the government at important moments during the conference. He says the British do realise there is a need to monitor the financial sector more closely, but the Americans do not.

He was pleased with the appeal by the IMF members to play a more important role in shaping a new financial structure. If there has ever been an opportunity for the IMF to plan a leading role it is now.


+


IMF must lead efforts to resolve crisis -Dutch minister

AMSTERDAM, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos said on Saturday the IMF must play a leading role in efforts to resolve the financial crisis as he lamented a lack of global leadership.

Bos also likened the crisis to the post-World War Two period when the IMF had been established to help build prosperity, improve international payment systems and stimulate development.

"We stand now in front of a similar challenge again where the whole architecture of how the international (community) handles money has come under discussion," Bos told Dutch TV.

"We must again look at such a worldwide-working institute such as the IMF."

Speaking from Washington where he is attending meetings of the world's richest nations, Bos said as the world's largest economy with the largest financial sector, the U.S. should also show leadership.

"But America is at the moment less than four weeks away from elections and that essentially paralyses America in her leading role and that is exceptionally tragic. It is the worst possible moment," Bos said.

The minister had on Friday criticised the G7 response to the financial crisis and its plans aimed at unfreezing credit markets and helping banks raise capital.

"There is great unity within the G7 over the goals that the countries want to achieve, but there is nothing in the statement over the instruments with which those goals will be met," Bos was quoted as saying by Dutch daily De Volkskrant.
 
____no5 said:
back to  plan Paulson : though its principles are supposed to be based in solidarity, it appears that it was planned under a ridiculous sloppiness : that the 700 bil have been invented just because they were looking a really big number -not after some study -and this is what I am afraid the most ; there is no real plan

Back in the Elections thread, I think I commented on this a week or two ago.  That had been my problem all along, that they were rushing into the situation.  Now that it is 'in force' the world looks at the US for their sloppiness in the plan.  However, just a few weeks back, the world criticized the US for not acting quickly enough, and for the fact that every day they waited, it was worse for the markets world-wide.  So, damned internationally if you do, damned internationally if you don't. 

I saw a great metaphor for the economy the other night on CNN (or maybe it was The Daily Show)-- each of the measures that the government has put into place is like an antibiotic; they take time to have an affect.  Some measures will be felt in 1-4 months, some in 9-12...over all, the real 'upswing' won't be felt for 6-12 months.

Some of my thoughts:  I am pretty sure that part of the reason that Germany went off to war after the Great Depression was from many of the things that happened to them after WWI, so I don't think that the market problems the entire reason for that to happen.  The war had a positive effect on the market (if memory serves), but the US can find a war around every corner if they want for that. 

Personally, I feel like the market issues are a hazard of business. Time and again it has been proven that outside influences (ie gov't) have a negative long term affect on the economy, so when it can be left alone, it should be.  That is not to say that there shouldn't be regulations on it, that is the problem here, and where the government should be sticking its fingers.  I think the idea of freeing up credit for worthy businesses to get operations loans is a great idea, and I am hoping that is what the 700b really is going to facilitate, but I don't like the idea of the government just tossing cash to failing banks/financial institutions just because the market is falling on its face... the old saying about good money after bad seems to keep popping into my head. 

Also, I don't really know what day-to-day life was like during the Great Depression, but where I am at, day to day life hasn't changed at all.  No one is turning off their internet, the satellite, or any other frivolities.  No one is really worrying about food, fuel, or jobs here.  Now, where I am at, it has been a 'black hole' of an economy for the last 8-10 years (funny, almost perfectly coincides with Bush coming to office).  Here, we just aren't really affected by the market falling, other that watching 401k's and IRA's fall flat-- but unless you are retiring next month, its really not a big deal.  Granted, eventually, we will maybe see some 'trickle down' affect from the market, but most everyone here lives paycheck to paycheck, and as long as the gov't relieves the 'credit crunch' it won't be a problem-- hell, we are still writing loans, every day, for people to buy motorcycles and four wheelers (talk about frivolous!)

Oh, and my opinion on the 401k and such?  Buy, buy, buy!!  It never stays down forever, and those of us that are young enough to wait a few years for it to rebound, this is a great time to be investing (tho wisely).  I know that it has been said about major auto mfg's, but I don't know how save those are-- mergers are in the works, and that doesn't make me feel safe.  Find a good mutual fund, stick to it!
 
Wasted155 said:
Back in the Elections thread, I think I commented on this a week or two ago.  That had been my problem all along, that they were rushing into the situation.  Now that it is 'in force' the world looks at the US for their sloppiness in the plan.  However, just a few weeks back, the world criticized the US for not acting quickly enough, and for the fact that every day they waited, it was worse for the markets world-wide.  So, damned internationally if you do, damned internationally if you don't. 

