There is little to support that hope. Most things point to the oppose. Granted, the Russians aren't interested in an all-out war with NATO, yet anyway, but do I think they would back down if directly challenged? Not much point to it, rather the contrary.
I don't think that's true. I think Russia would be less likely to fight Ukraine, but the USA's pattern of protecting Israel isn't based on Israel's nuke/no nuke status.
I think it's the opposite. putin may invade Baltic States if the West will continue to half measure, continue to show weakness and impotence. If he will hear 'strong condemns' but will not see actions taken to strengthen Eastern NATO flank. That's how things work in real life. Mobs attack loners and weak. if putin will not be stopped in Ukraine, then situation will surely escalate even more.
I agree with this, but two things can be true at the same time. If NATO directly interfere militarily, that may trigger an all out conflict and baltic invasions, and as you say, weakness also invites it.
This is where I am mentally. What’s happening in Ukraine is disgusting. But what I’m terrified of most is another pitched Cuban Missile Crisis, only this time the line gets crossed. Putin might not be crazy or suicidal, but he’s also prideful and won’t be seen as weak. So the question is which of his character traits override the other: how much is he willing to risk to save his pride?
The Baltic States are Article 5 territory. As long as NATO is not at war with Russia, they're protected by the threat of NATO force. If NATO *initiates* a war with Russia, it guarantees, well, war, and that means that the threat of NATO force is realized. You're right in that if Putin gets what he wants he's going to bully people who aren't aligned but western friendly. That's why Sweden and Finland hastened to join NATO.