I wouldn't say that. Basically I'm pro-Paulson in its principles, just got a bit of dissapointed to read that it was not a real plan,
only another "whizz-bang" to calm down the crise
-let's hope I'm wrong and those 700b will not be taxed for nothing
On the other hand, as Forostar showed us, Mr.Paulson was missing from IMF meeting....
you see, there is an ensemble of facts since some years that give US a bad image,
but if you ask me I prefer a slop Paulson plan, to no plan at all
 
Yeah, I can understand some of the disgruntlement towards the US on finances and all (tho, the world keeps investing in it).  Personally, I prefer a good, well thought out plan that takes more time to implement, rather than a sloppy quick plan.  Throwing money at a bad situation doesn't thrill me (especially as a tax payer providing the funds for this).
 
Well, in comparison to what was originally desired by Paulson and crew, this is a better set up.  Had the plan gone through as first proposed, there would be no oversight.  Ever.  At all.  That was a really bad idea and its good they took time to make a better one.  Is this one the best?  Look back at some of LC's comments in the Election thread, I'm leaning towards those thoughts-- to find a way to use that money to help the homeowners make their payments, not to bail out the banks that made poor choices in business.  Money at the top makes a slow path towards the bottom (people like me that spend it all).  Helping homeowners would do many things:  keep them in their houses, give them a chance to spend other money, lessen the amount of houses that are foreclosed- which would keep the market from being flooded with low priced homes, which would help to increase market value of homes which would increase the value of the investments in those loans.  But, what the hell, this is what we have, so we shall see what happens with it. 
 
Wasted, I still have the idea that you keep separating the banks from the people who have money in them. Not necessary rich people. Many of them are homeowners. It's connected.
 
Bank accounts are Federally insured, up to $100,000 per person, per bank.  The bank can fail, and the funds will (should be) still available.  So, yes, I am separating the banks from the people that have accounts there.  If the Feds can come up with 700b to bail out the banks, they damn well should be able to cover the insured accounts.

And, again, I am asking that if anyone be bailed out, let it be the people that are paying the taxes used for the bail out, not the banks that just fucked everything up.  Reward the ones that are working hard, and trying to keep their houses, not the ones that made the poor choices, then upon news of the bail out go on vacation. 
 
Meanwhile:

Final statement from euro zone summit in Paris

PARIS (Reuters) - Leaders of euro zone countries held an emergency meeting on Sunday to decide pan-European measures aimed at propping up the battered financial sector.

Here is the full final statement released after the summit.

DECLARATION ON A CONCERTED EUROPEAN ACTION PLAN OF THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES

1) Financial systems contribute essentially to the well functioning of our economies and are therefore a necessary prerequisite for growth and a high level of employment. Millions of depositors have trusted their wealth to our financial institutions. The consequences of the current financial market crisis jeopardize the crucial economic role of the financial system.

2) Since the beginning of the crisis, we have acted to address the challenges posed to our financial system: we have committed ourselves to take decisive action and use all available tools to support relevant institutions and prevent their failure and effectively acted in several cases ; we have increased transparency and disclosure on banks exposure ; we have enhanced retail deposit guarantee protection.

3) Further concerted action is urgently needed given the persistent problems of bank financing and the contagion from the financial crisis to the real economy.

4) We confirm today our commitment to act together in a decisive and comprehensive way in order to restore confidence and proper functioning of the financial system, aiming at restoring appropriate and efficient financing conditions for the economy. In parallel, Member States agree to coordinate measures to address the consequences of the financial crisis on the real economy, in line with 7th of October Ecofin conclusions. In particular, we welcome the EIB's decision to mobilize 30 billions - to support European SME's and its commitment to step up its ability to intervene in infrastructure projects.

5) As members of the Euro area, we share a common responsibility and have to contribute to a common European approach. We invite our European partners to adopt the following principles so that the European Union as a whole can act in a united manner and avoid that national measures adversely affect the functioning of the single market and the other member States.

This requires European Union and Euro area governments, central banks and supervisors to agree to a coordinated approach aiming at : - ensuring appropriate liquidity conditions for financial institutions ; - facilitating the funding of banks, which is currently constrained ; - providing financial institutions with additional capital resources so as to continue to ensure the proper financing of the economy ; - allowing for an efficient recapitalization of distressed banks; - ensuring sufficient flexibility in the implementation of accounting rules given current exceptional market circumstances; - enhancing cooperation procedures among European countries.

In the current exceptional circumstances, we stress the need for the Commission to continue to act quickly and apply flexibility in state aid decisions, continuing to uphold the principles of the single market and of the state aid regime.

Ensuring appropriate liquidity conditions for financial institutions.

6) We welcome the recent decision by the European Central Bank and other Central Banks in the world to cut their interest rates.

7) We also welcome the decisions by the European Central Bank to improve the conditions for the refinancing of banks and to provide more longer term funding. We look forward to Central Banks considering all ways and means to react flexibly to the current market environment.

We welcome the intention of the ECB and the Eurosystem to react flexibly to the current market environment, in particular in considering to further improve its collateral framework with regard to the eligibility of commercial paper. Facilitating the funding of banks, which is currently constrained.

-8)- With a view to complementing the actions taken by the European Central Bank in the interbank money market, the Governments of the Euro Area are ready to take proper action in a concerted and coordinated manner to improve market functioning over longer term maturities. The objective of such initiatives should be to address funding problems of liquidity constrained solvent banks.

We welcome the initiatives put forward in some member states to facilitate medium term funding of banks notably through purchase of high quality assets or through swaps of government securities. The worsening of financial conditions in the last four weeks requires additional coordinated actions.

To this aim, Governments would make available for an interim period and on appropriate commercial terms, directly or indirectly, a Government guarantee, insurance, or other similar arrangements of new medium term (up to 5 years) bank senior debt issuance. Depending on domestic market conditions in each country, actions could be targeted at some specific and relevant types of debt issuance.

In all cases, these actions will be designed in order to avoid any distortion in the level playing field and possible abuse at the expense of non beneficiaries of these arrangements. As a consequence: - the price of those instruments will reflect at least their true value with respect to normal market conditions ; - all the financial institutions incorporated and operating in our countries and subsidiary of foreign institutions with substantial operations will be eligible, provided they meet the regulatory capital requirements and other non discriminatory objective criteria ; - Governments may impose further conditions for the beneficiaries of these arrangements, including conditions to ensure an adequate support to real economy; - the scheme will be limited in amount, temporary and will be applied under close scrutiny of financial authorities, until December 31 2009.

While acting quickly as required by circumstances, we will coordinate in providing these guarantees as significant differences in national implementation could have a counter-productive effect, creating distortions in the global banking markets. We will also work in cooperation with the European Central Bank so as to ensure consistency with the management of liquidity by the Eurosystem and compatibility with the operational framework of the Eurosystem.

Providing financial institutions with additional capital resources so as to continue to ensure the proper financing of the economy.

9) So as to allow financial institutions to continue to ensure the proper financing of the Eurozone economy, each Member State will make available to financial institutions Tier 1 capital, e.g. by acquiring preferred shares or other instruments including non dilutive ones. Price conditions shall take into account the market situation of each involved institution. Governments commit themselves to provide capital when needed in appropriate volume while favoring by all available means the raising of private capital. Financial institutions should be obliged to accept additional restrictions, notably to preclude possible abuse of such arrangements at the expense of non beneficiaries.

10) Given the exceptional market circumstances, we urge national supervisors, in accordance with the spirit of Basel 2 rules, to implement prudential rules also with a view to stabilizing the financial system.

Allowing for an efficient recapitalization of distressed banks.

11) Governments remain committed to support the financial system and therefore to avoid the failure of relevant financial institutions, through appropriate means including recapitalization. In doing so, we will be watchful regarding the interest of taxpayers and ensure that existing shareholders and management bear the due consequences of the intervention. Emergency recapitalization of a given institution shall be followed by an appropriate restructuring plan.

Ensuring sufficient flexibility in the implementation of accounting rules given current exceptional market circumstances.

12) We welcome the recent initiatives of the Commission regarding conclusions of the 7th October Ecofin regarding the classification of financial instruments by banks between their trading and banking books, notably to ensure a level playing field with our competitors.

Under the current exceptional circumstances, financial and non-financial institutions should be allowed as necessary to value their assets consistently with risk of default assumptions rather than immediate market value which, in illiquid markets may no longer be appropriate.

We ask the competent authorities to take the next steps within the coming days. Enhancing cooperation among European countries.

13) In such circumstances, efficient crisis management requires constant and immediate monitoring. We will therefore set up and strengthen procedures allowing the exchange of information between our Governments, the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission, the President of the European Central Bank and the President of the Eurogroup. We look forward the European Council on next Wednesday to setting up a mechanism to improve crisis management between European countries.

14) The Ecofin Council with the support of the Commission and in cooperation with the European Central Bank will report in due time to the European Council on the implementation of these decisions.
 
Back
Top